Until the end of 2022, Russia will have an acute shortage of shells, artillery and armored vehicles. All because of the sanctions that were imposed against the aggressor for attacking Ukraine.
Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot continue full-fledged industrial production of weapons and replenish stocks of quickly suitable weapons. During the six months of the war, the invaders used a lot of weapons and lost manpower.
Russia has few weapons and will have even fewer
Specialists note that guided missiles there are already very few, shells for artillery and armored vehicles will run out before the end of the year. The state of military aviation does not allow for a full-scale air campaign.
One of the underestimated problems is the end of Russian stocks of artillery shells. According to experts, Soviet cannon artillery shells could not be stored for a long time. Already in the summer of 2002, during the second Chechen campaign, the Russian army was faced with a shortage of artillery shells of the main calibers of 122 and 152 mm. This means that the entire Soviet artillery arsenal should be written off.
For half a year of aggression against Ukraine, Russia had to spend at least 7 million shells, without taking into account the losses of front-line warehouses as a result of Ukrainian strikes. If the intensity of the war continues, then by the end of this year the Kremlin will be a real shell starvation. Therefore, in order to save money, Russia will be forced to reduce the use of artillery.
Lack of shells is not the only problem for Russia
In addition to shells, the Russians also have a problem with barrel wear. For rifled artillery and tank guns, the barrels wear out quickly. By the end of 2022, the deterioration of artillery itself will lead to a sharp decrease in its effectiveness. In addition, back in 2020, the Russian military cautiously pointed out problems with artillery barrels, as well as the insufficient effectiveness of the system for field maintenance and repair of artillery pieces.
It turns out that the expected shortage of shells must coincide with the growing shortage of artillery pieces. Therefore, Russia began to strike at Ukrainian cities with the help of S-300 and S-400 air defense/missile defense systems. The ammunition stock of the corresponding missiles for these systems is thousands or at most tens of thousands.
Russia is masking the growing shortage of long-range missiles by shelling Ukrainian cities with long-range rocket artillery.
Intelligence on Russians' stockpiles of weapons
- Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, said that the situation with stockpiles of missiles in Russia is difficult. For more than 6 months of a full-scale war, Russia has exhausted a significant part of the reserves of its high-precision weapons. Now the stocks of some missiles are on the verge of the Russians.
- The British publication, citing an internal report from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, stated that the enemy weapons seized by the Ukrainian military from the battlefield do not meet modern requirements. Russian weapons are ineffective and outdated. Armored vehicles and helicopters are not able to withstand small arms fire, and missiles hit the target with only a 33% chance.
