< img _ngcontent-sc160 itemprop="contentUrl" src="https://24tv.ua/resources/photos/news/202401/2478193.jpg?v=1705995460000&w=760&h=428&fit=cover&output=webp"> Ukrainian defenders managed to shoot down a Russian plane on January 14 long-range radar detection of the A-50, which was a serious loss for the enemy. At the same time, the discontent of the citizens of the aggressor country is growing and sometimes they go out to protest. The guests of the program expressed their opinions on the latest important events “Toptema” on Channel 24with Artem Ovdienko – political scientist Nikolai Davidyuk, military-political commentator Alexander Kovalenko and reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexey Getman. Among the most important topics is whether Ukraine can repeat the success with the A-50 and why difficult times are coming for Vladimir Putin. Alexey Getman: There were three versions, a fourth was added – this is the S-200 complex. Before that there were either Patriot, or personally, or F-16. The S-200 missile can cover a distance of more than 200 kilometers. This is a very old anti-aircraft missile system; it cannot intercept high-speed targets or targets with an ineffective reflective surface, that is, small ones. At the same time, the A-50 is a large target, not very fast and has a large effective reflective surface. Therefore, on the S-200 all-round viewing screens, it would look like a very large target. When I saw the tail of the Il-22, beaten by debris, then This is a 100% anti-aircraft missile. It cannot be an air-to-air missile, because it hits the target differently, it is small. Most likely, the F-16 version can be discarded. If this is a true photo of the Il-22, then this is definitely any anti-aircraft missile. The element of such a destructive missile is not the explosion itself. The explosion here is used to scatter small debris, which, with the help of the kinetic energy of the movement of an air target, makes a “sieve” out of it. We remember photographs of the MH-17, which was shot down by the invaders in the Donetsk region – they showed the front part of this plane and it seemed to be damaged by such holes. What was on the tail of this Il-22 is very similar. Battered tail of the Russian Il-22/Photos from Russian telegram channels Alexander Kovalenko: If we talk about each of the versions, then, indeed, the version with the S-200 is quite possible. There are even modifications that have a range of more than 200 kilometers. But there is a nuance that does not allow me to completely agree with the S-200 version. The fact is that we recently converted these missiles for surface use. Unfortunately, their effectiveness against echeloned Russian air defense is lower than that of subsonic cruise missiles Storm Shadow, SCALP-EG and other weapons. Therefore, enemy air defense has the ability to intercept them. That is, the S-200 is not such a unique missile that has phenomenal speed and corresponding functions, such as Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG, which can actually jam in the format of electronic warfare, as well as counteract interference from electronic warfare. Accordingly, they have a low level of visibility of fixation and tracking by radar means. The S-200 is also a big “bandura” that can be seen and intercepted. Russian air defense can cope with this. Therefore, the version that the S-200 shot down the A-50 is theoretically possible, but I have doubts that it was the S-200. If we are talking about Patriot PAC -2, then officially in open sources their maximum destruction range is 160 kilometers. This raises a question. Let’s say that the A-50 could somehow be shot down, risking that the installation itself was located near the line of combat, because these are quite extreme distances. Characteristics of the downed Russian A-50/Infographics 24 Channel < p>This installation will not be brought to the battle line just like that. There must be a security buffer. We see that now the Russians have some of the Lancet modifications flying 70 kilometers deep into the rear territory. Consequently, this is a huge risk in using Patriot, because the loss of such an installation is a much greater reputational loss than the destruction of the A-50. However, another arises question – IL-22. It was shot down over the Sea of Azov at a much greater distance from the A-50 – closer to the Kerch Bridge itself. That is, it is outside the Patriot PAC-2. My version is:When Russia advertises its weapons, which supposedly have no analogues in the world, they predominantly inflate their characteristics. During 2022, when we began to capture a large number of their weapons, which we did not have before, the same Pantsir S1 air defense missile systems, the newer modifications of the T-72B3, T-90M Proryv, and so on, we saw that in fact, their characteristics differ for the worse. On the other hand, Western weapon manufacturers have slightly different tactics. When they present their products, they declare characteristics that do not exceed or exactly correspond to this weapon, or they are reduced. Therefore no one actually knows the maximum capabilities of Western technology. They can be fully installed when this equipment is fully used in combat operations to the maximum of these capabilities. Alexander Kovalenko: Now the Russians no longer have 7 A-50s. One of them has been undergoing modernization for quite some time, and the other two are in need of repair. The last times when regular duty in the airspace took place, it was the duty of 5 A-50 aircraft that was recorded. In fact, today they have 4 aircraft left and they will not be able to operate in the mode that was before. So, we can repeat it (destruction of another A-50 – Channel 24 ), because the Russians will still be forced to scramble these planes for duty. Without them, they will not be able to carry out reconnaissance activities in our airspace. They are dependent on these aircraft, as well as on the Il-22, which is the air command post and is responsible for stable communications between units. Alexey Getman: In order to prepare a massive strike, it is necessary to attract very different units, charge aircraft , issue a flight mission. That is, this is serious preparation. It is advisable to coordinate this with the Navy so that there is a simultaneous launch of Caliber, X-101, X-555. In addition, this must be coordinated with unmanned aerial vehicles – “Shaheds”, so that they are at the required point when the missile should arrive. Of course, without aerial reconnaissance, without such aircraft, the Russians can do this, but it is extremely difficult. We definitely messed things up for them. I'm sure there will be some delay in the next massive attack. On the other hand, this delay will result in them using more missiles than in previous attacks. The Russians make missiles. In a month they can produce up to a hundred – about 70 – 80 missiles. But during the pause between these strikes, they accumulate missiles. Nikolai Davidyuk: They are coming to the USA internal political auctions – whoever wins this budget will have the best chance of winning the presidential election. This is the last budget before the presidential elections. At the same time, Joe Biden is like a “good relative”. He gives 7 billion for two months, but not his own. We need about 6 – 7 billion dollars a month. Last month we received 3.5 billion from Bulgaria. It is likely that there was a non-public call, saying that we need to push harder, because Ukraine needs help. The IMF gave another billion, then Norway provided 2 billion, Germany also allocated 7 billion. they will not solve the problem themselves. We understand the figure that is needed for a month, and the States have given it more than once. When the USA sees that they cannot give theirs, they give others. The United States is exclusively concerned with its elections: the priority is neither the border nor us. But now they give money, so that’s not bad either. This is a guarantee, because the elections will be in November, there will be a transition period until January, and no one will give money there (funds – 24 Channel). What we will get now will be reinsurance for that January. For example, if Donald Trump wins the election, then Biden will no longer be able to give money. Trump can block them, so now it’s important not just to get these 60 billion, but to get it all at once. Alexander Kovalenko: Nowadays, the economy of ammunition in the combat zone is really quite strict, it is noticeable. However, in general, it is very difficult to talk about the shell famine of the Ukrainian army. During 2022, we made 5–7 thousand shots per day. The same will happen almost throughout 2023. Only in October did we sometimes reach the level of 9–10 thousand shots per day. APU firing from an anti-aircraft gun/Getty Images But the Russians in March and April 2022 could afford 60 – 80 thousand shots per day. Then it started to decrease. Now they (shoot – Channel 24) are at the level of 10 – 15 thousand shells per day. For almost two years of a full-scale war, we were generally constantly in a state of shell hunger, compared to the Russians. But they advanced, liberated our territories, and won. It’s really difficult now, but we see that deliveries are happening from our partners. < p>Regarding anti-missile systems, we really have some problems with anti-aircraft missile systems, especially the Soviet type, which are in short supply and are running out. On the other hand, we see that the Buk and Kub air defense systems are currently being modernized. Not only new equipment is being installed on them, as well as the ability to use RIM-7 Sea Sparrow and AIM-9 missiles as launchers. This is an opportunity to use a platform, of which we have enough, for missiles, of which our partners have enough. In addition, short-, medium- and long-range air defense systems are predominantly used against Russian missiles. Kamikaze drones today are destroyed mainly by small arms or anti-aircraft guns. The same Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns demonstrated themselves perfectly, as did our mobile interception groups. such cases. Nikolai Davidyuk: Now in Western countries it is meaningful struggle. They may not be able to give more missiles, but they can increase the political capabilities of those missiles – allowing Ukraine to shoot at Russia. This change occurred when they were already fed up with the number of arrivals in Poland and Romania. The first time, Vladimir Putin called and said that it was supposedly an accident. And then he got used to it and feels at home with his rockets. This is the typical psychology of a Russian man: a drunk man begins to beat his wife, and then asks for forgiveness. This is typical Putin: then he calls NATO and says they allegedly shot, but in the wrong direction. At some point this goes beyond all boundaries and they (EU countries – Channel 24) are calling for Ukraine to be given the opportunity to put this “drunkard drunk” in his place. Putin was the first to start, he moved the “red” line of missiles. NATO may not even sign up (Channel 24 is under this idea), because it will sound too loud and political for Putin. We must give him a gentle Ukrainization. We must say that it is not NATO, but the weakest EU country that gave Ukraine the go-ahead to shoot at the Russians, but only with its missiles, because NATO is against it. And let them give her all these missiles in the hundreds, thousands. Vladimir Putin/Getty Images Alexey Getman:Ports, Crimea, border areas. There are many targets, but few missiles. We will use them very carefully. First of all, it is necessary to destroy the anti-aircraft missile systems of the Russians – the same Triumphs, S-400. I would hold back these missiles for a little while until the F-16s appear. Then it would be possible to destroy anti-aircraft missile systems, and then our Su-24, Su-25, MiG-29 could fly there. The Russians would still have the opportunity to intercept them only with their own aircraft. And we would drive away the Russian planes or destroy the F-16s with which we would cover these attacking actions of ours. Then the Russians will not approach, because they will understand that they are vulnerable. Consequently, the Kerch Bridge can be destroyed with conventional bombs. Alexander Kovalenko: There is a political component to the issue of Germany transferring TAURUS missiles. The last time the Bundestag blocked this proposal due to a violation of the presentation procedure. However, there is another component that for some reason no one talks about. TAURUS is very similar in functionality to Storm Shadow and SCALP, but they are not integrated into the Su-24. They cannot be integrated into our front-line bombers. There is another point here in the context of this week. TAURUS Rocket/Getty Images The fact is that the best platform for TAURUS is either Eurofighter Typhoon or Saab Gripen. The Saab Gripen is the aircraft that Sweden recently announced that it intends to transfer to us. In addition, last year a group of our pilots left for Sweden to undergo basic training on the Saab Gripen. But in what context? Like, they will get acquainted with general ergonomics aircraft, cockpit and this will allow them to be more prepared for training on the F-16. Indeed, the concept is very similar, the cockpits and ergonomics are similar. But still, spend several months getting used to the cockpit in the Gripen and then feel free in the F-16, but why weren’t they sent, for example, to Romania or Spain, or to some other NATO country for such preparations, namely to Sweden for Gripen. So there is something to think about.
What could A-50 be shot down with
Can Ukraine shoot down another A-50
How the destruction of the A-50 affected the massive missile attacks
What will happen to the money from the USA
Will Ukraine have enough shells and anti-missiles for air defense
O possible permission to hit Russia with Western weapons
How Ukraine can use 40 SCALP from the French
Why Germany is delaying the transfer of TAURUS
Alexander Kovalenko: There is a very interesting point regarding air-to-air missiles. The partners have the best missile of this class – the AIM-120 AMRAAM, which has a flight range of more than 100 kilometers. It is ideal for hunting Russian aircraft, but there are some nuances.
It is this modification of the rocket that is most effective. And here, attention – with AWACS in combination. If we receive appropriate support from our F-16s, even from the airspace in Romania or over the Black Sea, then in fact this will be quite serious support, especially for the southern bridgehead of the left bank of the Kherson region, where we can establish complete control over the airspace.
Russian aviation, in order to counter the F-16, will also have to use long-range air-to-air missiles. But these missiles must also have additional guidance and receive appropriate information from A-50 AWACS aircraft.
F-16 fighter/Getty Images
In terms of technical characteristics, the Russians will still be inferior in terms of capabilities and performance. Thus, a stalemate will arise for them: either they will try to at least intercept the F-16 in the air, using this particular component, but risking both their fighters and the A-50, which is already worth its weight in gold. diamonds; or they will come to terms with it, endure it and forget about at least the airspace of the left bank of the Kherson region. at the career” name=”Putin is now having the most dangerous moment in the career”>Putin is now at the most dangerous moment in his career
Nikolai Davidyuk:It is important not to overestimate the protests in Bashkortostan, because there are only 5 thousand people there. In addition, the republic itself is well described in the constitution – as a ready-made state like Tatarstan. That is, the Russians, who were supposedly going to help them, but in fact to colonize them, according to the documents, did not even close their question.
Dagestan, Ichkeria and Bashkortostan are < strong> the three most fragile points, where you need to hit. We have already realized that we will not do anything with the European part of Russia: neither St. Petersburg nor Moscow came out, did not shake up Putin, that they do not want war.
Some leaders of Bashkortostan sit in Vienna, others in London, that is, we can work with this and definitely need to. Now there will be the most fragile moment in Putin’s career in history – the “coronation of the king” (elections in Russia – Channel 24). This is a fragile moment when you seem to be in power, but not yet in power. And this moment can be disrupted. There is a window of opportunity until March. Will anything come of this? I don’t know.
We should invest in nationalism there . This will give a peak point when people like Bashkortostan will start to break away, because there will be no room for federalism.
Fail Alsinov from Bashkortostan is not an environmental activist, as he is often portrayed. He is a political nationalist of his republic. He says he doesn't want the gold or the soda to be stolen. This is political history. In Bashkiria, now everything has come down to the fact that they are still calling for the preservation of their nation, they do not want to dissolve in the Russian empire among the Russians.
Protests in Bashkortostan/Screenshot from video
Bashkirs not they want to be called Russians. They encourage people to use the Bashkir language. But also, I repeat, there is no need to overestimate. We already had high expectations at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, when everyone wrote to relatives and friends in Russia, saying, come out.
Will Russia have enough strength to attack Europe
Alexander Kovalenko:All military exercises have some kind of scenario. This is really as close to what could have happened here. But under what condition? If Ukraine were captured by Russia.
Now Russia is concentrating all its resources on Ukraine: the military-industrial complex, the army. We have concentrated more than 460 thousand personnel of the Russian occupation forces. The entire military-industrial complex of Russia works precisely to compensate for losses in the technical component, mechanized component, and so on.
For such a scenario, Russia needs both – prepare your military, provide them, staff them. Now they can afford to mobilize 25 – 30 thousand per month, this is the peak figure. To go beyond this indicator and train new units, they need 50 – 60 thousand.
With repressive mobilization, their system will not withstand such a load. When in 2022 there were 100 thousand per month, then the Russian mobilization system almost burst. However, they will withstand 50–60 thousand. Then part of it goes to compensate for monthly losses in the combat zone, and new units are formed. But these new units need equipment and standard equipment so that they are fully combat-ready.
Yes, there is a danger for Europe. But above all, it is precisely because Ukraine is holding back this Russian invasion that Europe faces a hybrid danger from Russia.
In a sense, hybrid dangers pose a greater threat than open invasion. Why? Because, for example, the article of the North Atlantic Alliance does not spell out in detail how to act in the face of hybrid threats. There is an open threat, an invasion is detected, actions begin according to the tools in accordance with Article 5 of collective security. However, there are hybrid political, economic, energy and even migration threats.
About mobilization in Ukraine
Alexander Kovalenko: Accept the correct a solution (regarding the mobilization bill – Channel 24) is only possible in close communication between political and military circles. Only close communication can lead to the adoption of a correct, fully certified, effective bill.
In general, we need mobilization not just for the sake of mobilization. We need mobilization for victory. And we must realize this for ourselves.
