Europe is waiting/Getty Images
by the end of this week, Ukraine will receive the status of a candidate for EU membership. How important is this status and what does it imply in the near future?
What does the status of a “candidate” give
The political elite and most EU citizens are aware that if Ukraine suddenly decides to grant only the status of a “potential candidate”, this will lead to the same devastating consequences for the European project as the decision of the NATO Bucharest summit not to grant Ukraine a MAP in 2008.
If Ukraine receives the status of a candidate country, it will be the fastest decision in history. We filed a formal application for EU membership at the end of February, and a decision on granting us candidate status can be made in four months. This is unprecedented “quickness” for the Brussels bureaucracy.The candidate's status is fundamentally different from the current format of relations between Ukraine and the EU. According to the current Association Agreement, our Ukraine is an integral part of the European Neighborhood Policy, which did not provide for membership as the ultimate goal of partnership. In addition to Ukraine, the EU cooperates within the framework of the neighborhood policy with Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Belarus, Azerbaijan and some states of North Africa. At the same time, a positive decision at the June 23-24 summit will mean Ukraine's involvement in the EU enlargement policy and real chances for full membership.
After receiving the candidate status, Ukraine will need to implement the list of reforms that the European Commission noted in the recommendations. Candidate status will help Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, attract financial assistance needed to prepare for membership, and become a more favorable and safe place for investors. In particular, this is a fixation of mutual obligations between our state and the EU that Ukraine can become a member of the union after reaching clear criteria.
When Ukraine can really join the EU
According to the standard procedure after obtaining EU candidate status, the next step is to start accession negotiations between the candidate and the EU.
But in practice, this transition between stages can last from several months to several years.
In most situations, after granting candidate status to a country, it must comply with a number of recommendations from the European Commission in order to start a direct negotiation process for accession.
< p class="bloquote cke-markup">Albania fulfilled these conditions only 5 years after receiving the candidate status. Already after the recommendation of the European Commission to start negotiations on the accession of this country to the EU, France and the Netherlands blocked the start of negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia in 2019 and they still have not started. The official reason is “the EU's unpreparedness for enlargement”.
Therefore, one should not expect that immediately after receiving the candidate status, accession negotiations will begin with Ukraine.
However, even after the transition to this stage the negotiation process for a country's accession to the EU usually takes several years.
Among the most successful cases in Western Europe, I would cite the example of Sweden and Austria, and in the post-socialist countries – Poland and Croatia.
In general, the negotiation process has a different duration each time and is tied to the pace of reform implementation, and not calendar deadlines. On average, a country's accession to the EU takes almost 5 years from the start of negotiations. It was the fastest for Sweden and Austria (about 2 years).
For example, the last country to join the EU, Croatia, received candidate status in 2004, the membership negotiations lasted from 2005 to 2011, and then another two years went to the signing of an accession agreement, a national referendum and ratification of the agreement. Croatia joined the EU in 2013.
Poland received candidate status in 1994, the membership negotiations took place in 1998-2002, and the approval of the European Commission report and the entry into force of the country's accession agreement took another two years to the EU.
Stuck in the “candidacy”
Today there are 5 EU candidate countries and some of them have retained this status for many years.
Turkey has set a kind of anti-record. Ankara has been a candidate for EU membership since 1999, negotiations on its membership have been ongoing since 2005, but since 2016, due to the rejection of human rights requirements, they have actually been stopped.
In recent years, politics EU enlargement is focused on the states of the Western Balkans. North Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005, Montenegro since 2010, Serbia since 2012 and Albania since 2014.
By the way, accession negotiations with Montenegro, which has made the biggest progress among the Balkan four candidates, began in 2012 and have not yet been completed.
The EU enlargement policy clearly gives “slipping” in the Balkan direction.
I should note that despite the regulation of the accession procedure and the definition of economic and legal criteria, the decision of the EU to open and complete negotiations with a candidate country is political and is taken by European institutions with the unanimous support of 27 member states.
If assess Ukraine's readiness to join and disregard the factor of war, we are quite well integrated with the EU in a number of areas of the single market. In particular, at the end of 2021, Ukraine has fulfilled more than 60% of the volume of the Association Agreement.
What is the procedure for admission to the European Union?
According to Art. 49 of the Treaty on European Union, any European state that respects and promotes the democratic values defined in Article 2 of the same Treaty can join it.
In addition, candidates must meet the Copenhagen criteria – the key conditions for EU membership, which were defined back in 1993. These are the presence of stable democratic institutions, a market economy and the ability to effectively fulfill membership obligations.
In a simplified form, the procedure for joining the EU consists of 3 stages: obtaining the status of a candidate, negotiations on membership and concluding an appropriate agreement with its ratification by European institutions and member states.
On obtaining the status of a candidate in accordance with Art. 49 of the EU Treaty we have already mentioned. The key stage is negotiation, it starts with the decision of the EU Council to start accession negotiations with the candidate country. The activity of the transition to this stage depends on the will of the EU states. This leads to the fact that even between the successful completion of the first stage and the transition to the second, a lot of time can pass. The deadlines for moving from stage to stage have not been determined.
For example, North Macedonia (candidate since 2005) and Albania (candidate since 2014) still cannot start negotiations under the second stage.
The essence of the negotiation stage is that the candidate country should unify its legislation with the EU law. This is done in 35 different chapters, and by closing each negotiating chapter, the country will gradually move to the next one. These chapters are divided into 6 clusters: basics; domestic market; competition and inclusive growth; green agenda and ongoing communication; resources, agriculture and cohesion; foreign relations.It should also be noted that, according to the current entry rules, negotiations may be interrupted. In 2020, due to the problem of the Western Balkans, the principle of “repulsion” was introduced: the EU can stop and re-enter negotiations if the country does not perform satisfactorily in meeting the requirements for entry.
After all EU members unanimously decide to close the negotiation process, since, based on the conclusion of the European Commission, they consider that the country has incorporated all 6 clusters, the parties sign and ratify the Accession Treaty, after which the candidate officially becomes a member of the European Union.
Can the war in Ukraine speed up this process?
However, the war complicates the process of negotiations and accession of the candidate country. While Russia continues the active phase of the war against Ukraine, it is difficult to physically discuss and implement reforms.
Let's turn to the position of the EU presidency on this score. At the Versailles Summit of the European Council on March 10-11, the President of France noted that although his country is in solidarity with Ukraine, it is not possible to open the process of accession to the EU of a country at war. In May, he added to this statement: even with the status of a candidate, Ukraine will be able to complete the accession process in a few decades, otherwise the Union would have to lower its standards.
But, in our case, I would not fall into pessimism. At least I can recall an eloquent example of the admission to the EU of a country that has unresolved territorial issues.
In 2004, the EU has already accepted into its ranks the country – Cyprus, whose government does not fully control its state territory. The Republic of Cyprus formally joined the EU within its internationally recognized borders. However, as we know, since then, EU law has not been applied in the self-proclaimed “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”.
Thus, in the practice of the EU there is an approach by which temporarily occupied states can become members of the EU, while the formal jurisdiction of the Union and its common defense policy obligations do not extend to non-government controlled areas.
I cannot fully agree with the opinion of my individual colleagues that no reforms are carried out at all during the war. However, in the list of 7 points on Ukraine there are such remarks of the European Commission, the implementation of which may be complicated in the conditions of war. This applies primarily to anti-money laundering legislation and anti-corruption infrastructure. These reforms need independent coverage and public discussion, which is almost impossible under martial law.
Probably, negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU will begin after the end of the active phase of hostilities. Kyiv will follow a similar path with the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. In the case of Poland, the period between the application for admission and the start of negotiations lasted 4 years, Hungary – less than a year, the Czech Republic – 2 years, Romania – about 5 years.
We must understand that the issue of EU enlargement is a complex consensus of all states. As you know, there are some issues between Member States and candidates. For example, the current dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia over historical heritage. In this situation, we need to understand that during the negotiations we will have to look for a common denominator with Budapest in the field of the rights of national minorities, and with Warsaw in historical heritage, and with picky Copenhagen in anti-corruption measures and combating money laundering.
In general, the negotiations look like this: the EU provides recommendations, and then checks how carefully they have been implemented. The situation when Ukraine, referring to the war or the difficult post-war economic situation, agrees to fulfill some requirements, while considering others unacceptable for itself, will not work. It depends only on us how quickly and decisively we will follow the path of reform.
Why can't Europe now accept Ukraine into the EU?
Ukraine must realize that there is no “immediate” entry into The EU cannot happen.
The European worldview is not only a high standard of living, protection of the individual and equality of opportunity, it is above all respect for procedure. From the position of the key EU countries, it is clear that no one will make exceptions at the stage of negotiations for Ukraine.
The algorithm for admission to the EU is the same for everyone: first, the application, then the status of the candidate, then the implementation of recommendations, conclusions and the procedure for voting for entry. And this whole procedure cannot take less than 3-5 years under the most optimistic scenario and maximum assistance regime that Ukraine can count on today.
In fact, the speed of an individual country's accession to the European Union is determined not only by the intensity of European integration reforms. An important component is the political will of the EU members and their desire to accept a certain state into the Union or continue the policy of enlargement.
The above-mentioned case of North Macedonia is indicative. She applied for membership in 2004, but negotiations have not yet begun: until February 2019, they were blocked by Greece because of the name of the state, and since 2020, Bulgaria has imposed its veto on negotiations with Skopje due to historical and cultural disputes.< /p>
Today, most of Eastern and Central Europe support the rapid accession of Ukraine to the EU, while countries more geographically distant from us favor the traditional accession procedure.
Recent statements by European politicians do not reflect the real readiness of Ukraine for membership, but rather their the desire to accept Ukraine, taking into account their own national interests. From the high offices of Vienna and Berlin, there is dissatisfaction with the fact that Ukraine is trying to overtake the countries of the Western Balkans in the movement to the EU.
The work of the European Commission is intended to balance all these visions and bring the wishes of the EU countries to a common approach with the candidate countries.
The Russian threat and other “phobias”
Western European countries are frankly concerned that the accession Ukraine to the EU may provoke further Russian aggression, noting that, according to the “mutual assistance” clause of Art. 42 of the EU Treaty, Member States must provide assistance by all possible means to a Member State in the event of armed aggression.
In my opinion, such “phobias” can be easily removed from the agenda by applying in the transitional provisions of the future Treaty on the Accession of Ukraine to the EU the provisions that the common security policy of the EU and the obligation of mutual assistance in accordance with Art. 42 of the EU Treaty applies exclusively to the territory of Ukraine controlled by the government on the date of accession.
There is also an objective reality – some countries believe that the accession to the EU of a state with an economy that suffered greatly before the war will destabilize the economic situation of the entire Union.
To join Ukraine to the EU subjective factors, such as the very ability of the association to expand, will also be affected. Certain skeptic countries, including France and the Netherlands, are generally against further EU enlargement, but insist on reforming the organization and deepening ties between current members.
Thus, in October last year, the EU-Western Balkans summit was held, at which European leaders noted the importance of ensuring the ability of the Union to accept new members. Whether the EU is able to take the next step, we will see in the near future – after all, on the eve of consideration of the issue of candidate status for Ukraine, on June 23-24, the EU-Western Balkans summit is scheduled again.
Be that as it may, further expansion The EU is unlikely without the introduction of the principle of a qualified majority when making key decisions.
