Katkov suggested with what weapons the Armed Forces of Ukraine could strike at the airfield in Crimea./Channel 24 collage , versions of how the Ukrainian defenders could have done it are being heard from everywhere.
ShareFbTwiTelegramViberShareFbTwiTelegramViber
The most probable are 3 options for the causes of explosions near Novofedorovka, proposed by various authoritative sources. They were commented on for Channel 24 by military expert, chief editor of Defense Express Oleg Katkov. In addition, he put forward another fourth version.
What are the options
- Analysts at Inform Napalm suggested that the Armed Forces of Ukraine first knocked out the Russian air defenses with high-speed HARM anti-radar missiles, and then hit them with ATACMS missiles. However, there is no information that the United States nevertheless transferred such weapons to Ukraine.
- The Institute for the Study of War made an assumption that the Ukrainians could modify their Neptune anti-ship missile system for other purposes and hit the Russian airbase from it.
- The Washington Post put forward a different version. They believe that the explosions in Crimea could be the result of sabotage and the work of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces paired with partisans.
According to Oleg Katkov, in addition to these options, one should also consider the likely use of the Ukrainian Sapsan tactical complex, also known as Grom-2.
However, the expert said that each of mentioned versions have real chances for life. He analyzed each of them in detail.
First of all, he explained that due to the fact that there were 2 powerful and simultaneous explosions at the airfield, you can immediately discard the options for using small-sized kamikaze drones, Bayraktar TB2 and the like. It is physically impossible to organize such large-scale and synchronous explosions with huge destruction.
The version with ATACMS
According to Katkov, the variant of HARM and ATACMS is excellent and absolutely real version. HARM missiles could indeed destroy the radar stations of such complexes as the S-300 and S-400, with which the next launch could be seen.
Such radars see the launch of a ballistic missile, and HARM desperately needs a solution in order to blind them so that the air defense in Crimea does not have time to react. It is important that the air defense did not really work. Most likely, she did not even see such a threat. Thus, the version with ATACMS is real,” the expert explained.
He recalled that on August 9, the same day that the explosions occurred in Crimea, information appeared about a strike on the ammunition storage base in Genichesk. This city is also located at a distance of about 200 kilometers from the demarcation line, that is, the launch range should be 230-250 kilometers, which suggests the presence of long-range missiles in the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Would Neptune cope?
An equally interesting solution was the use of the Ukrainian Neptune. Katkov noted that a version of this SCRC was indeed being developed, which provided for the possibility of hitting ground targets.
According to the expert, a huge argument in favor of this version is that the target, that is, the airfield, is located on the seashore. And for “Neptune” it is extremely easy to fly over the sea, he knows how to do it well, after which he either hits a radio-contrast target, or falls at the given coordinates.
“Technically, it is urgent to complete the “Neptune” in six months more than possible “This version also explains why the air defense did not work – the missile came from the sea and low-altitude. After the defeat of the Moskva cruiser, it has already been proven that Russian air defense can “sleep through” it,” Oleg Katkov believes.
If our special forces did this, they need to erect a monument
The next possible option is sabotage by the Ukrainian SOF. According to the expert, in this case, this special operation should be included in all history books, because they will be able to lay heavy-duty ammunition and make a synchronized detonation – this is a fantastic job.
These people will need to put a monument and name the central streets of cities,” Katkov emphasized.
For understanding, he explained that there is a separate battalion at the military airfield – several hundred people who are exclusively engaged in protecting the base. In addition, there are a lot of posts and surveillance cameras. Moreover, we are not talking about peacetime, but about a real war, when the enemy understands the likelihood of the activities of special forces.
that the radio channel of the explosion could be tritely blocked there,” the military expert emphasized.
That is why he is leaning towards missile strikes on the airfield, and not detonation on the spot.
How possible is the use of the Sapsan
the fourth version is that Ukraine completed the Sapsan OTRK, which is not officially confirmed.
As Katkov said, at the beginning of 2021, the then Minister of Defense Taran reported that this complex was 80% ready for the start of testing. In addition, around the same time, Defense Express also spoke with Deputy Defense Minister Mironyuk, who said that the maximum intensification of work on the Sapsan continues. All the components existed, the composition of the so-called experimental battery was agreed upon. There should have been everything in order to work out all possible situations, start fire tests and put the complex into service in the foreseeable future.
The expert believes that the level of readiness of the OTRK at that time and 1.5 years of work, although almost 6 months of them in the conditions of a full-scale war, create the possibility that the Sapsan was nevertheless completed and made ready for use. Especially if you follow the version of the United States that they did not transfer ATACMS to us, and the attack was carried out with Ukrainian weapons.
Sapsan's work would have been similar to the ATACMS version – first thinning out the missile defense, followed by the strike. This version is even more likely due to the high power of the explosions, because the Sapsan has the largest warhead of all the proposed options – 480 kilograms. For comparison, the ATACMS missile has half the warhead – 225 kilograms.
Katkov emphasize that, despite the realism of all versions, he would like the fourth one to be true.
Then a huge path opens up, given that the Sapsan has a range of 300 kilometers, and at the same time, our hands are not bound by any obligations to the United States, as in the case of ATACMS,” summed up Oleg Katkov.
Explosions in the occupied Crimea: briefly
- On August 9, explosions began at the Saki military airfield near Novofedorovka.
- It was from this airfield that enemy fighters took off and bombers that attacked the south of Ukraine.
- As the Ukrainian Air Force later reported, as a result of the explosions, Russia lost 9 aircraft at once.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense first called the cause of the explosions “the detonation of several ammunition” . Later this version was changed to “violation of fire safety”.
