The most likely candidate from the Democratic party of the United States Joe Biden predicted a victory in the upcoming presidential election. This is evidenced by the data published on the website FiveThirtyEight.
According to the website, Biden is a favorite of confrontation with the current President of the United States Donald trump — he will win the November elections with a probability of 72 percent. The probability of victory of the current head of the White house amounted to 28 percent.
It is noted that similar results were obtained by simulating future elections 40 thousand times to determine which of the candidates wins more often. Shown on the website sample of 100 results gives an idea of the range of scenarios that, according to the model are possible, say the creators of the site.
However, a lot can change over the last 83 days before the election, which will be held on 3 November, said the chief editor of the FiveThirtyEight Nate silver (Nate Silver), writes The Hill. He said that ahead of the candidates are still waiting for the debate, and stressed that no one knows how the situation with coronavirus or the economy in the country in three months.
The publication notes that the presented analysis gives Trump more chances of re-election than other currently available models.
In 2016 FiveThirtyEight reported that then-democratic candidate Hillary Clinton will win the election with a probability of 71 percent. In the end, the US President was Republican Donald trump.
U.S. elections scheduled for November 3, 2020.
