Ukraine is experiencing a significant demographic problem due to a rapid decline in the birth rate, excessive premature mortality, especially among men, and citizens leaving abroad due to hostilities and threats.
During martial law, the State Statistics Service cannot accurately count the number of Ukrainians, said Ella Libanova, director of the M. V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research.
She emphasized that since the mid-1960s, the average Ukrainian woman has not given birth to as many children as are needed for simple population reproduction, not to mention expansion.
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What new concepts may be in Ukraine?
Libanova proposed to form new concepts in Ukraine. Among them are reproductive goals for a two-child family and favorable conditions for their implementation. For example, opportunities for women to combine motherhood and work will help.
In particular, remote work, expansion of the network of preschool and out-of-school institutions, flexible forms of employment and development of a service system. Libanova noted that women can stay at home not only because of children, but also because of the need to care for one of the family members.
— I don’t dream of families with three children – it’s unrealistic. But at least two children for each couple – this dominant model would be wonderful for Ukraine, says the director of the Institute of Demography.
American demographer from the Institute for Family Studies and director of research at Demographic Intelligence Lyman Stone supports this idea. Otherwise, Ukraine risks losing in the long term, despite winning the war, he is convinced.
The birth rate has fallen critically
Demographers point out that in Ukraine during the war the birth rate fell to a critically low level. Previously, 1.16 children were born per woman, and in 2022 – approximately 0.9 children per woman.
The results of 2023 became even more catastrophic for Ukraine – about 0.7 children per woman. Demographers note that this is one of the lowest rates in the world.
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At the same time, Libanova expressed confidence that over time there could be some increase in the birth rate, even if the war lasts a long time.
However, we cannot yet talk about the necessary coefficient for the reproduction of generations (2.15 children per woman), not to mention the baby boom.
