Erdogan plays his own game/Getty Images
Convenient moment
Right now, Erdogan believes, the right moment has come for the invasion, because everyone is busy with Russia’s war against Ukraine and everyone needs his attention and participation, which means that he can continue to raise the stakes, bargain and get what he wants in return. Strategy – the more threats you throw on the table, the more you get.
The first and foremost against whom such moves by Erdogan will be the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). For the US, they are a way to counter the influence of the Islamic State in the region. It is they who guard the prisons with the terrorists of this organization and, together with them, the United States conducts operations against terrorist groups in Syria, including liquidating their leaders.
Turkey decided to announce a military operation in northern Syria after Russia withdrew a significant number of troops from the country because of the war in Ukraine. Turkish military sources say Russian troops, which had the second largest presence in Tal Rifaat, have now largely abandoned the area.
Publicly, this plays against Russia, because it is the Kremlin-friendly Assad regime that rules in Syria and military operations in the northern part of the country are to its detriment. But it seems only in public. For Russia would not mind exchanging its tacit approval of Erdogan's operation for any other concessions to Turkey in its favor elsewhere. Given the lifeless reaction of Russia, it is possible that agreements have already been made, however, their subject is unknown.
The Islamic State also benefits from this, because everyone will be forced to temporarily divert forces from opposing it, which creates its own window of opportunity for it, and it will traditionally take advantage of it bloody.
Ukrainian factor
Russia is distracted by an exhausting war and withdrawing some forces from Syria, so it cannot seriously oppose Turkey's deal, despite the fact that in 2019 it agreed with the Syrian Kurds that Turkey should not get into Manbij.
While Putin will not welcome Erdogan, who thus shows Russia's weakness, he also needs Turkey to maintain his low profile towards Ukraine and may be willing to sacrifice Moscow's deal with the Syrian Kurds.
USA are in a more difficult position given that they are allied with the YPG due to their leading role in the Syrian Democratic Forces coalition sponsored by Washington to defeat the Islamic State.
The last time Erdogan attacked was in 2019, US public opinion was furious that the White House had abandoned its ally, forcing then-President Donald Trump to broker a ceasefire between Turkey and the YPG.
But, as Erdogan apparently sees, US priorities have changed. They also want to keep Ankara relatively neutral towards Ukraine and certainly don't want Turkey to move closer to Russia.
Moreover, Washington wants Erdogan to stop resisting the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Erdogan thinks he is in a strong position to eventually be able to demand even higher prices from Washington for admitting these new members, such as returning to the F-35 fighter program. He certainly expects the White House to turn a blind eye to the capture of these Kurdish pockets, which would still leave most of the YPG territory untouchable under US protection.
Popular War
Of course, Erdogan explains this with a humanitarian goal: as if by capturing these 30 kilometers near the northern border, he will be able to resettle Syrian refugees there, whose presence in Turkey is not enough for the population, which is used by the Turkish opposition.
However, this is more like manipulation , because Erdogan's previous operations, on the contrary, increased the number of refugees. And for resettlement after the capture, you need to rebuild the region. That is, the work for Erdogan's builders will be for years, and all this time the number of refugees in Turkey is increasing. offensive, has all the signs of genocide.
However, the Turkish people like it, finding justification for such cruelty in the pages of distant history. And while the population is applauding, Erdogan will kill, resettle and assimilate the Kurds.
Will there be an invasion?
Is Erdogan getting something from the US? Or is it part of an even bigger game? It is not clear, but Turkish state propaganda is reinforcing narratives justifying the invasion, and Syrian forces are preparing to resist.
