Almost a year after the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Munich Security Conference was held. This time the goal was not only to sum up the results of the year and carefully determine the near future. “Munich” confirmed the decisiveness of the West in ensuring the victory of Ukraine. A cardinal turning point also occurred in the East, because China realized that the war in Ukraine is not only a European problem.
China for the first time called the war in Ukraine a war and offered its own vision of a “just world”. At the same time, the Americans warned Beijing against any attempts to provide military support to Russia, because the war is entering a decisive phase.Channel 24traditionally analyzed what authoritative Western media write about Ukraine.
How the West reacted to China's “peace plan”
Western leaders reacted nervously to the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine, which is due to be made public this week, writes The Guardian. However, they also cautiously welcomed the statements of China's top diplomat Wang Yi as the first sign that China is recognizing that the war in Ukraine cannot be considered a purely European affair.
Wang Yi's speech at the Munich Security Conference 2023/Photo by AP
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, high-ranking Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, one of the few foreign policymakers capable of influencing Russia, announced that:
- China will launch its peace initiative on the anniversary of the war and is already consulting with Germany, Italy and France on its proposals.
- Wang Yi stressed thatthe Chinese peace plan will emphasize the need to uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and the UN Charter, but at the same time, it will take into account “Russia's legitimate interests in the field of security.”
However, it is not yet clear how realistic this plan will really be, and whether China is trying to expose the West once again a malicious warmonger, which could find a positive response in the global South and increase the disposition of regional states towards China.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock nevertheless welcomed this move by China, saying that“as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China is obliged to use its influence to ensure world peace”. She stressed that she had a very fruitful conversation with Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Conference and informed him that a just world is not when you reward the aggressor, but on the contrary, when you defend international law and those who were attacked. After all, French and Italian diplomats delivered similar messages to China.
Pay attention!Burbock emphasized that a just peace provides “that the violator of territorial integrity, namely Russia, will withdraw its troops from the occupied territories”, because it is on this that the fundamental principles of international law on sovereignty are based. At the same time, it is not yet clear what “seize every chance for peace” that China offers means.
Without the complete withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, there is no chance of ending the war. Even if it is hard, but all the demands to end the war through territorial concessions to Russia are unacceptable. This means that we are making people the prey of Russia. We will not do this,” Annalena Burbock said.
China knows that there is a ready audience in the South of the planet that positively perceives what it calls for dialogue and peace. For example,Brazil's Foreign Minister statedthat his country condemned Russia's aggression, including at the UN, but added that“the world should try to make any solutions possible”, and not just talk about war. He stressed that we are not talking about immediate negotiations, but we should move in this direction.
Pay attention!Some Western states are pondering whether to push for a new UN General Assembly resolution that would support Ukraine. Such a vote could highlight the lack of international support for Russia. Last year, 141 countries supported Ukraine, and now it is not yet clear how many “newcomers” are in the global South. At the Munich Conference, a number of European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, acknowledged that the West must do more to convince the South that its strong support for Ukraine is not a result of double standards. Macron called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a “neo-colonialist and imperialist” attack that “breaks every taboo” and warned that bystanders were complicit in Russian aggression.
At the same time, as reported by The Guardian, U.S. concerns about Russian support are growing from the side of China. The US Secretary of State met with Chinese diplomat Wang Yi and warned him of “serious problems” in relations between the two countries if Beijing were to supply weapons to Vladimir Putin. Blinken also urged China to stop helping Russia avoid the impact of sanctions.
Anthony Blinken at the Mnuchen Security Conference 2023/Photo by Getty
Blinken told American TV channels that the US has information thatChina is considering helping Russia, possibly including weapons, to wage war in Ukraine.The US also believes thatChina is likely already provides some Wagner PVK intelligence.
The concern we have now is based on the information we have that China is considering providing lethal support. We made it very clear to them that this could be a serious problem for us and our relationship,” Blinken told CBS.
The US warning about Beijing's intentions came in the context of a Chinese proposal to unveil a peace plan for Ukraine. Wang Yi spoke about his intentions to the leaders of France, Germany and Italy. Perhaps in this wayChina is trying to drive a wedge between the EU and the US. The US noted that China's plan is likely to be a vague statement about the values of peace dialogue, territorial integrity and sovereignty, without going into detail. At the same time, in his speech, Wang Yi suggested that there is a possibility that Europe is more committed to a settlement than the US.
We should calmly think, especially our friends in Europe, about what efforts should be made to stop the war. What should be the framework for establishing a lasting peace in Europe and what role should Europe play in order to demonstrate its strategic autonomy, Wang Yi said.
European diplomats who have already familiarized themselves with China's proposals were skeptical, placing questioning Beijing's intention to distance itself from its close partner, Russia. In addition,China is perhaps the only external player capable of exerting effective diplomatic pressure on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.to force it to rethink its strategy.
However, there were other points in China's proposed plan that the West might welcome, such ascountering threats of nuclear war or attacking civilian nuclear power plants. References to the UN charter and territorial integrity can also be useful, although they are accompanied by a reference to allegedly “Russia has legitimate security concerns.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed his hope that China's foreign policy principles will force Beijing to accept the Ukrainian position.
We believe that respect for the principle of territorial integrity is China's fundamental international arena. And that the commitment to uphold and protect this principle is greater driving force for China than other arguments put forward by Ukraine, the United States, or any other country,” said Dmitry Kuleba.
The US is actively discussing the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine
A US general told US lawmakers that F-16s and longer-range missiles could help bolster Ukraine's offensive and secure victory over Russia, Politico writes. The senators directly asked US chief general in Europe Christopher Cavoli about whether Western fighters would help Ukraine win, to which he replied in the affirmative.
Pay attention! The F-16 issue was part of a broader discussion about the conduct of the war and what else Kyiv needs to succeed in its plans to launch a counteroffensive and halt Russian offensives across hundreds of kilometers of front lines. Cavoli saidUkraine needs longer-range missilesso that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can strike at Russian positions from a greater distance, endangering headquarters and rear supply lines.This would help disable the Russian military machine inside Ukraine.
The general's response goes further than previous public comments from top US national security officials. They stated that they did not rule out future fighter supplies, but also noted that air defense was an urgent need of our time.Cavoli told US lawmakers at the Munich Security Conference that the Americans and their allies should send Ukraine the most advanced weapons they can part with.This also includes modern aircraft, drones, and missiles with a range of more than 100 kilometers. p>
The general, who is also Supreme Allied Commander Europe and head of US European Command, claims thatUkraine needs more modern weapons and equipment to “strengthen the effective struggle”. These remarks come amid an intensifying debate in the West over whether modern aircraft should be provided to Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long called for fighter jet deliveries and emphasizes that Ukrainian pilots are qualified enough to train in Western-style aircraft and control the skies despite Russian air defenses. However, US President Joe Biden and some European leaders have so far rejected the request, saying that the provision of tanks and artillery is more important for the current phase of the war.
The Biden administration's position has disappointed the hawkish wing of US lawmakers.For example, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham notes that the transfer of the F-16 “is an absolute must.” Graham also assures that the plane dispute will end up with the same fate as the tanks and accuses the White House of not being decisive enough. At the same time, in the US Congress, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has already sent Biden a letter urging the president to immediately send the F-16 to Ukraine.
Senator Mark Kelly, a retired Navy pilot with combat experience, added that the Ukrainians are interested in using combat aircraft to defeat Russian air defense systems from afar. This would allow other aircraft and drones to operate more freely throughout the country, especially in the East and South, where hostilities are concentrated today.
At the same time,the British government promised to teach Ukrainian pilots to fly the latest NATO aircraft, but did not indicate exactly when these exercises would begin and whether London was ready to send its aircraft to Ukraine. And US and British officials continue to insist that the issue is on the agenda.
Important!This weekGeneral Christopher Cavoli spoke with his Ukrainian counterpartabout what other military assistance Ukraine needs. At the same time, the Allies have already begun training Ukrainian troops on the Leopard 2 and other tanks that Germany has approved for shipment to Ukraine. Western experts believe thatany modern Western weapons will have a serious impact on the front, where the Russian military is trying to storm the Ukrainian positions with high losses, advancing only a few tens of meters.
A NATO spokesman on the sidelines of the Munich Conference said that the Russians are trying to attack and it is not yet known how successful they will be in doing so. The Alliance official also emphasized that one should prepare for a long struggle:
This is not a crisis. This is not some small incident that can be sorted out. This is not a skirmish. It's total war.
Biden needs to be determined about weapons for Ukraine
The Wall Street Journal recalled the decision of US President Richard Nixon during a critical moment for Israel in 1973 and called on Joe Biden to follow suit. Decisive action by the president could make the difference between success and disaster in conflicts abroad. Look back 50 years and history will give you an example of the type of American presidential leadership it takes to win.
The 1973 Doomsday War in Israel, like the war in Ukraine, was more than a regional conflict. Israel has been an important strategic partner of the US in the Middle East. Egypt and Syria were closely linked to the Soviet Union. When Egypt and Syria launched a two-pronged attack, Israel was caught off guard and unprepared.
The early successes of the Arab invaders forced Israel to fight for its survival. On the third day of the war, Israel was hanging by a thread. It lost more than 1,000 soldiers and a third of its tanks.The White House then faced a serious dilemma: how to ensure the survival of Israel without fueling a conflict between the superpowers.The current US administration received a similar situation from Russia's war against Ukraine. p>
To avoid the image of a “pathetic, helpless giant” unwilling to use its military power to support allies and strategic partners, the US had to act decisively.Nixon ordered the Department of Defense to quickly recover all of Israel's lost military equipment. The Pentagon did not immediately understand the message. President Nixon asked then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to direct the Pentagon to “speed things up.”Several days passed, and the Pentagon continued to hesitate.Nixon knew that the Soviet Union was shipping 700 tons of military hardware to Egypt and Syria daily and that the US must act.
Upon learning that the US Air Force couldn't decide which cargo planes to use, Nixon told Kissinger, “Damn it, use whatever we have. Tell them to send whatever can fly.”. This presidential order removed the obstacle.
Destroyed Syrian tanks in the Golan Heights in Israel 1973/Photo by Getty
Already seven days after the start of the war, 30 transport aircraft The S-130s were on their way to Israel, and within the next monthmore than 550 US air missions have supplied the Israeli army. The planes flew low over the Israeli coastline, providing tangible evidence of desperately needed American help, as well as badly needed morale.
Pay attention! The Soviet Union responded with a threat to bring in troops, but Nixon did not hesitate.< strong> He put the entire U.S. military on the highest peacetime alert ever, DefCon 3, which effectively meant preparing for military action. The Soviet Union retreated, Israel turned the tide of the war, and the U.S.-led settlement kept Moscow out of the way from the Middle East for the next 40 years.
Retired US Army General Barry McCaffrey notes that if President Biden is serious about the future of sovereign Ukraine and the defeat of Russia's territorial ambitions, it is time to act boldly and decisively.It is not too late for the United States and their Western partners to send “everything that can fly” to Ukraine.
