The Cold War is the period from 1946 to the end of the 1980s, during which there was a global confrontation between two superpowers – the USSR and the USA. What are the causes of the Cold War in the past, is it possible to repeat it in the future and what are the possible consequences for Ukraine? Associate Professor, Candidate of Political Sciences Mikhail Shabanov told Facts ICTV.
What is the Cold War
Mikhail Shabanov explained that the Cold War is a kind of response to the realities of geopolitical polarization of the world after 1945.
– In the 20th century, the formation of such an international system was “filled” with a worldview and ideological confrontation between the superpowers. The determining lever of influence on the scale of the confrontation between the USA and the USSR, the military-political bloc of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, first of all, was nuclear weapons, as well as the struggle for the incorporation [inclusion] of political regimes in different parts of the world into their own system of values, military-political presence, economic ties,” explained the political scientist.
According to Shabanov, the Cold War – from George Kennan's Long Telegram and Winston Churchill's Fulton Speech to the Cuban Missile Crisis – is a demonstration of the fragility of any restraining mechanisms during a global conflict.
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It should be noted that the Long Telegram and the Fulton Speech are considered the starting points of the Cold War.
The “Long Telegram” was sent to Washington on February 22, 1946 from the US Embassy in Moscow by the future “architect of the Cold War” and the ideological father of the policy of containment, American diplomat George F. Kennan, in which he wrote about the impossibility of cooperation with the USSR.
The Fulton speech, delivered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill on March 5, 1946 in the United States, was considered in the USSR to be a signal for the start of the Cold War.
– At the same time, the Cold War is a period of large-scale subjectivity of the White House leaders. Such an international confrontation is essentially a war of narratives, that is, each side is potentially able to put forward a certain ideological framework for a model of how the world works,” said Shabanov.
As the political scientist explained, the totalitarian USSR tried to promote a utopian picture of communist existence and false mythologies. It is believed that the United States won the Cold War by promoting the most effective liberal model in a globalized world. The end of the Cold War is conventionally considered the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Signs of the Cold War
Mikhail Shabanov noted that the Cold War has several distinctive features:
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- worldview and ideological struggle between countries – the extremely different poles of ideology are very clearly outlined;
- military-political bloc confrontation;
- the growth of regional conflicts around the source of confrontation.
A repeat of the Cold War: is it possible?
– The prerequisites for a new Cold War have actually already taken shape. In this case, a logical question arises: who are the parties to the confrontation, what is the nature of this confrontation, what changes are potentially possible. A confrontation of a global nature is emerging between the United States and China,” the political scientist noted.
According to the expert, this confrontation is polarizing the world, but it is not only a situation of military-political demarcation that is emerging. There is also an economic dimension to the relationship at the global and regional level (China exerts economic influence in the Global South).
This emerging economic order of things is more difficult to reshape and recreate new conditions. A paradigm of the influence of “soft power” from the poles of opposition also arises, that is, purely cultural integrators are no less effective in the global world of choosing narratives.
– The New Cold War, which has been talked about since 2010, is now prominent. In the context of modern events, this term can characterize the state of relations between the democratic regimes of the West and Russia,” said Shabanov.
According to the political scientist, in recent years the Russian Federation has almost completely fallen into the geopolitical dependence of China, as a major player on the new world chessboard. This dependence is economic in nature and is based primarily on technological and financial dependence.
“That is, modern Russia is simply not able to act as a full-fledged pole of confrontation with the Western world,” says Mikhail Shabanov.
Will a cold war begin between Ukraine and Russia: what does the expert say?
Mikhail Shabanov explained that Ukraine is gradually building its vector of “Euro-Atlanticism,” integrating into a single European space and taking a subjective part in the creation of effective “geopolitical triangles,” for example, the London-Warsaw-Kiev triangle.
– A Cold War between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is possible as one of the scenarios after the end of open bloody confrontation with the aggressor. In fact, a war of a hybrid order (as a segment of the Cold War) against Ukraine has been actively waged since 2014, as a response of the Putin regime to revolutionary changes in our country and the European integration course, the political scientist believes.
According to him, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 radically changed the emphasis, and all the strategic plans of the Russian leadership became obvious and mostly failed. At the current stage, when the war with Russia is acquiring a positional character, it is difficult to give a clear forecast about the timing of its completion or systemic changes in nature.
– “The Long War” is already changing the worldview of not only the Ukrainian people and the political elite, but also representatives of the Western political establishment. Financial and military assistance to Ukraine determines the strategy of geopolitical support and the understanding that this war is a large-scale civilizational clash,” Mikhail Shabanov emphasized.
In his opinion, a very significant point is the “friendly contacts” of the Russian nomenklatura with the leadership of Iran and the DPRK and the supply of weapons to the war in Ukraine by these states.
“In fact, a new “axis of evil” is being built from totalitarian political regimes, isolated by sanctions, but continuing strategic rapprochement with each other,” says the political scientist.
In his opinion, a cold war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is possible only with a partial freezing of the military conflict. Subject to a change in the political regime in the aggressor state and a “reset” of the elite nomenklatura elite, but while maintaining the general structure of power, the war will likely continue as an active confrontation.
According to the political scientist, a regional cold war cannot be beneficial to Ukraine, because it is a state of permanent conflict, the expression of which is:
- arms race;
- nuclear blackmail by the Russian regime;
- provocations and manifestations of “proxy war”;
- information campaigns of Russian propaganda.
According to Mikhail Shabanov, the ways to extinguish such a scenario are:
- weapons buildup;
- active cooperation with international institutions;
- opening of new military production facilities in Ukraine.
“That is, our steps should be aimed at increasing the interest of Western partners in the unshakable defensive position of our state; the structural “dismantling” of the existing political regime in Russia, its ideological “defashization” is also logical and necessary,” the political scientist concluded.
