“Father” is getting ready/Lukashenka's press service
There are more and more prerequisites and signs that the Lukashenka regime will not stay on the edge and get involved in hostilities in Ukraine. There are so many of them that it is more correct to raise the question whether Belarus will enter the war, and when exactly will it enter?
Lukashenko “made” a choice
The prerequisites include the fact that the rashists have practically exhausted serious reserves of manpower. The Kremlin needs not so much tanks and guns as cannon fodder. This means that the Kremlin Fuhrer is ready to do anything to tie Belarus with Ukrainian blood forever. “, or the FSB quickly organizes something like a “Minsk people's republic” with a change of power to an absolutely pro-Russian, in fact, a military coup, and putting Lukashenka on trial.
It is clear that Lukashenka chose to reign a little more.
The traitor factor
The second serious prerequisite is that the Belarusian generals are not just under the influence, but under the control and support of the rashists.
Not only are the Belarusian and rashist generals all classmates and good friends in various maneuvers, they also and a solid career growth in the Russian army is promised.
Recall that it worked for us in the Crimea in 2014, it will work now in Belarus.
A noticeable part of the command in Minsk sincerely believes that it is with the joining of the Belarusian forces to the invasion army that Ukraine will immediately fall, and the occupiers will be able to start their main task – looting.
War games
A sign preparation of Belarus for war is the mass reactivation of armored vehicles and artillery, moreover, it is not transferred to the Russians, but remains in Belarus. As well as conducting exercises with a deadline of July 8.
In addition, contract soldiers are being drafted into the army in Belarus. Finally, the Iskander division and air defense missile systems have been transferred to Belarus. The final sign will be the concentration of forces by Belarus on the border with Ukraine.
Repulse of aggression
As far as I know, our General Staff perceives the threat of an invasion by Belarus as inevitable, and rightly so.
Invasion forces the maximum will be about 50 thousand people, up to 200 tanks, up to 400 armored personnel carriers, up to 500 units of cannon and rocket artillery. It looks like a solid fist, but only in theory.
Initially, the offensive of Belarus is planned on the Rivne and Volyn regions – well, yes, unsolicited protection from Poland … Our group with artillery, with the possibility of attracting aviation and everything necessary, awaits the invaders there.
We on our soil, we have fortified positions and – most importantly – targeted points. There is no doubt that with such a development of the situation, at the request of the Ukrainian leadership, Poland will support us with air defense and other capabilities (Poland's direct participation in the clashes is unrealistic).
If we are not ready like in the Kherson region, then the invasion forces from Belarus can (and should be) defeated in 3-5 days directly near the border, especially since you can attack there only along roads, and all of them are known.
In Ukraine, real hell should await them – MLRS , long-range artillery, aviation plus our mobile infantry with NATO weapons.
A matter of time
Now about the timing. If Belarus does not enter the war before the end of next month – July, then it will most likely never enter it.
