The Ukrainian military, our and foreign intelligence services, and President Vladimir Zelensky have repeatedly said that Russia is preparing to launch missile attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, as it did last winter. The goal of the occupiers is unchanged – to leave Ukrainians without light and warmth, to make us suffer.
There have been no massive missile strikes for several months. The military and intelligence officers assure that the Russians continue to produce all types of missiles and “save” them specifically for attacks on our energy sector.
In recent weeks, Ukrainians have been observing quite long air alerts due to Russian MiG-31 fighters scrambled into the air, which, by the way, are carriers of Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.
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In a commentary to ICTV Facts, the deputy director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research, Mikhail Samus , explained why the occupiers began to raise MiGs so often.
What does the MiG-31 takeoff portend?
According to the expert, when the Russians fly fighter jets, they practice several tasks: pilots train, plot routes, refuel aircraft in the air, and most importantly, conduct reconnaissance of the locations of our air defense/anti-missile defense systems (air defense/missile defense).
With the takeoff of the MiG-31 aircraft, the work of the Ukrainian missile defense systems is activated, and our radar stations begin to operate. For example, only the American Patriot air defense system and the Italian-French Samp/T can shoot down Kinzhal ballistic missiles. And it is very important for invaders to know where all this is so that they can get around it.
“Russia can use its radar systems, space reconnaissance, agents, which can also monitor the activation of Ukrainian air defense and map its detected assets,” notes Mikhail Samus.
By the way, the Dagger strike is quite insidious, because if you launch these missiles near the border and along the border regions of Ukraine, the flight will last only a few minutes.
In addition, the takeoff of the MiG-31 also puts psychological pressure on Ukrainians. An air raid alert lasts two to three hours—all this time you need to be either in shelter or in anticipation that there might be an attack.
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According to Mikhail Samus, the availability of MiG-31 carrier aircraft is important for Russians. While the Russian military-industrial complex can build Kinzhal missiles, it cannot build airplanes.
The MiG-31 is a Soviet long-range, high-altitude fighter-interceptor. He is one of the fastest fighters in the world. The Russians have a limited number of such aircraft. And it would be good for us to hit the airfield where the MiGs are based, the expert notes.
– Now only the MiG-31 can carry Daggers, since these fighters can give the missile greater speed. That is, the plane gains maximum altitude, maximum speed and launches a ballistic missile, which has its own speed. Taking these factors into account, the Dagger achieves hypersonic sound. Perhaps this rocket can be launched from other aircraft, but it will be at lower speeds, says Mikhail Samus.
The expert notes that to intercept enemy long-range missiles, we need more Western air defense systems such as the American Patriot and the Italian-French Samp/T.
What are the most likely targets and what will they hit with?
That year, the Russians began attacking Ukrainian energy facilities on October 10. The attacks were massive – sometimes more than 70-100 missiles, and even in combination with kamikaze drones. Ukrainians could sit without electricity sometimes for two days. But despite such attacks and not very strong air defense, the terrorists did not manage to “put down” our energy system. We are much better prepared for the coming winter, assures President Vladimir Zelensky.
Representative of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Yuriy Ignat noted that year that the occupiers actively monitored Ukrainian social networks, used drones, and attracted agents from local traitors for additional reconnaissance of targets. This year the enemy's tactics have not changed.
According to the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Vadim Skibitsky, it is most likely that the occupiers are waiting for the air temperature to drop below zero, because then consumption will increase and there will be a greater load on the energy system.
The Main Intelligence Directorate believes that the enemy will mainly use cruise missiles, such as Kh-101, Kh-555, Caliber. They will hit you with Daggers and Iskanders. Intelligence predicts that the attacks will be combined, that is, Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones will fly along with the missiles. By the way, the occupiers established their own production of the latter in Tatarstan. In general, the enemy will launch everything he has into Ukraine.
SBU representative Artem Dekhtyarenko said that since the beginning of a full-scale war, the Security Service of Ukraine has investigated almost 400 criminal proceedings against 257 people who corrected and directed enemy fire. 77 spotters were convicted. Russian henchmen are working all over Ukraine, but most actively in the front-line regions. They recruit through social networks.
Russian informants “hunt” not only for the coordinates of the location of Defense Forces units, checkpoints or air defense systems, but also for civilian objects – schools, warehouses, energy and logistics infrastructure. One of the most terrible cases was the attack on the village of Groza in the Kharkov region.
Typically, the gunner, on the instructions of the curator, must check a certain location, photograph it, and transmit the coordinates.
The occupiers recruit ideological supporters of the “Russian world” who are willing to work for money, rewards or positions in the occupation administrations, as well as those who can be intimidated by blackmail and threats.
How are Ukrainian energy facilities protected?
Ukraine, in addition to strengthening air defense during the “missile lull,” actively built physical protection of power plants.
The head of Ukrenergo, Vladimir Kudrytsky, said that energy facilities will have three levels of protection. The first level is simple protection from blast waves and debris – these are metal and concrete barriers, gabions (mesh structures filled with bulk materials) and the like. The second level is protection against direct hits from Russian drones. The third level is the most complex and largest – it is comprehensive protection against Shaheds and missiles.
Kudritsky noted that it is unlikely that we will be able to protect ourselves 100% from massive missile attacks, but we can significantly reduce the risk. In addition, it is important that the speed of restoration of energy facilities be higher than the speed with which the enemy destroys the energy system.
Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko also noted that at temperatures below zero, it is more difficult for energy workers to restore infrastructure, so it is important for the occupiers that the minus is stable.
The intelligence services of Great Britain and Estonia warned about Russia's possible preparation for massive attacks on the energy system of Ukraine. They stated that this is precisely why the enemy is stockpiling missiles.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, also said that Russia is unlikely to abandon attacks on the energy system in the fall and winter.
