The New York Times analyzed why Russian dictator Vladimir Putin decided to change the commander of the war in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin against Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.
According to the publication, Gerasimov convinced Putin that his predecessor was too passive.
Has anything changed after personnel decisions
NYT journalists note that General Gerasimov's heightened strategy is what has led to Russia's problems, and Moscow still does not have the troops, ammunition or equipment that the military says it needs for a massive offensive.
Since Gerasimov took over from Surovikin, who had only been in office for three months, Russian military leaders have focused on tactical issues such as whether troops should travel in civilian vehicles and the dangers of their use of mobile phones, Western officials say.
< p>But while these issues certainly worry military personnel, there is no evidence that the Russian army has begun to address its fundamental problems, such as lack of ammunition and well-trained troops.
Russia failed to achieve any of its goals
Washington notes that the number of Russian generals who were dismissed or demoted during the 11 months of the war, constantly increasing – now it is nine people.
Analysts note that Russian forces have failed to achieve their goals: capture the capital Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky is still in power, Ukraine has closer ties to the West than ever, and despite signs of some “cracks”, NATO remains unified.
Even Russia's more limited goal of capturing the entire eastern region of Donbass remains elusive, the material notes.
Why did Putin turn to Gerasimov
To sort out this mess, Putin turned to none other than General Gerasimov.
For ten years, General Gerasimov was believed to have worked to modernize the Russian armed forces as Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces. He studied the accidents of Americans in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, the former Yugoslavia and Libya and sought to incorporate this knowledge into the plans.
67-year-old General Gerasimov has the contradictions characteristic of high-ranking Russian leaders. Early last year, he told Western officials that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine. A few weeks later, Russian troops crossed the border.
Gerasimov is expected to launch a successful offensive in the spring
The interlocutors told the publication that Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ” attacked” the position of the successful Surovikin in defense and offered to return to the “hyper offensive” with the potential initial goal of taking Kramatorsk.
This proposal coincided with the position of Putin, who still insists that Russia will capture the Donbass and even Kyiv.
Therefore, expectations are growing in the West that “General Gerasimov will be under enormous pressure to carry out a successful offensive this spring.” This is what US military officials and analysts say.
For reference. On January 11, Sergei Surovikin was removed from his post as commander of the joint group of forces in Ukraine. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, has been appointed to this post.
