Food prices in Ukraine in 2025 will depend on a number of factors, such as inflation, harvest and others.
ICTV Facts asked a member of the Economic Discussion Club, economist Oleg Pendzin how food prices will change and whether they will rise in Ukraine in 2025.
Food prices in Ukraine
— When we talk about the food basket and the expected price increase in 2025, the budget includes an inflation index of 9.5%. This is the index of growth in consumer prices. But we must understand that this is a general index, because each group of goods will grow differently, — the expert explained.
Food prices directly depend on the 2025 harvest, Oleg Pendzin noted.
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— 2023 was a fruitful year, inflation was at the level of 5.5% for the year. 2024 was not a fruitful year, inflation was 12.2%. That is, the price increase depends on the yield and the total harvest volume. This year, 10 million tons of grain were harvested less, minus 30% of the potato harvest. What's happening with the potatoes? The price has increased sharply.
For example, what is happening with eggs? 50% growth. Why? Because 70% of the cost of an egg is feed. Feed is corn. Corn has sharply increased in price. We have a significant growth in egg prices, — he said.
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Food prices depend on purchasing power
The second very significant factor on which the growth of prices depends is the purchasing power of the population and income, the expert noted.
— A survey by the Razumkov Center says that 44% of Ukrainians have started saving on food and looking for cheaper products. This means that demand for the expensive segment of the food basket is decreasing, — said Oleg Pendzin.
According to the expert, when demand for a product decreases, prices do not rise.
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— For example, meat prices. On average, the food basket has grown by about 14-15%, and meat — only by 2% in a year. Why? Because the expensive segment is in less demand among the population today.
There are studies that show that the richer a person is, the more meat, cheese and dairy products he eats. The poorer, the more bread and potatoes he eats. Look what happens to potatoes — almost twice (price increase, — Ed.), with bread — 15%. The milk package at the level of 14-15% has increased. We can say that cheap products will rise in price faster, and expensive products will rise in price slower, he believes.
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Prices for the 2025 harvest
But everything depends to some extent on the yield. If there is a good harvest, then prices will not rise much. However, there will be a significant increase in prices if there is a weak harvest, the expert said.
— At the beginning of the year, we will have the same trend that we have now. Vegetables will continue to rise in price. We roughly expect that the price of potatoes will rise by at least 30-40%, or even 50% by spring. And then we'll see how it goes, — predicted Oleg Pendzin.
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In his opinion, domestic demand will be higher for vegetables or other cheap segment. The rich and expensive segment will grow significantly less, he suggested.
When the first vegetables from open ground appear on store shelves, then prices will seriously begin to fall, the economist said.
— That is, now there will be a rise in prices for vegetables, the cheap segment, somewhere around May. In May, we will see a fall in prices for vegetables. And these seasonal fluctuations that traditionally exist in Ukraine will begin again, — he explained.
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Food prices: how will imports or the exchange rate affect them
As the expert noted, imports of goods may slightly reduce the growth of prices. At the same time, he does not believe that the exchange rate will greatly affect food prices in Ukraine.
— The exchange rate will not greatly affect them, except for fish. But we eat little of it. We have a very small fish segment, and we don’t eat enough of it anyway. In general, the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate are predictable. There will be no surprises, — Oleg Pendzin summed up.
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