Bashkortostan has long been uneasy: could protests lead to the overthrow of Putin?

Protests in Bashkiria are of a nationalistic nature. This is not the first time that Russian regions are dissatisfied with their situation due to Moscow’s policies. Therefore, there is a high probability that unrest will begin in other republics.

The consequences of Russia may be truly unexpected. About this Channel 24said the head of the Sitting Rus' charity foundation, Olga Romanova, explaining that residents of the republics are already beginning to wonder why the war continues in Ukraine.

Rallies in Bashkiria are not the first time

The largest protest since the beginning of a full-scale war against Ukraine took place in Bashkiria. There they held a trial of activist Fain Alsinov, who was sentenced to 4 years in prison. The denunciation against him was allegedly written by the head of the Republic of Bashkortostan himself.

Local residents did not agree with the verdict and went out to protest. We are talking, according to various sources, about 5 – 10 thousand people who are not indifferent. It should be added that the population of the city of Baymak is 17 thousand people.

Bashkiria has been worried for a long time. A few years before the war there was a huge protest, which ended in a complete victory for Bashkir activists – the protests on Kushtau. By that time, Radiy Khabirov was already the head of the republic. He received Bashkiria for his use after many years of work in Moscow, next to Putin, noted Olga Romanova.

Protests on Kushtau

On August 3–16, 2020, a conflict occurred in the Republic of Bashkortostan around a deposit on the Shikhan (single mountain) Kushtau. Activists were dissatisfied with the actions of the official authorities, giving away local enterprises and land to people not interested in the development of the region. The background began two years before the protests. At the end of 2018, the head of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, said that the development of limestone deposits in Kushtau would be a compromise option to solve the raw materials problem of the Bashkir Soda Company. Locals opposed it because they feared the deterioration of the environmental situation; in addition, activists considered the shihans, in particular Kushtau, one of the symbols of Bashkortostan. In the end, the activists managed to defend Mount Kushtau from the development of its subsoil.

It is interesting to note that Khabirov is an ethnic Bashkir, but the Bashkirs were not satisfied with his rise to power.

“This huge protest is anti-colonial, nationalist. The Bashkirs are fighting for their national state, while still within Russia,” added Romanova.

All this goes on long before the previous protests in 2020. Residents are unhappy that the land of Bashkiria and its deposits are being exploited. And this is done by the head of the republic. And for work, interestingly, they hire people of other nationalities, because they can always be paid less – they seem to have no rights.

Will the rallies lead to serious consequences

The head of the republic, Khabirov, is apparently perceived as a hand of Moscow. It is assumed that the negativity now directed towards him may spread to Vladimir Putin. Although in fairness it should be said that now dissatisfaction with Putin is growing in general throughout Russia. . However, Russians are still very intimidated by the consequences of such actions. You shouldn’t expect that they will go overthrow the dictator tomorrow by taking to the streets en masse.

This whole structure is rotten, but still very strong. It will collapse as unexpectedly as the Soviet Union – when least expected. I think there will be many more “black swans” like Prigozhin’s march,” Romanova noted.

Besides, the Kremlin has a good action plan in case of mass protests citizens. Thus, in the Khabarovsk Territory, residents protested throughout the year (2020-2021) due to the arrest of the governor. They were not particularly dispersed, but the demands of the people were not met. The situation may be similar.

Protests may spread across Russia

Against the backdrop of all these events, residents of Bashkortostan are beginning to declare that the war in Ukraine is not their war. The Russians finally understand that their men are being taken to this war.

Until now, for some reason, people have not made connections between heating outages, accidents in housing and communal services, rising prices for eggs, lack of cars on the market, and the general economic collapse with the war. But that's starting to change.

I can't say these protests are encouraging. But these are not the kind of protests that will quickly disperse and fade away. Protests against colonial policies, reminiscent of a fire in a swamp. The flame jumped out from the depths, but if they are extinguished, it does not mean that the flame will disappear. “Everything in the depths will continue to burn,” Romanova noted.

It should also be added that such discontent is growing not only in Bashkortostan, but also in other Russian republics.< /p>

Protests in Bashkiria: what they say in Ukraine

• The Main Intelligence Directorate commented on the events in Russia. According to GUR representative Andrei Yusov, the situation in Bashkiria is only the beginning of large-scale discontent among Russians. We are talking specifically about dissatisfaction at the level of Russian subjects, who do not understand why their residents should die in the war against Ukraine, and in general remain only a subject when they have much greater potential.
• A similar opinion was expressed by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexey Danilov. In his opinion, the West should already be preparing for the fragmentation of Russia, which will be inevitable. In particular, the wave of protests in Bashkortostan is causing interesting processes in the territories of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Tatarstan and Dagestan.
• Adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mikhail Podolyak noted that one should not expect incredible results yet as a result of rallies in Bashkiria. At the same time, if they overturn in other regions of Russia, the situation will look completely different.