The threat of an offensive from Belarus/Collage of Channel 24 Belarus is actively concentrating its troops on the Ukrainian border, but experts do not see this as a threat of an offensive. Most likely, these are just demonstrations to Putin so that he can see their readiness.
Fyodor Venislavsky, MP and member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, told Channel 24 about this.
Is there a threat of an offensive from Belarus
Venislavsky stressed that if the armed forces of Belarus and their military-political command intend to intervene in the war, they would have done it in the first 2-3 weeks full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“This could have happened in mid-March, because then the situation on the fronts was tense and this would have been the most successful moment of the offensive,” he is convinced.
The deputy notes that now, when the Belarusians saw the significant losses that Russia is suffering, they only make maneuvers, for example, the collection of troops to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and the like, to show demonstrations for Putin, as if they are preparing to enter the war.
Of course, nothing can be finalized, but the Belarusian battalions, which are now standing near the border, are not so combat ready for the active phase of the war. In addition, they are not enough to break through the line of defense that Ukraine has built near the border with Belarus,” Venislavsky explained.
He notes that now Belarus is definitely not a threat that needs to be taken into account . “Even if, in the worst case scenario, they would really want to enter Ukraine, then Belarus will not fundamentally change the balance of power,” the expert added.
Possibly whether a new attack on the Sumy region
The Russians also began to pull their military to the border with the Sumy region . However, experts believe that this is more of a provocation, and the Russians do not plan to attack there.
According to Venislavsky, the likelihood that active hostilities will take place in the Seversky district in terms of offensive is low.
Since the forces that Russia is concentrating on the borders of the Sumy region are not yet enough to once again go on the offensive there and open a “second front.” These are just means of diverting our defense forces, which are concentrated along the entire perimeter of the border,” the deputy explained.
those areas that need more defense, in particular, the Donbass.
Why the possible offensive from Belarus is being discussed again
- Lukashenka again began to say that he sees “threats” due to the war in Ukraine.
- On May 26, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar commented on their military exercises and said that the threat from the territory of Belarus remains.
- Russian publicist Andrei Piontkovsky explained that Lukashenka, on pain of execution, refuses to send troops to Ukraine. He does this not because he is allegedly a “friend of the Ukrainian people”, but through the understanding that the army can immediately throw him off.
- On May 27, the General Staff reported that Belarus had deployed an electronic warfare maneuver group on the border with Ukraine. It is currently based in the Gomel region.
- However, the Belarusian military is not too eager to fight on the side of Russia, as they do not really need it. This is evidenced by our intelligence data. Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, also spoke about this situation. He said that Ukraine controls the situation on the border with Belarus.
