Publication author
Alexander Kochetkov
By the anniversary of the full-scale invasion, approaches to ending the war from all interested parties were made public. China was the last to publicly distinguish itself, and it acted in a way that irritated everyone else.
Allies may propose alternative peace plan
But in turn. The peace plan of Ukraine is well known. This is the defeat of the aggressor on Ukrainian soil, the complete de-occupation of all occupied territories, the return of prisoners and forcibly displaced persons, reparations and indemnities, and guarantees of Ukraine's security.
I like this plan, but it is somewhat maximalist, which means it is difficult to implement. Accordingly, it gives rise to inflated expectations of society. But this is the problem of those who introduce such a plan.
Our allies the US and Europe have publicly expressed their solidarity with Ukraine's peace plan. However, there is a non-public clause: “We give you everything we can to realize your intentions, but if you fail, then the US and Europe will offer their more realistic peace plan.”
As long as we have carte blanche: we go on an effective counteroffensive, beat the aggressor – and they will support us. The position of the Kremlin, which it officially and unofficially conveys to the United States, is also known.
Why no one perceives the Kremlin's opinion on the negotiations
The propagandistic rise in stakes, formulated by the famous maniac Alexander Dugin: “There will be either a victory for Russia, or there will be no humanity” – no longer works. The world is no longer afraid. That is why the Kremlin would like to fix the confrontation line as of today, agree on a ceasefire, bring in peacekeepers from the CSTO (!) and symbolically solve some humanitarian issues. Such a “Minsk.3”.
These are sick fantasies that no one in the world takes seriously. For it is obvious that the under-empire will take advantage of the respite solely to recruit new mobilized, rearm and continue aggression, using its resource advantage.
What's Behind China's “Peace Plan”
The final point was the “China plan”. Although this is not a plan, but China's vision of the situation from the point of view of Chinese interests. There are legends and anecdotes about pragmatic nations, in this sense they talk about Jews, Armenians. But they are all rosy romantics next to China, whose pragmatism is rooted in thousands of years of history.
Accordingly, in the vision of China there are slogans about respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, about the cessation of hostilities, about peace negotiations, about nuclear security, and about other cute cartoon pandas. But China does not plan to invest a single yuan in the realization of this idyllic picture.
China needs the US and Europe as a solvent market. China needs Russia as a source of cheap resources – energy, water, forests and other things, as well as a force that restrains the States. But China practically does not need Ukraine.
Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation is a story about how China is trying to buy something from us cheaply – be it grain or Motor Sich – and Ukraine is rudely throwing it away.
Until this situation changes, we should not count on some kind of not only support, but simply an objective position from China.
Let's summarize. The Western world, with China's non-resistance, tacitly gave Ukraine time until the end of the year to deal with the aggressor by military means. If this does not happen, the levers of coercion for peace negotiations will go. In this case, nothing good awaits us. Especially if you mention the high expectations of society.
So we are going to fist, support the front as best we can. We do not expect undeserved gifts from anywhere. For the fate of Ukraine has always been and remains in the hands of Ukrainians. Because Ukraine is not Russia.
