Maybe the Belarusians, given the total hatred of Lukashenka, will take advantage of the presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Channel 24 Archive
Waiting for an attack by Belarus is a sinister Ukrainian fetish. After five months of our resistance, dozens of dates were announced when Lukashenka's “cockroaches” would go to Ukraine. But that hasn't happened yet. And, most likely, a direct military crossing of the Minsk cartographer and the bunker butcher will not take place.In Moscow, Lukashenka was dragged into a subjective clash with Kyiv for quite a long time. Though a scarecrow, even a carcass … But he mastered the role of a jester quite well. And – each time got off. In the end, the Kremlin's patience ran out and the “mustachioed” along with all of Belarus was sent for “transplantation”. In order to forcibly integrate the “organs” cut off from them into the internal system of the war with Ukraine.
Putin no longer requires military subjectivity from Belarus
It makes maximum use of geopolitical and military resources. We are talking about territory, infrastructure, the security sector and defense. Since February 24, the territory of Belarus has been used as a springboard against Ukraine and launched from there about 700 missiles.
According to experts, thousands of Belarusian mercenaries disappeared into the Russian armed ranks. the Kremlin attracted hundreds of units of Belarusian military equipment, as well as integral infrastructure complexes: airfields, repair plants and training grounds.
Belarus is maximally involved in the war against Ukraine. But not as a formally sovereign state, but as a resource barn. This model of subordination was chosen in the Kremlin not only because of Lukashenka's exemplary roughness.
They understand the difference between Belarusians and Muscovites. Therefore, the associated risks are calculated. The Belarusian ethnos, although mutilated by Lukashenka, is European in nature. It is different from the wild Asian shoot from which the Muscovite hybrid hatched.
In Belarus, despite the frenzied propaganda, the narratives of the Russian Federation are quite difficult to spread. According to a Chatham House poll, 85% of Belarusians consider their country's participation in the war against Ukraine unacceptable. Against – even the vast majority of Lukashenka's fans, who number up to a quarter of the population. Only 3% of respondents support the war. About half of Belarusians admit that their sympathies are on the side of Ukraine.
Given the lack of loyalty in the Kremlin to communicate with Minsk, they chose the format of forced “transplantation” of organs, followed by engraftment on another organism. At the same time, Moscow is not interested in the state of combat readiness of the “donor”. An informed source reports that they are determined to completely demilitarize their partner.
Weapons and military equipment are being exported en masse
In particular, artillery and rocket ammunition, as well as the Grad MLRS. Earlier, the Russian Federation had already carried out the ex-proprietary of Belarusian tanks. At first, it was believed that the Muscovites received armored vehicles from the storage bases from Minsk. However, Defense-ua claims that this unusable equipment could be transferred to the armed forces of Belarus. And her working combat vehicles were sent to Russia.
According to the publication, by the beginning of the war, the armed forces of Belarus had more than 500 T-72 tanks, of which about 20 were the Russian modernization of the T-72B3. A significant part was upgraded to the level of the T-72B Vityaz by installing Sosna-U sights, updating the commander's sight, integrating digital radio communication systems and satellite navigation. Su-25. It cannot be ruled out that in the near future at least one such squadron (12 aircraft) will be transferred to the Russian Federation for the war against Ukraine.
Informed sources report dissatisfaction and passive resistance of the Belarusian military, as well as conflicts between the senior officers of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation during continuous exercises and maneuvers near the border with Ukraine.
They are caused by different attitudes towards the Kremlin’s aggression, in particular the reluctance of the Belarusians to provide the Muscovites with airspace for missile and air strikes against Ukraine. These public sentiments determine the shortage of personnel of the armed forces of Belarus. This is confirmed by the recent dismissal of the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of Belarus Shkirenko, who the day before reported on the impossibility of mobilization.
The above factors give rise to strategic risks in relations between Moscow and Minsk, the main of which is a critical lack of trust. The military elites of both countries are torn apart by ideological contradictions. And the Belarusian society, although it still remains loyal to the Russian Federation, rejects its predatory narratives regarding Ukraine. Given this, the military potential of Belarus is being broken by the Kremlin, without taking into account real defense needs.
In such conditions, the probability of an attack on Ukraine by the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus is extremely low. As well as the attack from there by the Russian troops themselves, which are not enough to strike there.
Instead, provocations should be expected that should cause the defeat of objects on the territory of Belarus by Ukraine. According to Russia, this will change the attitude of Belarus towards Ukraine. For the same purpose, the situation around the possible defeat of the Belarusian border area by Poland is being escalated. In addition, any aggravation on the Belarusian border forces Kyiv to pull additional forces there.
However, under certain conditions, this aggravation will be fatal for the Russian Federation. No one will dare to guarantee that the expected counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to the east and south of Ukraine. If the situation requires tough actions from Kyiv in the north, then Belarus will become the field of the Ukrainian-Russian war. And then, it is possible that the Belarusians, given the total hatred of Lukashenka, will take advantage of the presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to topple the “mustachioed” regime and leave Putin's concentration camp. Such a course of events will be fatal for Putin.
