Publication author
Irina Uzlova
The processes of disintegration of Russia have already been launched. What will be the catalyst for the destruction of the empire and why it will not lead to the apocalypse, read in the exclusive blog for the Channel 24 website.
Putin spoke about the collapse of Russia
Empires fell – life went on: new states grew and grew stronger, the security architecture changed and consolidated.
If someone yearned for the same USSR, then they cried at home into a pillow or reveled in nostalgia on a bench under the porch. There were no mass protests, no tectonic landslides of the universe. Although the fears of the collapse of such large, hardened federal formations remained and were even put out of fear on the field of public discussion. The world was worried, making plans, but finally adapting and moving forward.
The path of Russia in the format in which it exists now, and with the power that stands (or staggers) at the head of the federation, is only one – back. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin spoke about the collapse of Russia. For the first time during his reign. I have traditionally associated this with the new goal and desire of the evil West. The President of Russia explained: “It is the Western leaders who allegedly want to 'roll out' the former Soviet Union and its main part – Russia.”
Such rhetoric of pinning all sins on the leaders of the Western world is obviously due to an attempt to act ahead of the curve.
The purpose of Putin’s statements is to convey to his electorate such a message that in the future will allow him to justify his crimes: they say, look, I warned, they wanted to destroy us, Russia was threatened, we stand to protect our security.
It constantly seems to Putin that someone is attacking Russia, although in reality everything happens exactly the opposite.
“If we follow this path, I think that the fate of very many peoples of Russia, and above all, of course, the Russian people, can change dramatically, well, just radically. I don't even know if such an ethnic group as the Russian people can survive in in the form in which it is today. Well, there will be some Muscovites, Urals and so on. It was all in the plans, these plans are set out on paper, “Putin commented on the risks of the collapse of Russia in an interview with propaganda political observer Pavel Zarubin for program “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin”.
But there is a nuance: Putin's words are very different from actions. From the lips of a dictator who is ready to pay for his imperial ambitions and the conquest of lands with the blood of Russians an exorbitant, tax-free price until the last of the inhabitants of the “great and mighty” is completed, at least strange and rather wild sound reflections on the future of the people – at least some.
The aggressor again took out his last trump card
The people for the Russian president are nothing more than biomass, a means to implement plans, if you like, a last chance. It is unlikely that Putin is interested not only in the future of the “deep” people, but also in the present. One of the many proofs of this is simple and eloquent – almost 150,000 Russians who perished on the Ukrainian battlefield and resistance.
But Putin publicly defends his people and sees no “red lines” for himself in this. He did not forget to remember once again that he, of course, would be forced to respond to such challenges from the West and took out of his pocket his last trump card, already a little battered by empty talk – nuclear weapons.
The Kremlin dictator went back to his old ways: Russia “should take into account the nuclear potential not only of the United States, but also of all other NATO countries,” without specifying what this means. Talk about a threat to Russia's security and nuclear saber-rattling is nothing more than another manipulation of the Kremlin authorities. She seeks to cover up the failures on the Ukrainian front and the desire to divert attention from the hundreds of funerals that march daily through the regions of Russia, which are still heaps.
The West is afraid that Russia will fall apart into many pieces
“Not the West, but Putin himself is really deliberately leading Russia to collapse,” Russian opposition journalist Igor Yakovenko is convinced. He summarizes that when the USSR collapsed, it was the West that tried to do everything to prevent this from happening. The publicist explains: “Therefore, even now the Western world is really afraid that such a monster as Russia will fall apart – criminal, uncontrolled, nuclear-equipped.”
The reasons for this are not at all humanistic, but exclusively rational. In fact, it is easier for the West to deal with one adversary, even one as nasty as Russia. Why? Elementary – it's simply safer than facing the uncertainty of tomorrow and the unpredictability of the Russian regime on a vast territory stuffed with a variety of weapons, including nuclear ones.
“The West does not dream of destroying Russia, although such a possibility exists. However, the author of the final stage in the history of the Russian empire is Putin. With all his steps, he is bringing this end closer. Before February 24, 2022, nothing threatened Putin, because after his illegal annexation of Crimea, the world reacted rather sluggishly: the sanctions were insufficient and cosmetic, the statements were not too loud. That's when Putin decided that the world would eat everything in silence. Yes, then it was a weakness, but Putin miscalculated and did not calculate the limit of this weakness and the West's response,” Igor analyzes Yakovenko.
Timur Olevsky, Russian opposition journalist, editor of The Insider Russia, does not consider the imminent collapse of Russia realistic. The reason is not so much political as geographical.
He explains that, for example, Tatarstan is an enclave surrounded by several ethnic territories, so disputes and problems with neighbors can arise. Some regions cannot acquire subjectivity simply because, in fact, they represent a void, where nothing has been, has not been built, or developed for years.
Timur Olevsky analyzes: “The Urals can become an independent part of a confederation, but it can also enter into difficult relations with neighboring entities. Political will, a political project that will turn Russia into 20 separate countries that will be guided by someone and somehow not so much a matter of desires, as an objective reality, which primarily depends on geographical features.”
Who accelerates the collapse of Russia
Political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman sees the collapse of Russia as not only possible, but simply inevitable. Explains: the collapse of Russia is really beneficial to everyone, Europe in particular. However, he adds that it is not necessary to wait for this at lightning speed.
“Today, it is Putin who is accelerating this process, but I do not promise anyone that it will be fast. Because if there is no longer Putin, the process may slow down. Therefore, this may continue for years, but we would like it to be faster. We do not control this and “we cannot influence the internal processes there either by military or diplomatic means. The West can push, but this situation must ripen itself inside Russia, like an apple falling from the tree itself. We must wait. Obviously, this will happen after Putin, when Putin loses power, and Russia will fall apart at once. And this may well be,” Mikhail Sheitelman reflects.
Without thinking for a long time or without thinking at all, his henchman and part-time deputy of the National Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, in fact, simultaneously picked up the theses of the head of the Kremlin. He is convinced that the collapse of Russia will lead to the apocalypse.
Medvedev again waves a nuclear baton at Europe and the whole world: “If the question of the existence of Russia itself is seriously raised, it will not be decided on the Ukrainian front. But along with the question of the continued existence of the entire human civilization. There should be no ambiguity here. we don't need it. Our enemies are doing just that, not wanting to understand that their goals deliberately lead to a total fiasco. Loss for everyone. Collapse. Apocalypse. When you have to forget about your past life forever, until the smoky blockages cease to come out with radiation, “- threatens Medvedev in his article for Izvestia.
“Without hesitation and without compromise, the world without Putin would be a better place,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during a visit to Kyiv in early February. So it would be better if Medvedev asked the question: does the world need Russia? However, the final answer to this question is being sought, and more precisely, the Western leaders articulate the question for themselves in the following way: in what form can one at least get along with Russia, at least coexist in parallel?
The fact that the world is experiencing fear and lack of understanding of what to do with Russia without Putin is also, unfortunately, there and leaves room for reflection. “I don’t think, as some people think, that Russia should be completely defeated, attacked on its own soil. These observers want, first of all, to crush Russia. This has never been the position of France and will never be,” the head of France commented on the future of Russia Emmanuel Macron.
“If Russia collapses, then we may have more problems, we have no one to negotiate disarmament with,” Czech President Petr Pavel struck with his rhetoric, commenting on the scenarios of Russia's loss. However, experts advise to separate the concepts of the elimination of the Putin regime and the destruction of Russia, as well as to take into account the need for controllability of the process of deformation of Russia.
The Western world is unambiguously determined to ensure that Putin's terrorist regime ends its existence. The destruction of Putin and his regime is absolutely justified. However, it is necessary to separate the Putin regime from Russia itself. The West is leaning towards the need for a controlled disintegration, a deliberate denuclearization of Russia, which should take place after the elimination of Putin. The transitional period between these stages should be controlled by an international coalition led by the EU, the US and China in order to maintain a balance of interests,” political scientist, candidate of political sciences Alexei Buryachenko is sure.
In fact, the course of events on the battlefield in Ukraine will become one of the determining factors in the vision of the world regarding the place and format of the functioning of Russia and the development of a new architecture of world security. All that is needed is a concept, the first step of which is the elimination of the Putin regime as a phenomenon, after which the second step arises – the political fate and future construct of Russia and the creation of new security structures.
