“Carrot and Stick”: What Communication with Trump Is the European Union Going to Build

“Carrot and stick”: what kind of communication with Trump is the European Union going to build? Alexandra Sadovaya

According to the Financial Times, the European Union is developing a two-stage trade strategy to counter Donald Trump if he is re-elected as US President. When he was the leader of the States, there was tension in relations between the EU and the US, in particular regarding customs rules.

This 24 Channel political scientist Vladimir Fesenko noted. According to him, there is also a certain risk now if Trump wins the US presidential election, so the Europeans are getting ready.

“Carrot and stick” concerns relations between the European Union and the US. There is a problem. I think that if Trump wins, they will begin to negotiate through his authorized representatives even before he becomes president in order to prevent new trade wars. If it doesn't work, then there will be a stick from the EU. They are getting ready for this. This is what should be done, especially in the case of politicians like Trump,” he emphasized.

How Trump can act regarding Ukraine

Politico wrote that some NATO member countries may refuse to support Ukraine if Trump becomes the leader of the United States. Volodymyr Fesenko noted that such publications should be taken calmly.

In addition, Hungary and partly Slovakia have already stopped supporting Kyiv in the forms that most NATO countries had in 2022-2023. Therefore, such a problem exists now.

However, there are concerns about whether the United States will fully fulfill its security responsibilities regarding Europe and Ukraine. Therefore, at the NATO summit in Washington, decisions were made that are certain fuses. In particular, there is a joint decision that next year there will be funding in the amount of 40 billion dollars for Ukraine just in case Trump stops direct military aid to our country.

Next is the logistics of arms and ammunition supplies, which is currently carried out within the framework of the Rammstein platform, but through the United States. Now it is being transferred under the auspices of NATO. In this way, the Europeans want to insure themselves so that Trump does not suddenly block arms supplies to Ukraine, the political scientist explained.

In his opinion, this is an unlikely scenario. Trump can put some pressure on Ukraine, for example, to initiate negotiations with Russia. However, it is unlikely that he will act contrary to the US partnership obligations.

“I think that Trump will act differently. He can transfer military aid to Ukraine to a different format, under the conditions of lend-lease. That is, providing us with a long-term loan. This is not gratuitous aid, for us it will be more difficult, but more or less acceptable,” Fesenko suggested.