News

After winning the presidential election Donald Trump's US dollar has begun to strengthen sharply, but its high value could hit the economies of other countries around the world.

The Economist writes about this.

The strengthening of the US dollar: what are the consequences for the economies of the world

The publication notes that although the value of the dollar is still largely determined by internal events in the US, however its fluctuations almost always cause ripples around the world.

Now Watching

— One such swing could be coming soon, as the economic policies promised by US President-elect Donald Trump look set to send the dollar soaring. That spells trouble for growth in the rest of the world, the Economist writes.

The Economist acknowledges that it is unclear exactly which parts of his economic programme Trump will be willing and able to implement, though.

However, the jubilation on US stock markets” gives an idea of ​​what investors are expecting. For example, the S&P 500, an index of large American companies, set records one after another on November 6, 7 and 8.

In parallel with this, traders believe that the coming to power of a new administration will boost U.S. corporate profits through tax cuts and deregulation, while government borrowing will rise..

— The combination of a growing deficit and resurgent inflation, in turn, could force the nation's central bank to keep interest rates higher than it would have without Trump. Those higher rates would make dollar securities more attractive, which would be a tailwind for the greenback, the magazine writes.

This scenario is already partially being realized, The Economist points out. On November 7, the US Federal Reserve, as expected, cut its base interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, lowering the target range to 4.5-4.75%. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell left open the possibility that the Fed would keep rates unchanged at its December meeting, rather than continue to cut them.

It is significant that the US rate-setting committee's statement accompanying its decision no longer spoke of “greater confidence that inflation is steadily moving toward 2%”, as was the case in its previous statement in September. The Economist writes that the prospect of higher US interest rates has driven the dollar up 1.5% against various currencies over the past four weeks.

At the same time, the publication points out that the dollar's rise is often accompanied by a weakening global economic outlook.

— One reason for this is that during economic turmoil, investors tend to sell off risky assets and invest in what they perceive as safe dollars and US Treasuries. While a worsening outlook usually leads to a rise in the dollar, a rise in the dollar often worsens the outlook, — the article says.

The magazine recalls an IMF study published in 2023. According to this study, a 10% rise in the value of the dollar reduces output in emerging economies by 1.9% a year later.

— Rich countries are the least affected, but their output still fell by 0.6%. Relief comes slowly: The harmful effects of a strong dollar typically last for two and a half years for emerging economies and for a year for rich countries, according to the study, — the newspaper writes.

In addition, fluctuations in the value of the dollar affect the global economy through two main channels: trade and finance.

— More than 40% of global trade — much of it outside of America — is conducted in dollars. A stronger dollar raises importers' costs, which reduces demand for goods from abroad and reduces overall trade volumes. So in most Asian and Latin American countries, changes in the value of the dollar matter more than the behavior of local currencies, The Economist writes.

The publication points to a 2020 academic study that found that a 1% rise in the dollar against all currencies predicts a 0.6% decline in trade between the rest of the world, after controlling for other factors. According to the Bank for International Settlements, a group of central banks, a stronger dollar also raises costs for buyers of intermediary goods, creating the risk of disruption to long supply chains, The Economist notes.

No less important than the trade implications of a stronger US currency are the financial implications. Thus, for countries and companies that borrow in dollars but have no sources of dollar revenue, a rising dollar mechanically increases their debt burden and raises interest expenses.

— Higher interest rates in America, coupled with a rising dollar, also make investing in the rest of the world less attractive. Capital tends to flee emerging markets, forcing them to raise interest rates as well, tightening monetary conditions just when their economies could be suffering from a general slowdown in trade, — the publication writes.

It is also becoming clear, The Economist writes, that the cost of borrowing outside the US will increase.

— In the early hours of November 6, as the election results became clear, US Treasury yields rose sharply. Yields on Australian, New Zealand and Japanese government bonds also rose. Some of those hikes were reversed in response to the Fed's rate cut, but the respite may prove temporary. Any recovery in yields would be ill-timed, with many central banks trying to support sluggish domestic growth by cutting rates and easing lending, — the paper writes.

However, The Economist concludes that it remains to be seen how long the stronger dollar can hold out.

— Donald Trump himself has long complained that a strong dollar hurts domestic producers and makes American jobs more expensive. But he will have a hard time getting the central bank to cut rates. And as long as rates remain high, the American currency will remain a safe haven for investors and a burning issue for the rest of the world, — writes the publication.

Recall that earlier Fakty ICTV reported that Donald Trump promised in his election campaign to make changes not only in the economy, but also in other areas of US domestic and foreign policy.

UK Defence Secretary Says Ukraine Inspired His Son to Join Army Diana Kwasniewska

The head of the British Ministry of Defense said that the war in Ukraine affected the life of his son. In particular, he decided to join the British army.

24 Channel writes with reference to The Telegraph that the son of the British Minister of Defense Alex said that he wants to serve, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Minister of Defense told how the war in Ukraine affected his son

British Defense Secretary John Gili said that his son Alex, who is about 30 years old, is now serving as an infantryman in the army reserves. He is guided by the desire to defend the country.

I haven't said this before. But it was Ukraine. So when Putin invaded in February 2022, the next day we were having lunch together and he said to me, “Dad, if I were Ukrainian, I would join the army today.” And soon after that, he came to me and Mum and said, “I want to join the army. I want to be a reservist.” That's what he did, the minister said.

The UK Defence Secretary said that after his son joined the army, he had a better understanding of families with servicemen who could die while serving in conflict zones.

Explosions in Dnipro thundered during an air raid alarm.

This was reported by local Telegram channels.

Explosions in Dnipro on November 10: what is known

It is noted that the first explosions thundered at about 21:26 on November 10.

Now watching

Repeated explosions thundered about a minute later, at 21:27.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that before this, in the direction of A missile is flying from Zaporizhia to Dnipropetrovsk region. Before that, the military warned of a ballistic hazard for regions where an air raid alert was declared.

The military called on residents of Pavlograd and Dnipro to take shelter.

Currently, the city or regional authorities have not commented on the information about the explosions.

Photo illustrative/National Police

Taliban to attend UN climate conference for first time Diana Kwasniewska

The Taliban will take part in the United Nations climate conference. It will be held on November 11 in Azerbaijan.

24 ChannelCiting a diplomatic source, Reuters writes that representatives of the Taliban-controlled National Environment Agency were invited by Azerbaijan. Although there was no comment there.

What is known about the Taliban's participation in the UN conference

Taliban representatives will take part in a major United Nations climate conference that will begin next week, the Afghan Foreign Ministry reported on Sunday.

Although UN member states do not recognize the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan, they will be able to participate in secondary discussions and hold bilateral meetings.

By the way, the Taliban are not recognized because of the strict restrictions they impose against women, for the same reason they cannot take a seat in the UN General Assembly.

Journalists reported that the UN climate change conference COP29 will begin in Azerbaijan on November 11 and will be one of the most important international events in which representatives of the Taliban will participate.

In recent years, the Taliban has participated in UN-organized meetings on Afghanistan in Qatar, and Taliban ministers have attended forums in China and Central Asia.

The head of the national agency, Matiul Haq Khalis, said that the delegation will use the conference to:

• strengthen cooperation with the international community on environmental protection and climate change,
• share Afghanistan's needs for access to existing climate finance mechanisms
• discuss adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes that after Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the American side may soon make proposals on when a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war could begin.

Tusk told journalists this, as quoted by Polske Radio.

Trump may unveil plan for ceasefire in Ukraine

He commented on the recently published plan of the newly elected US President Donald Trump for the Russian-Ukrainian war. Tusk said that this plan is probably currently in the preparation stage. However, President Trump's team may soon publish the details of this plan and declare details, in particular, regarding the timing of the ceasefire, as well as on which borders this suspension of hostilities will be in effect.

Now watching

Also, the Polish Prime Minister believes, Donald Trump's team may decide on security guarantees for Ukraine, which may be published along with the ceasefire plan.

— These will certainly be decisions that will provide for less US interference in Ukrainian affairs, — Tusk believes.

The head of the Polish government added that “decisions on the war in Ukraine cannot be made over the heads of not only Ukrainians, but also ours.”

At the same time, Tusk believes that regardless of the outcome of the election of the new US president, both Poland and European countries will have significantly greater responsibility in security matters over the coming months.

Recall that it recently became known that Polish Prime Minister Tusk plans to hold meetings with world leaders, during which he will discuss NATO cooperation and the Russian-Ukrainian war, in particular, after Donald Trump's victory in the US elections Trump.

In Prague, police raided a popular club due to constant complaints about Ukrainians Anzhelika Baibak

In Prague, police raided the Orion nightclub, which is located in the Zizkov district. Local residents have repeatedly complained about this place, claiming that Ukrainians get into drunken fights there.

During the raid, law enforcement officers detained two foreigners whose identities could not be established, as well as two underage girls who were intoxicated. This was reported by 24 Kanal with reference to the Czech publication Novinky.

Police raid Orion nightclub in Prague

Local Czech media reported that on the night of November 10, Prague police raided the Orion nightclub in Prague's Zizkov district. This place is popular among Ukrainians, and local residents have repeatedly complained about it.

First, law enforcement officers blocked the street from entering and exiting and began checking passengers and drivers of cars. After that, about 30 police officers went inside the club. As it turned out, the vast majority of the club's visitors were young citizens of Ukraine.

The police detained two foreigners who did not have documents with them and whose identities could not be established on the spot. Therefore, they were taken to the Foreigners Police Service, – said Eva Kropacheva, press secretary of the Czech police.

In total, during the raid, the police checked about 100 visitors to the club. The media reported that law enforcement officers detained two foreigners whose identities could not be established, because they did not have documents with them. In addition, two 17-year-old girls were handed over to their parents and the child welfare agency was informed, because the minors were intoxicated.

A local resident told a Czech media outlet that the situation in the Orion club was already “unbearable.” The man claimed that the club's patrons got drunk and then started causing trouble in the street. The young people started drunken fights and also attacked parked cars with baseball bats.

“On weekends, you couldn't leave your car in the parking lot in front of the house, because people often found their cars damaged,” the man said.

It is known that the Orion club in Prague's Zizkov is only open twice a week – on Fridays and Saturdays, from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. According to media reports, the club's official Facebook and Instagram pages publish posts in Ukrainian, and the owner of the club is allegedly a Ukrainian citizen.

It is worth noting that the police have recently increased patrols near the club, since locals have been complaining for about a month. Moreover, locals even wrote a petition to resolve the situation with the Orion club.

In September-October 2024, the Russian army lost 20,000 more soldiers than the US forces in almost 20 years of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This was reported on November 10 by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Record losses of the Russian Federation in September-October 2024: what ISW says

Over the past two months, Russian troops have lost approximately 80,110 soldiers.

Now watching

This figure, ISW analysts note, exceeds by about 20 thousand the almost 20-year losses of US troops during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The losses of equipment in September-October are no less impressive, they add at the Institute for the Study of War.

Thus, the Russians have 197 fewer tanks, 661 armored personnel carriers and 65 artillery systems with a caliber of over 100 mm.

At this price, American experts continue, the Russians were able to capture or recapture 1,517 sq. km of area in Ukraine and the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, which is less than a third of the state of Delaware in the United States.

Such results of the Russian occupiers, ISW continues, are not evidence of significant operational progress, because in September-October, despite the capture of Ugledar and Selidovo, the Russian army mainly advanced through open fields and small settlements.

According to the forecast of American analysts, the Russians may occupy even more territory if the Ukrainian military does not stop the offensive operations of the invaders.

At the same time, experts note, the Russians will not be able to maintain such loss rates indefinitely, especially with such limited results.

Even the forced mobilization that Russian President Vladimir Putin is dragging his feet on, analysts are convinced, will not improve the situation for the occupiers, because the head of the Kremlin is now also trying to resolve the situation with the shortage of personnel in Russian industry.

Recall that the day before, British Defense Minister John Healey in an interview with The Telegraph reported that in October, the Russian army lost a record number of troops – approximately 41,980 (that is, the Russians lost about 1,345 soldiers daily).

In September 2024, the Russian Federation lost about 38,130 soldier (or an average of 1,271 daily).

The full-scale war in Ukraine has been going on for 991 days now.

You can monitor the situation in cities on the interactive map of military operations in Ukraine and on the map of air raids in Ukraine.

1,500 dead and wounded daily: Britain says Russia is experiencing its biggest month of losses Polina Buyanova

More interesting audio newsListen

October 2024 became the bloodiest month for Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. This month, Russian troops have had an average of about 1,500 dead and wounded daily.

This is reported by Channel 24, citing an interview with the Chief of the British Defence Staff, Tony Radakin, for the BBC. It is noted that such losses create a burden on the country.

Russian army suffers record losses

Russia does not disclose the number of its dead in the war of conquest, however, according to Western officials, in October 2024 the occupation army suffered the greatest losses.

Russia has 700 thousand killed or wounded (since the beginning of the invasion, – 24 Channel) – this is an enormous pain and suffering that the Russian nation must bear because of Putin's ambitions, – said Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.

According to him, these are losses for “little pieces lands”.

Without a doubt, Russia is making tactical territorial gains, and this is putting pressure on Ukraine, Radakin added

At the same time, the fact that Russia spends more than 40% of its state budget on defense and security is a “huge burden” on the country.

By the way, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) previously stated that the Russian invaders will not be able to tolerate such large losses in the war against Ukraine indefinitely, especially for the sake of limited gains.