Publication author
Alexander Kochetkov
Lately, I have been talking a lot with the military at various levels. As a result, I have a rather optimistic picture.
APU will hold Bakhmut
I emphasize that we are talking about the military component. With political, with peace negotiations following the results of spring – summer, everything is much more complicated. There are too many yet unclear factors, so it makes no sense to run so far ahead.
I'll start with the current painful point of this war – with Bakhmut. The military task of deterring the aggressor in order to gain time for the preparation of our offensive reserves has already been completed. Therefore, in principle, it would be possible to withdraw our troops across the Bakhmutka River, and continue defensive battles there in new positions. But now our special forces have been transferred to Bakhmut, which noticeably moved the Wagnerites in the city and away from the highway.
This says that ours intend to hold Bakhmut. The military command knows better. But the political component here is obvious.
The propagandists of the under-empire inflated the district town of Bakhmut to the level of Stalingrad. They say that the main and turning point battle of this war is taking place here. Exaggerated, to say the least. Our political leadership, apparently, decided that since Bakhmut is Stalingrad for the Russians, we will not give it up. Moreover, we will arrange a boiler there for the invaders, as for the troops of Hitler's Paulus.
If there are such opportunities, then why not? It is difficult to overestimate the significance of such a result of the battle for Bakhmut – inspiration for us and demoralization of the enemy. Especially in anticipation of the offensive.
What is decisive in the offensive
But the main thing is still on other fronts. There are our reserve forces in many places – fighters, modern equipment. Already on the territory of Ukraine. All this continues to move from Poland towards the fronts. Therefore, one should not listen too reverently to Western politicians. It is better to follow how the NATO logistics service works.
The main guarantee of the success of the offensive is still not in technology and not even in the training of our soldiers on the bases of the allies. A platoon on the defensive, a platoon on the offensive – important, but not decisive. The decisive factor is the integration of our military, primarily the forces of the future offensive, into the operational information picture of the battle.
Our people on the front line are surprised that no matter how you interrogate a captured enemy mobilized, you still don’t learn anything sensible. Because they do not know anything: neither who is their neighbor on the front, nor the location of artillery and armor, nor reserves. That's nothing at all, except for his own trench and those with whom he was sent on a psychic attack.
By NATO standards, which we are guided by, even at the level of junior commanders, there is a complete picture of the battle. Together with NATO transport, this makes it possible to quickly respond to what is happening and track the changing situation. And, as a result, not to peck well-defended positions in the forehead, as the army of the under-empire does, but to nightmare the enemy from the flanks and rear, from where it does not expect. This just creates panic among the defenders.
It is clear that war is not a grateful process for forecasts. Because in war things don't always go according to plan. Regarding the situation today, it is quite achievable that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will reach the Sea of Azov, the Crimean Isthmus in the summer, as well as a serious advance in the Donbass.
However, in anticipation of success, we do not relax. Each one brings victory in his own area. We remember that the enemy is cruel and cunning, but we are on our own land and we know what we are fighting for.
