“Ramstein” works/Alexey Reznikov's twitter
This post may not live up to the expectations of many, but I think that it is important to show it this way.
Keine Lust
In February-March, the societies of the partner countries experienced mixed feelings of fear (before the Russian horde) and bewilderment (about the unexpected ability of the Ukrainians to fight this horde). Gradually they went through a wide range of emotions/feelings/feelings – admiration, sympathy, empathy, complicity in the fight against evil and injustice. And now they want to go to the sea. Where they will forget about the heroic Ukrainians. If I were them, I'd forget.
When they return from the sea in September, they will face the troubling prospects of an impending winter, heating, rising prices, and so on. We, with our troubles, if we are present on this agenda, then in a very non-obvious place.
Of course, I'm exaggerating, but not much. At the end of July, the parliaments of key countries will close for the holidays. Together with them, the government will go into suspended animation. August will fall. Some of them will be back in the election crucible by September. Someone will be preoccupied with the applied moments of the new financial year. And somewhere in it all we will be. Or we won't.
If we don't, the streams of help will become shallow, some will dry up. Several friendly countries will remain next to us, who understand that in case something happens, they are next. .
That is, we will have absolutely the opposite of what kind people in different countries expect from August.
Our tactical goal is extremely specific – to survive until the end of July and during this time to throw a bridge over which we will move to the autumn of the civilized world. Then survive in August while “normal people” catch crabs.
Which breaks down into a number of tasks, which in the field of defense are divided into short-, medium- and long-term. If we are not going to die somewhere in the autumn, we need to formulate clear medium- and long-term goals.
Ohne dich kann ich nicht sein
Ramstein's significance in our public space is exaggerated in the wrong direction . This is not a monthly day of visiting a dysfunctional orphan by respectable citizens, where they give him gifts. Few voiced gifts – it's a shame!
It works a little differently.
For starters – very rough and simplistic about what the Ministry of Defense is doing.
Ministry of Defense – solves military-political tasks. The General Staff is the military. In communicating with partners, the Ministry of Defense proposes a certain sequence or complex of military-political tasks that should create conditions for solving the military tasks of the General Staff.
In practice, it looks like this.
With the beginning of a full-scale Russian invasion, we understand that our army will end in a short time. The most obvious example is artillery. The shells will run out, the gun barrels will loosen, the artillery will fall silent.
The General Staff says that in order to solve the military task of repelling aggression, we need so many such artillery.
The Ministry of Defense looks and sees that :
- Soviet-style guns and shells are, in principle, scarce and there will be no more;
- even if we rake everything out, we will only delay the tragic end.
As a result, the Ministry of Defense began to build the following series of military-political tasks:
- Ensure the transition to the 155-mm caliber and receive the number of guns specified by the General Staff (the transition has been started; the initial request has been more than fully satisfied); (in process; as of 24.02 we had N guns of caliber that will die out, because 1) we are not able to produce/buy barrels; 2) there is no and will not be ammunition, because it is irrational to produce them: slowly, at exorbitant prices, etc., which in total does not solve the problem;
- Offer partners and implement a model so that assistance is provided not in the form of a certain number of guns, but in the form of organic units: when, say, an artillery battalion arrives with standard UAVs and counter-battery radars (there are already at least 3 examples when this is done; result – life-affirming);
- Offer partners to structure support programs for short-, long- and medium-term. So that we don’t operate with pieces of barrels, but understand that by August 1, the ZSU will “become capable”, that is, they will be able to solve specific tasks (there is a dialogue on this topic, there are shifts; when all the programs were written down in a column and put on the calendar, it became it is clear where the imbalances are);
- Basing cooperation programs on a mission-oriented approach. For example: unblocking ports is a complex mission, it requires a measurable and calculable set of screwdrivers, and so on or little?
If you look at absolute numbers, up to 200 guns is a lot by European standards. A lot of wild. If you look from the point of view of our tasks, this is extremely insufficient.
Therefore, objectively, we are in reality when we need to sincerely thank our partners. They have done a lot. But at the same time, it is necessary to show the real need, which grows in the course of the war. Much and very little – both statements are true in this case.
Amerika ist wunderbar
So. Rammstein is a format that came into existence thanks to the leadership of the United States. Today there are 50 countries. This format allows you to solve applied problems without unnecessary formalities. Unlike NATO.
This time it was very clear. First, Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov spoke to the defense ministers in the Ramstein format. And immediately after Ramstein, they are in front of them in the NATO format.
And if in Ramstein you can say: these three pieces of iron are coming here, here they are being manipulated, here the staff is being trained, and here they go to the front. For the participants in the format are united by the leadership position of Washington (including the personal position of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin) and good will. Then in NATO you can carry on a fascinating dialogue until you are blue in the face, which will end with nothing but the right words.
Therefore, the NATO summit may well turn out to be a dummy for Ukraine. The other day I wrote: in an article for the Atlantic Council, Minister Reznikov outlined how to avoid this – to lay in the NATO Strategic Concept a clear vision of the place and role of Ukraine with access to applied solutions using the example of aviation and air defense/missile defense. If this does not happen, NATO will only emphasize the limits of its capabilities at the strategic level.
Let's say the Ramstein coordination mechanism is already buzzing to its full height, and NATO is still concentrating. Coordinating the efforts of the same (!) European countries within Ramstein, NATO and the EU Military Headquarters is a separate creative task.
Rammstein makes it possible to agree on logic and turn it into practice in the short, medium and long distances. The process leader (USA) has the will and resources to drive it all.
But it also needs dialogue. In particular, at this stage, improving the effectiveness of the use of aid becomes the No. 1 priority. It certainly won't be unlimited. So ideas with organic units and so on are all about increasing efficiency. For there is no better way to demotivate those who tear them away from themselves and help you than to carelessly use help (which is why the Russians and other opponents of Ukraine hit precisely at this point).
In the context of leadership, it is also worth noting Britain and the minister personally Ben Wallace. It was the British who were the first to send us ATGMs in January. It was Wallace who initiated the convening of a donor conference for Ukraine in March. The second one has already been announced for August in Copenhagen (14 countries). Britain is subjective, and this is very important for Ukraine.
All this is a piece of the bridge that should help us survive and win.
Reise, Reise
Now, as for the specific results. They gave, they didn’t give, they gave a lot, they gave a little …
First. If you want to analyze – away from emotions. Then the facts will be seen. For example, the head of the OKMSh, General Mark Milley, said that the United States had trained about 1,000 specialists for Western heavy equipment for Ukraine, including 60 people for the Hymars. For those 4 units, the transfer of which has been announced, this is, to put it mildly, a lot. If we cry less about the fact that it will be necessary to immediately shell Belgorod from the Hymars, then these 60 people can very quickly become few. Time will tell.
Second. According to the laws of many countries, decisions on the allocation of military assistance or resources for defense are made by parliaments. Therefore, conceptually, we can agree. But before the approval of the parliament, it is incorrect to declare, even if the decision is guaranteed to receive support.
In general, those positions that went through a formal cycle of statements between the 2nd and 3rd Ramsteins have been voiced. The approximate horizon until the end of July is clear. In the coming weeks it will start showing up in decisions/statements.
Of course we want faster and more. Time is measured by the blood of our soldiers. And the work never stops. But 50 countries, among which there are global, regional and local players with their own atmosphere, their own internal agenda and external conflicts, is a very difficult zoo where approaches need to be found. The process of gluing decisions together is very difficult…
Against the background of the death of our people and grief, not everyone can appreciate the scale of the transition that has taken place. Even if tomorrow the team changes in the Ministry of Defense, no one will be able to say that the transition to Western calibers is impossible. That is, this is the very principle of integration into NATO de facto.
Movement along the logical chain, which I described very roughly and simplified, will ensure such mutual compatibility of our army with the Western ones, that with the military-political and military points of view, it would be an absurd misunderstanding to keep Ukraine in “open doors”.
