Does Russia really produce 1.5 million artillery ammunition per month: Defense Express analysis

Production of artillery ammunition in Russia / Collage 24 Channel

Now the network is actively spreading news about an alleged sharp increase in Russia’s production capacity. However, in fact, the statement that the aggressor country can produce 1.5 million artillery shells per month is erroneous.

Information about the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex, which was told by the head of Estonian intelligence Ants Kiviselg, needs a more balanced approach.

We need to be more specific

Experts from Defense Express suggest that Kiviselg either made a mistake during the interview, or the editor of the publication made a mistake when typing the text.

In addition, they (Russians – Channel 24) have large reserves of ammunition – today they can produce about 1.5 million ammunition per month, the head of Estonian intelligence said.

After this he said, the journalist clarified whether we were talking about artillery ammunition.

Yes. This is a basic calculation. They could produce this amount before the war. So far, they have launched almost continuous production at their factories, so they can do even more,” Kiviselg answered.

The fact that there was a slip or typo in the interview is indicated by information from the Main Intelligence Directorate. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, according to plans for 2024, Russia wants to produce 2.1 million ammunition per year. Western sources provide similar data on the capabilities of the aggressor country.

Moreover, probably, of this number, about 0.5 million shells are not new products, but restored from old mobilization stocks. Which once again proves that the figure of 1.5 million new shells per month is completely unrealistic.

Thus, most likely, Ants Kiviselg was referring to the production of 1.5 million artillery ammunition in Russia per year. – noted the experts.

Defense Express also noted that the wording “artillery ammunition” needs to be more specific. After all, this includes everything from 20 mm to 152 mm and above. In addition, there is a big difference between the production of a conventional 23-mm projectile for the ZU-23-2 and a 152-mm projectile for the Msta self-propelled gun.

Because of this discrepancy, it is easy to manipulate the numbers, which is something Russians often do. In March 2023, the president of the enemy country, Vladimir Putin, said that Russia plans to produce 3 million large-caliber artillery ammunition per year.

However, even Russian analysts criticized such plans. After all, if it is possible to achieve maximum voltage at all factories, this will allow the production of only 900 thousand ammunition for artillery in 122 mm and 152 mm calibers per year. The only way to achieve this figure is to recover about 2.1 million more old ammunition per year.

North Korea transfers weapons to Russia

North Korea has given Russia a million artillery shells, which are likely already being used in the war in Ukraine. Since August 2023, 10 arms deliveries from the DPRK to Russia have been recorded.

Scouts believe that these shells will be enough for two months of shelling. North Korea and Russia are in global isolation, and cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow has increased. North Korea is interested in it, because the country does not have enough money.