Europe wants to be independent militarily: is it too late – NYT

The European Union wants to resume the production of ammunition/Collage 24 Channel

Against the backdrop of Trump's possible victory in the US presidential election and the war in Ukraine, the European Union will most likely have to spend more money on its own defense. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already taken the first step in this direction by laying the foundation for a new ammunition plant.

But the move, according to journalists from The New York Times, was a clear reminder to EU leaders how slow their response to a possible future threat to themselves has been. In particular, it will be a year before the new plant can produce 50 thousand shells per year, with hopes of doubling this figure in 2026.

The EU was late to restore ammunition production

Journalists noted that the production of 50,000 shells per year is not enough to help Ukraine in its most difficult period. In addition, the authors of the material noted that the effectiveness of the American aid package is also uncertain. part of Ukraine's territory, he may try to test NATO's commitment to defending its territory in the future.

The Senate's February 13 approval of a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is now being questioned in the House of Representatives. In addition, senior European defense officials have expressed concern about the dangerously low levels of their own arsenals.

The situation is also already being affected by the US presidential elections. European leaders are particularly concerned about President Trump's unpredictability and his apparent willingness to make deals with Putin without involving Ukraine or neighboring countries. They also recognize that even if Trump loses, the era of big aid and arms packages for Ukraine approved by Congress is likely coming to an end.

So, Europe, whose commitment to Ukraine already exceeds US obligations, it will likely be forced to increase its own defense spending and prepare for a reduced US role in NATO.

However, it is unlikely that Europe will be able to replace the United States as a security provider in the near future without significantly increasing military spending above the NATO target of 2% of economic output. Currently, only 11 of the Alliance's 31 members meet this target.

President Trump has criticized the deficit, but European leaders suspect his admiration for Putin and lack of respect for Ukraine are major factors. underlying this.

With all that said, the question goes beyond numbers. Europe's main defense is the US nuclear arsenal, which is deployed in various European countries. However, this protection becomes meaningless if there is any doubt that the United States will actually come to the aid of even the smallest or most vulnerable NATO member.

According to Claudia Mayor, a defense expert German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Europe will not be able to defend itself against Russia in a conventional conflict without US help.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, while acknowledging the damage already done, expressed concern that that any proposal by allies not to defend each other undermines the security of both the United States and Europe, and exposes soldiers on both sides to greater risk.

The head of a new munitions plant believes that it will take Europe decades to rebuild its military and be fully prepared for a potential war with Russia. Since the end of the Cold War, armies have been weakened and arsenals depleted by efforts to support Ukraine. However, even to achieve a satisfactory level, he emphasized, it would take three to four years of increased military spending and production.