What about gasoline?/Inna Sovsun's collage
Kilometer lines of cars, 10 liters in one hand or just eloquent zeros on the information board – it's all about how it is now possible (or rather impossible) to fill up a car in Ukraine.
The “gasoline” story clearly demonstrates what it takes to ignore security issues for many years, including in the field of energy.
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Playing with fire
Let's take a look at the statistics. What was given in the task of Ukraine's energy security? Previously, we imported 80% of the consumed gasoline and diesel (70% from Russia and Belarus, 10% by sea from other countries). They produced only a fifth part, moreover, only at one oil refinery – Kremenchug.
That is, already after the start of the war with Russia in 2014, after the final understanding of what Belarus Lukashenko was in 2020, the supply of oil products to Ukraine was 70% dependent on “unfriendly countries” (and we skip here the memories of a difficult discussion in which the authorities ignored the need to reduce dependence on Belarusian supplies …).
Experts have long noted that it is necessary to replace supplies, because the position dependent on Russia and Belarus is our weak spot. But the desire of some to sit on long-standing streams, while others – not to upset voters by rising prices – did us a disservice at the most crucial moment. Now.
A full-scale war has begun. Gasoline consumption decreased by 30%, but imports from those who want (and always wanted) to destroy us also disappeared – minus 70% of supplies, Russian missiles hit the Kremenchug refinery – we subtract another 20%, all ports are blocked – we lose another 10% of the consumed fuel.
As a result, the system of gasoline supply to Ukraine was actually completely destroyed. Let's add the government price cap introduced last year, which immediately caused a flurry of criticism.
Ukraine urgently reorganized for the supply of fuel by land transport from Europe. It worked for almost 2 months. But the shelling of the Kremenchug oil refinery changed everything (what a surprise). We were not ready for it, although experts talked about it in the first days of the invasion.
What to do?
But these are all bitter lessons from the past. Now we need to saturate the Ukrainian market with fuel as soon as possible. How?
First, consider the price factor. Let go of state regulation and give an opportunity to everyone who can bring more fuel into Ukraine, but does not want to do it because of the marginal price.
To work at a loss when you are not compensated for anything – none of the traders will. Nothing personal just business. In addition, free pricing will balance the market. After all, the demand for consumption will decrease among those who need to fill up the car right now – it is not vital. fuel truck drivers.
It is possible to overcome the physical limitations of possible deliveries by land transport by reversing the oil product pipeline. It is not easy to implement, but simple solutions and quick results in wartime are a luxury. In addition, it will require work with Hungary. It's difficult, but you should at least try.
Looking for an alternative
We also don't forget that we, as an agrarian country, can turn to bio-alternatives. Bioethanol and biodiesel are no longer just about environmental friendliness, they are an alternative to importing petroleum products if they are added to gasoline or diesel by 10%.
According to a BRDO study, only rapeseed and soybeans exported in 2017-2018 could replace up to 35% of imported diesel. The possibility of temporarily limiting the export of bioethanol and biodiesel to Ukraine should be considered in order to saturate the domestic market and ease price pressure.
Enough of populism and unprofessionalism
And finally, it is time for individual politicians, who largely shape the economic policy of the state, to stop manipulation. The following is a statement without comment that will not be relevant either during the war or after the victory. due to shortages, black market fuels and rising oil prices. Obviously, in a situation of such uncertainty, the abolition of taxes could not solve any problem. In conditions of shortage… what I proposed to do was to work with state interventions. That is, to buy fuel and sell it through gas stations at a fixed price in such a way as to saturate demand. Taking on the state some part of the price and stabilize the price. This is a very complex and labor intensive process. This is a more complex process than linear tax abolition. Every minute you need to control everything, – Daniil Getmantsev.
Such statements are either flagrant incompetence, or conscious work for the enemy. Neither the first nor the second we can not afford.
