Arrest of Shoigu’s deputy: ISW said what was behind it and what the consequences would be for the Kremlin

Ivanov could have been detained due to corruption or treason

Experts noted that Russia's Investigative Committee reported that Ivanov was detained by Russian authorities on suspicion of involvement in bribery. On the same charge, the Russian was officially arrested by the Basmanny Court of Moscow. military personnel, housing and medical support in the department of Sergei Shoigu, received bribes when performing contract and subcontract work for the Russian Ministry of Defense, analysts explained.

Ivanov’s likely business partner, Sergei Borodin , was also detained for complicity in a corruption case. Ivanov's lawyer announced his intention to appeal his arrest.

According to analysts, Russian media reported that the Federal Security Service had been collecting evidence about Ivanov's likely wrongdoings over a significant period of time, potentially ranging from one month to five years. The FSB has shown that its military counterintelligence unit is actively involved in the investigation, although, as Russian opposition sources noted, it is unusual for this structure to deal with corruption issues.

At the same time, the publication Important Stories, which claims to represent the opposition, noted that two sources close to the FSB said Ivanov was suspected of treason. Sources also claim that President Putin personally ordered Ivanov's detention under the guise of bribery charges.

In response to the article, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was not aware of these accusations , and called for “an end to speculation around Ivanov’s arrest.”

Ivanov’s arrest may be a sign of struggle within the Kremlin

ISW noted that Russian sources did not provide specific details regarding Ivanov's suspicion of treason. However, Ukrainian media, citing intelligence sources, recalled the Main Intelligence Directorate’s cyber penetration operation into the networks of the Russian Ministry of Defense in March 2024. During this operation, intelligence officials obtained official documents and confidential information about Ivanov, which led the Kremlin to initiate an investigation into him.

GUR sources reportedly noted that the Kremlin already knew about Ivanov's corruption, but did not specify what was detailed in the documents about him. We still need to find evidence to support Ivanov's charges of treason. But his arrest caused speculation in the Russian information space about a new round of personnel changes in the Russian army and allegations that this is part of the Kremlin factional conflicts, experts emphasized.

The so-called Russian “insider sources” also claim that the arrest of Ivanov, who is a supporter of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, may be part of efforts aimed at reducing the latter's power after the Wagner PMC uprising in June 2023. However, there is disagreement among these sources as to which faction is behind the actions to undermine Shoigu's authority.

Some suggest that GRU Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev targeted Ivanov in an attempt to fire him and another Russian official. At the same time, others believe that the group, linked to Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, is seeking to deprive Shoigu of his powers. Another source claims that Russian oligarch Gennady Timchenko was Ivanov’s defender and consistently defended his interests before Putin. Meanwhile, a pro-war blogger associated with the Wagner PMC claims that Ivanov was associated with the Kremlin faction advocating a “soft exit” from the war in Ukraine.

“However We did not notice the predominance of Russian claims that Ivanov's arrest was related to a specific factional dispute. Russian sources called this arrest the first of many expected personnel changes, especially among Russian deputy defense ministers, as well as the beginning of a “purge” in the Russian military departments. But we did not notice. signs that the Russian military has begun large-scale dismissals or detentions of military personnel,” the analysts concluded.