From February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian sky is completely closed to civil aircraft. During this time, the idea of partially resuming flights, despite martial law, has already been voiced several times.
When and under what conditions will civil aircraft be able to resume flights in the sky over Ukraine, will there be a demand for tickets and will their cost increase? further in the material.
From Uzhgorod to Lviv: what suggestions were made
Even last summer, on the sixth month of the war, the idea came up to launch a passenger service through Uzhgorod International Airport(Transcarpathian region). Its peculiarity is that planes must take off and land through the airspace of Slovakia.
The Transcarpathian Regional Council expressed the opinion that “in a month or two our aircraft will fly”.< /p>
This topic has resurfaced in the media space after the recent statement by the director of the Ukrainian airline Air Ocean Airlines about his readiness to resume flights from Uzhgorod,“if it is deemed safe”. In a media commentary, the director of the air carrier, Vyacheslav Geriga, said that the airfield is located close to the border with Slovakia, so the plane after takeoff will immediately enter the airspace of a NATO member country.
The Transcarpathian OVA reacted to the statement, emphasizing that the opening of Uzhgorod airport before the end of the war is out of the question, since the safety of people is above business interests.
In addition to Uzhgorod, there were also discussions about Lviv airport. Back in September 2022, Infrastructure Minister Alexander Kubrakov suggested that he could be the first to resume work if there were security guarantees (similar to the “grain corridor”).
– We consider Lviv airport as the first airport. I hope that, as was the case with the Black Sea Grain Initiative, when we receive guaranteed security, guarantees, first of all, from international partners, from the UN, we will begin, — Kubrakov said at the 17th annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES).
He added that it would technically take up to two weeks to reopen airports in Ukraine, but in practice this can be done “only with a guaranteed ”.
Lviv airport. Photo: UNIAN
In May of this year, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba spoke about Lviv. He expressed the opinion that if the F-16 fighters were already “ patrolling the Ukrainian sky, then at least the Lviv airport could be safely opened and not worry about anything at all”. According to the minister, we are talking about safety, and whether airlines will fly.
And in June the head of the Lviv OVA Maxim Kozitskysuggested that Lviv International Airport could resume operations as a humanitarian corridor “provided by the European Union”.
First flights before the end of the year: Ryanair plans
Last month, a delegation of the Irish low-cost airline Ryanair arrived in Kiev. This is the first international airline whose leaders have visited Ukraine since February 24, 2022.
Representatives of Ryanair examined the state of Boryspil International Airport and presented a plan for the resumption of air travel in Ukraine. One option is to launch flights by the end of 2023, despite the war.
The details of the plan were revealed in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine by Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary.
“We are considering two plans: one when the war ends and everything opens up in one or two days. And the second, most likely, according to which we can plan a small number of flights at the end of this year, — stressed O’Leary, referring to the experience of Israel, where, despite periodic rocket attacks, civil aviation works.
He added that we are talking about “a limited number of flights in Kiev and Lvov”. O'Leary noted that the capital of Ukraine “seems safe enough and fairly well protected”.
But first, he said, the Ukrainian authorities must convince the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and insurance companies that it is safe to fly, “that they can protect flights to Kiev and Lvov”.
Aircraft at Boryspil airport. Photo: UNIAN
It is EASA that must recognize the airspace as safe, give permission for flight corridors for specific routes. The decision of the agency will also affect the position of insurance companies.
Michael O’Leary claimed that the Ministry of Reconstruction of Ukraine is working to “to resume some flights to Kiev and Lviv” at the end of this year” ;. He stated that Ukraine is working “with experts from Israel and their experience”.
In general, in Ryanair's plans for the future:
- Within six weeks after the opening of the Ukrainian skies – to launch flights from Kiev to 20-25 European cities, from Lviv – to about 10 cities, from Odessa – to 5 cities.
- The main cities where the company plans to start , – Warsaw, Krakow, Berlin, Frankfurt, Milan, Rome, London, Brussels, Amsterdam and Paris.
- To provide 5 million passengers in the first year after the opening of the sky. They want to increase this number to 10 million passengers within five years.
- During the first year, out of 5 million passenger seats, about 20% will be sold for less than €20(at rates €10-14-19). But at the same time, the company expects Ukraine to lower airport taxes.
According to O’Leary, the only way to fill in the beginning of the place is “very low airfare” ;.
– Airplanes land every day in Tel Aviv, which is only 10 minutes away from the West Bank, where the rockets are launched from… So I see no reason why we cannot return flights (to Ukraine, —Edit.) The only question is whether we will return with a small number of flights or we are talking about a large-scale opening of the sky. That is, are we moving on to fulfilling the big plan, namely 5 million passengers in the first year. However, this requires a ceasefire, or victory, or the end of the war, — said O’Leary.
This statement created a real sensation in the Ukrainian media space. The news quickly spread online.
However, the Ukrainian authorities are more restrained in their assessments.
What they say in Ukrainian government agencies
Commenting on the visit of Ryanair management, Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery Alexander Kubrakov refrained from loud statements. He only noted that “the resumption of flights will be possible as soon as the security situation allows”, and did not voice any timeframe.
The ministry clarified that Ryanair's investment plan provides for the return of the low-cost airline to Ukraine “at low tariffs within 8 weeks after the restoration of airspace”, which will allow 600 flights weekly. In addition, Ryanair would like to launch daily domestic flights between Kiev, Lviv and Odessa.
Photo: Minovosstanovleniya
Even before Ryanair's statements, the state enterprise UkSATSE emphasized that the airspace “will be openedimmediately after the end of hostilities and the victory of Ukraine“.
Thus, the agency reacted to the Eurocontrol forecast on the likelihood of resuming civil flights in Ukraine only from the end of 2029. UkSATSE explained that the forecast is based on current circumstances, and as soon as the war ends, it will be updated.
Deputy Director of UkSATSE Oksana Ozhigova stated that so far there will be no 100 % security, civil aviation will not work.
It should be noted that the European Aviation Safety Agency has clearly defined Ukraine as a “zone of active conflict”, where airspace is closed and flights are banned.
The EASA Bulletin, published on February 24, 2022, mentions “risks to the safety of civil aircraft” as a result of “both intentional targeting and misidentification”.
EASA may revise recommendations if security situation in Ukrainian skies changes.
Position of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Ryanair statement was commented by Speaker of the Command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat. According to him, it is unlikely that soon it will be possible to open airspace for civil aircraft.
– It is difficult to understand how it is possible to fly at all in a state of war. We had a grain corridor, from which the Russian Federation withdrew alone. They (airlines, — Ed.) that they will negotiate with Russia so that it does not fire on humanitarian air corridors? head of the rocket, – Yuri Ignat listed the problematic issues on the air of the telethon.
He clarified that in Ukraine, during martial law, all airfields are operational, and enemy missiles and drones reach anywhere in Ukraine.
Regarding the possibility of launching civil flights from Uzhgorod, where the runway is located on Ukrainian territory, but the plane actually rises into the air over Slovakia, Ignat explained that the enemy could hit the aircraft parking area, “saying that Western equipment is concentrated there”.
According to the speaker, we cannot take the example of Israel as a basis, since it is a small country in terms of territory, and it can fully protect its airspace. Ukraine, on the other hand, is a large state, and Russian missiles fly from everywhere.
In the same vein, Yuriy Ignat previously commented on the possibility of opening an airport in Lviv during the war. He noted that when the Russian Federation realizes that there is a functioning airfield in Ukraine, then “will see it as a potential target”.
The speaker added that Ukraine does not yet have enough air defense systems such as Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, which can protect against enemy missiles, in particular against ballistics.
Is it possible to open the sky during the war: expert opinions
Regarding the timing of the resumption of civil flights, ICTV Facts talked with aviation experts Kirill Novikov and Bogdan Dolinets.
They explained that first of all, there must be appropriate security conditions.
– If the security authorities say that during the hostilities, the active phase of the war, this is impossible, it is obvious that this is so. Is the partial opening that many talk about possible? In my opinion, this is also not true. We all see that a missile can fly to any point in Ukraine at any moment. If Ukraine and our European partners are able to comprehensively provide security guarantees in the sky, then, perhaps, over time, this opening will take place at individual airports, — emphasized Kirill Novikov.
However, these are all just plans, as long as the aggressor has military potential and is able to fire missiles on the entire territory of Ukraine.
Bohdan Dolyntse< /strong>noted that today there are no factors indicating the possibility of lifting restrictions on civil aviation flights. Therefore, flights, most likely, will not be launched either until the end of the war, “or until the formation of some new external conditions”.
– If it is some kind of format, such as, for example, with the grain agreement, then other legal mechanisms may be opened to achieve the level of flight safety to at least partially open the airspace. To date, there are no signals that it may be opened in the near future, — said the aviation expert.
How soon after the end of the war can flights resume
As Kirill Novikov explained, some Ukrainian airports are ready to resume flights today. We are talking about those airports whose infrastructure was not damaged during the war.
However, many processes need to be resumed to launch flights. EASA must control the implementation of all the standards that Ukrainian airports must meet. After all, Ukraine is part of European airspace in terms of flight safety.
– It's all for a long time. I think that for those airports that were not damaged, it will take several months, up to six months. And those that were damaged or destroyed will depend on the speed of their recovery. In the case, for example, with Kherson, where it is necessary to completely rebuild the airport complex, partially rebuild the airfield, this will take, I think, more than one year, Novikov said.
The expert does not rule out that civil flights can be resumed gradually, starting from individual airports.
Bogdan Dolintse also believes that government agencies responsible for aviation will need some time to carry out work at airports.
At the same time, both UkSATSE and some airports, such as Boryspil, declared their readiness to resume flights as soon as possible. They have the required number of trained personnel who are periodically trained.
The air expert also does not exclude that after the lifting of the ban “in fact, on the same day, some first flights will be launched”.
– And most likely it will even be one of the Ukrainian airlines, which will perform the first post-war flight, – said Dolince.
As for the first routes, according to the expert, it is now difficult to predict. Bohdan Dolince considers it highly likely that one of the first flightsor the first “will be not so much commercial as political” – to one of the partner countries, such as Poland, USA or another.
Photo: Depositphotos
Dmitry Seroukhov, CEO of the Ukrainian airline SkyUpin an interview with Economic Truth, he predicted that it would take several months to fully launch civil air transportation in pre-war volumes.
– Weeks – for a full resumption of activity, but one or two days – to be able to start producing or receiving flights & # 8230; It will take several months for carriers and traffic to return, logistics to airports to resume, leases to resume, — said Seroukhov.
He also reminded of the need for insurance coverage of transportation, because without it “you have no right to fly”.
Will ticket prices go up
Aviation experts interviewed by ICTV Facts believe that ticket prices should go up .
As Kirill Novikov said, this is a pan-European trend. The rise in ticket prices is due to the slow resumption of the aviation industry after the coronavirus pandemic, the loss of a certain part of the staff, fluctuations in aviation fuel prices, and strikes (for example, air traffic controllers).
– There are certain factors that have contributed to the rise in prices over the past few years, and today they are kept at a consistently high level even in the field of low-cost airlines. And when hostilities end in Ukraine, we win and resume flights within the country and to Europe, we will see that the general trend will be that tickets in general will not be as cheap as before the end of 2021, — noted Novikov.
Agree with this and Bogdan Dolintse. According to the expert, the cost of air transportation in the first period is likely to be slightly higher than before the start of a full-scale war. First of all, because Ukrainian companies have not yet fully recovered from the pandemic. In addition, airport tax rates may be revised: their structure may include the costs of restoring infrastructure damaged by the Russian Federation.
– All these costs can be included in future airport tax rates, and, as a result, in the cost of the air tickets themselves. But within six months, most likely, the issue of prices will be regulated, and prices will be set plus or minus at the pre-war level, — considers Dolince.
Will there be demand for flights
It all depends on the format in which civil air traffic will be restored, Bogdan Dolince is convinced. If this is a hypothetical launch of flights in a limited format – until the end of the war, then “demand is likely to be relatively low”. Some citizens will assess the risks and choose to fly from airports outside of Ukraine.
– And if we talk about opening after the end of the war, then demand will most likely be even greater than it was before the war
strong>, — stressed the aviation expert.
Bogdan Dolintse explained that there are a number of factors here:
- The so-called effect of deferred demand will work. That is, people who wanted to fly, but could not afford it due to the war, did not have the opportunity to leave Ukraine (for example, men liable for military service), will want to use flights.
- A large number of Ukrainians were forced to go abroad because of war. Some of them may not return because they have settled their lives in a new place. Such people will create future demand for flights. After all, they will visit relatives and friends in Ukraine, and they, in turn, will fly to them.
– First of all, we are talking about the three countries where the most Ukrainians are: Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany. And my personal opinion is that these three countries after the end of the war will become a driver for the development of air transportation in Ukraine. And not just for a few years, for dozens… This will create a fairly powerful request for future transportation, which, for example, did not exist before the war, — said Bogdan Dolintsa.
Kirill Novikov also believes that the demand for tickets will be high, because “people are hungry for flights”.
At the same time, the aviation expert predicts the development of cargo aviation in Ukraine after the war. According to Novikov, civil aviation is still more focused on the social component – the transportation of people. And cargo – generates economic benefits.
Kirill Novikov is sure that after the end of the war in Ukraine, both unmanned transportation and cargo will develop more, and there will be separate cargo airports”. That is, the aviation industry will take on a different look than it was before the full-scale war.
