Recently, leaders of different countries have increasingly begun to mention the Third World War in their speeches.
Where can it start? What alliances are being formed in the new global confrontation? Will it come to nuclear weapons and what exactly will the global conflict look like?
Experts tried to figure out what could stop the outbreak of World War III. Facts of the week.
Currently watching
The number of references to the Third World War in recent days seems to have broken all records. Moreover, they sounded from completely different people. For example, this week German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on ZDF television that Germany must be prepared for such events.
“We must again get used to the idea that there may be a threat of war in Europe,” he said.
Before this, Kim Jong-un spoke about the approaching “flame of a great war.”
— The Third World War is about to begin. Everyone must be ready! – he said.
In addition to the leaders of the countries, this topic was also supported by entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk.
Want to rest? Come to Facti.GAMES!
– I think that we are approaching the Third World War like sleepwalkers. With one senseless decision after another,” he said.
But if dictators traditionally scare people with this, then discussing a big war in Europe means that the topic has reached a new level.
If you look at the world map, there are now a number of local wars on it, among which are certainly the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel. These outbreaks of war can spark fires in other places.
According to preliminary estimates, the next war could start between North and South Korea, or between China and Taiwan.
The biggest fear is that regional wars, involving large nuclear countries, will develop into a global war, that is, the Third World War. So is it possible to prevent this now and how exactly?
A new round of global war forecasts began after the Hamas attack on Israel. After all, the greatest fears concern the fact that other countries will be drawn into the conflict. There is still a threat of Hezbollah opening a new front, which may be waiting for the right moment to do so.
Director of the Center for Middle East Studies Igor Semivolos says that Hezbollah's attack could occur if it becomes involved in heavy fighting in the Gaza Strip.
“If Israel becomes involved in heavy urban fighting, then we can assume that it is at this moment that the Northern Front will open. In order to prevent the opening of the Northern Front, American aircraft carriers are located there off the coast of Israel, which accordingly now play such an important deterrent role,” he says.
Involving Hezbollah in the war will in fact mean involving Lebanon, on whose territory this organization is stationed. And Iran, which is already part of the so-called Axis of Evil , along with North Korea and Russia, may openly follow Lebanon.
International security expert at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation Taras Zhovtenko says that the further, the more such hot spots will appear in different regions, which in the end will be aimed at maximally dispersing the resource of the West and the United States of America.
— To bleed the West as much as possible and lead to a situation where at some specific moment, with some specific crisis, conditions will be created when this Axis of Evil will be able to say to the West: “Well, you see, you can’t cope. You had that world order, but it no longer exists, because you are not able to maintain it,” he says.
Somewhat indirectly among the countries of the so-called Axis of Evil is China, which balances between political opposition to the West and economic ties with it.
— As of now, China is more likely to show solidarity politically and is engaged in the fact that it wants to attract the Global South to its side. He has many positions there and he actively uses these positions. We see Latin America, we see Arab countries, and Africa,” says Semivolos.
Retired British Army Colonel and military expert Glen Grant is convinced that in the event of a global escalation, China’s role is unlikely to be isolated.
— China is on the side of Russia, North Korea and Iran. There is no doubt about it. Therefore, this group is not going to change hastily. And we have already seen that there are some African states that are ready to join the Axis of Evil for money. On the other hand, we know that it will be NATO, this is Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand. And, in addition, we have undecided people. The BRICS countries have not yet decided. They are not in the Axis of Evil. They just talk,” he says.
However, according to experts, the new geopolitical confrontation is unlikely to take place at the level of clearly defined alliances, as was the case in the First and Second World Wars. Some countries on both sides are too closely tied economically to suddenly break them.
“In fact, these will be hybrid alliances, each of them will be built around a specific hot spot around a specific regional conflict. And these hybrid unions will include completely different countries each time. And in each region it will be an absolutely unique set of allies both from the West and from the so-called Axis of Evil,” says Zhovtenko.
Will it come to the use of nuclear weapons? This week, Putin signed a law revoking the ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, effectively dismantling the entire architecture of the system of international legal regulation of the use of nuclear weapons.
“Withdrawal from the test ban treaty is another one of Russia’s games. I mean, remember, they're playing many, many, many games now. Whatever needs to be done to create a problem within the body politic of America, they will do it. To create a problem in the political body of the EU and NATO – they will do it, because this is a hybrid war. So we have to look at this as another step in hybrid warfare,” says Grant.
It is the hybrid methods that have always been characteristic of Russia that will become the main feature of future conflicts, experts say. After all, a gradual heating of the situation, even in different parts of the world at the same time, is unlikely to lead to a direct exchange of nuclear strikes between key players, says Glen Grant.
“I am not a supporter of the opinion that we are rapidly moving towards World War III, which is about to happen. “I think we are in a Cold War situation, and I would call it that because none of the great powers would want a world war,” he said.
A fire extinguisher to the growing fire could be a dialogue between the key world players – the USA and China. The other day it became known that diplomats agreed on a meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco, which will take place in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
“Biden will probably say that we will respond to your expansionism if you expand.” And Biden will say these things to make it clear that he can't afford ambiguity. We had ambiguities before regarding Ukraine, and look where we are now. Ambiguity kills. So I'm confident that Biden knows this and will speak out clearly,” he says.
However, according to experts, such a forum is a reason for Xi Jinping to go without obligations, because this is not the level of an official visit.
– He (Xi – Ed .) will say: well, you understand, we can influence the Russians. Let's reduce the degree of confrontation in Ukraine. Through Iran, we can influence Hamas, Hezbollah, and more radical groups and thus influence the situation in the Middle East. Well, for this, first of all, you will officially treat us as an equal superpower,” explains Zhovtenko.
At the same time, if a strategic dialogue can be achieved at the meeting, then an official visit can be organized after that. Therefore, it is possible that Biden and Xi can simply come to an agreement for two, because it is in the interests of both sides to ensure such a balance of power in the world so that the conditional Third World War definitely does not become nuclear, because absolutely everyone will lose from this.
