Ukrainian forces can achieve an operationally significant breakthrough on the southern front, provided several key assumptions are met.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
A significant success for the Defense Forces will be more likely if:
Now looking
- Russian troops will not have the necessary reserves or combat power to hold the defense in the west of the Zaporozhye region;
- Ukrainian troops will retain sufficient combat power, to continue the offensive after the combat power of the Russian troops is depleted;
- Russian defensive positions behind the current combat area are not as heavily mined or as well prepared as the fortifications that Ukrainian troops breached.
This hypothesis is stated to be false if any of these assumptions is not true, but “there are indications that these assumptions remain valid at the time of writing this report”.
Analysts believe that the Russian military does not have sufficient forces deployed in the western part of Zaporozhye area to fully man the defense in depth.
Ukraine's operations in Bakhmut keep Russian troops in eastern Ukraine and distract them from the southern front, and also help make the creation of a strategic reserve impossible.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov, said on September 22 that the Russian military had deployed its &# 8220;reserve army” (25th Combined Arms Army) approximately north of Bakhmut to defend against Ukrainian counter-offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine.
— It remains unclear whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces have enough reserve forces and combat power to continue to conduct offensive operations in the south until Russian defenses are broken through to effectively exploit the operational breakthrough, — the report says.
It also remains unclear to what extent Russian positions south of the current combat area are mined and well prepared.
The Institute indicates that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is in extremely dynamic phase, and experts are not yet ready to provide a confident forecast of developments, despite recent positive indicators.
— Observers should remain patient with the Ukrainian campaign plan and expect the Ukrainian counteroffensive to continue into the winter of 2023 and into the spring of 2024. Ukraine does not need to make a sudden and dramatic deep advance to achieve success, — added to ISW.
Earlier, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that the Russian Federation was concentrating new units in Bakhmut and its environs.
