Air raid or massive rocket attack: what to expect from Russia on February 24

Ukrainians are looking forward to next week with some apprehension due to the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion. Officials warn that on Friday, February 24, Russia may be preparing another massive attack. In addition, on February 21, Vladimir Putin is preparing an address to the Russians.

There are discussions in the information field about what Putin plans to say on February 21, and what the Kremlin dictator plans for the anniversary of the full-scale invasion. 24

Channelanalyzed the statements of officials and experts, as well as analysts' reports.

Putin's sacred dates: what happened in the past

In the year of a full-scale there were several sacred dates for the invasion, on which Putin could plan massive shelling or loud statements. For example, Putin was expected to make loud statements on May 9.

The media discussed that Putin could announce mobilization in Russia, an invasion of Moldova, a “referendum” or the annexation of the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia. However, none of the above happened on May 9, as well as a massive shelling.

In autumn, Putin announced the so-called “partial” mobilization in Russia, as well as the annexation of Ukrainian territories, but did not connect this with a sacred date. Moreover, after Putin announced the annexation of Ukrainian territories, the Defense Forces returned Lyman, and subsequently Kherson.

Something unusual from Putin was also expected on his birthday – October 7th. However, this time the Kremlin dictator did not announce anything out of the ordinary. Putin received a “gift” in the form of an explosion on the Crimean bridge on October 8. It was after this that the Russians began a long series of massive shelling of Ukraine.

After all, perhaps the only case when Putin connected something with outstanding dates was shelling on Christmas Day on December 25, as well as attacks on New Year. However, in this case, we are talking, most likely, about the intention to spoil the festive mood for Ukrainians, which resorted to terror.

Before February 24

The next week promises to be very busy. First, Germany hosted the Munich Security Conference. In Munich, a number of important decisions were made on military assistance in our country.

Thus, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that Western countries have learned important lessons from this war. The most important of them is that the world must provide Ukraine with everything necessary to defeat Russia.

Other leaders voiced similar opinions. In particular, the Prime Minister of Great Britain called on the allies to double their aid to Ukraine and noted that the West must provide Ukraine with security guarantees.

Important! Ukraine's Western allies are indeed, more than ever, determined to help Kyiv fight back against the Russians. The whole world has already seen confirmation of this today. On February 20, US President Joe Biden arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit. The American leader announced a new package of military aid worth billions of dollars. The key thesis of the visit is that Ukrainians will continue to win on the battlefield.

As for Russia, on February 21, Putin is preparing a speech before the federal assembly. And after that, on February 22 in Moscow at the Luzhniki stadium, a rally-concert dedicated to the anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine is to be held, where Putin will also make a speech.

To be continued on February 23 – the day of the Soviet army and February 24 – anniversary of the invasion.

Ukraine warns of a massive attack

In February, the Russian military has already massively attacked Ukraine twice. The first attack occurred on February 10, after which it was repeated on February 16.

During the first attack, Russia used 71 missiles, of which 61 air defense forces were shot down. At the same time, on February 16, the invaders fired significantly fewer rockets – 32, of which 14 were shot down.

Russian shelling with a difference of 6 days violated the logic of massive rocket attacks, which occurred once every 10 to 14 days. Until February 10, the previous massive attack was on January 26.

The Air Force is ready for possible attacks

Air Force Speaker Yuri Ignat noted that the situation is now being escalated due to the anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion . He noted that the invaders love sacred dates, so everyone expects massive missile attacks.

“The enemy also wants to show the significance of this war. Perhaps that is why the situation is escalating, everyone is expecting an aggravation of the situation, strikes against critical infrastructure facilities or other facilities in the eastern direction, on the line of military clashes,” Ignat said.

A representative of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is convinced that one should not expect very dramatic events, because the Russians daily launch missile strikes and attack the positions of the Ukrainian military on the front line.

At the same time, according to Ignat, the Air Force of the Armed Forces The forces of Ukraine are on increased alert.

Warning from the OP

Adviser to the Office of the President Mikhail Podolyak warned that Russia could launch three waves of missiles on February 24.

Podolyak is convinced that by the anniversary of the start of a full-scale war, the Russians will try to accumulate the amount that they always use for a “massive 3-wave cascade “and show that they still have “gunpowder in the flasks.”

He drew attention to the fact that Russia has a shortage of missiles, in particular, during the shelling on February 16, the invaders used 32 missiles, and not more than 60 – 70 as usual.

Andriy Yermak, head of the OP, said that on February 24, Ukraine is ready for different scenarios.

Do not forget that we have a great air force, so listen to what these people who know how to shoot down Russian and other air targets,” Yermak wrote.

The strike could be February 23-24: Danilov’s statement

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov also believes that on February 23-24, the Russians may resort to a new massive shelling. At the same time, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council noted that the new attack will not affect the course of the war in any way.

They are preparing and will try to make another attempt at a massive attack on February 23-24. This needs to be taken more calmly. Moreover, we are ready for this,” Danilov emphasized.

He added that Ukraine has experienced more than one massive attack, so it must cope with new shelling.

“So, I'll say it again, it will be hard. We must prepare for this. We must remain as calm as possible. Understand that we will definitely win,” Danilov concluded.

Terror on sacred dates: what they say in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ISW

Natalia Gumenyuk, head of the press center of the Security and Defense Forces of OK “South”, said that in the period from 22 to 24 February, Russia may be preparing a massive missile attack.

“Calculating the tactics of the enemy, we can predict that, in all likelihood, from February 22 to February 24, when in Russia the relevant events have sacred significance at the highest state level, these days may be accompanied by such methods of terror that the enemy uses during this full-scale invasion. Then there is an enemy who uses these methods of terror as an accompaniment to their events or as a response to the unification of the world community against their activities,” Gumenyuk said.

In addition, Gumenyuk noted a change in the tactics of the invaders due to the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense. According to her, the Russians are beginning to use wave attacks, which combine Shaheeds and missiles of various types and directions.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Kremlin may launch another series of missile strikes on civilian targets throughout Ukraine to celebrate a symbolic anniversary.

ISW says that the occupiers have not achieved military success at the front, and therefore use terror against civilians.

Russia is gathering aviation: will there be a massive use of aircraft

Officials in Ukraine, as well as Western partners and the media, have warned that Russia is preparing a major new offensive in early 2023. In Ukraine, they already say that the Russian offensive continues, in particular, in the Donbass. However, near Bakhmut and Ugledar, the Russians are not successful, suffering record losses in the war.

Against the background of Russia's likely setbacks with the offensive, the British edition of the Financial Times, citing its sources with intelligence exchanged by NATO allies, reported that Russia is accumulating aircraft near the border with Ukraine.

This may indicate that the occupiers are preparing to deploy their planes and helicopters to support the stalled ground offensive.

Pay attention! Speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat noted that he was somewhat surprised by this information. But he emphasized that aviation is not tanks, it cannot be pulled to the border.

What the OP and experts say

Adviser to the Presidential Administration Mikhail Podolyak reassured that so far there has not been a significant increase in the number of aviation equipment that could fundamentally affect the course of the war.

At the same time, he noted the irrational thinking of Russians who do not analyze the war. Podolyak hints that anything can be expected from the Kremlin, since a massive air raid can cause serious losses for the enemy.

Podolyak recalled that Russia almost always uses exclusively strategic aviation to terrorize Ukrainians from its territory and tactical aviation from Belarus. In simple terms, the Russians hide their planes from the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

They can increase the intensity of shelling by pulling up some more artillery, but again, this is not very important, – he said and added that Ukraine would destroy Russian aircraft if their number increased.

Military analyst, reserve major of the National Guard, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war Alexei Getman said that the Russians had concentrated about 400 aircraft and 300 helicopters near the border with Ukraine.

Given that Russia has an advantage in the sky, Ukraine will rely on air defense forces in the fight against enemy aircraft.

“If they climb in large numbers, I hope that our air defense will fight back. A lot since it demonstrated that we are able to work with the complexes that we had and that the allies supplied to us. I think that nothing will change significantly. But this is another load that they will put on us,” Oleksiy Hetman emphasized.

Hetman is convinced that Ukraine is likely to face massive missile strikes, but not on February 23-24. Russia will strike a little later, when the Ukrainians relax a little. According to him, the occupiers will combine rocket attacks with balloons, which deplete the work of Ukrainian air defense.

Where Russia can use aviation: ISW analysis

The American Institute for the Study of War doubts that Russia will commit a significant amount of aircraft to combat operations over territory controlled by Ukraine.

Analysts have admitted that Russian fighters can support a ground attack.

A senior official NATO reported that 80% of the Russian air force remains intact. Russian forces are reportedly trying to disable Ukrainian air defenses in preparation for a massive strike campaign.

The British Ministry of Defense reported on February 16 that the number of Russian sorties had increased over the past week to levels last seen in the summer of 2022.

At the same time, they said that Russian forces had not increased their air presence in Ukraine . Therefore, Russian forces are unlikely to prepare for a prolonged air campaign.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense are not enough to counter a new wave of air attacks. However, according to him, there are no signs of an imminent massive Russian air attack.

British Mini-Defence Probability Estimate

On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that there is no evidence of a large concentration of Russian forces, compared to those on February 24, 2022.

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