Another month of full-scale war with Russia has passed. November was very busy. During this time, many events happened at the front.
The invaders are advancing near Avdiivka and even have partial success in the industrial area. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening their positions on the left bank of the Kherson region.
Zelensky calls for accelerating the construction of fortifications in certain directions. Read about the liquidation of the Russian military who executed Ukrainian defenders and other important events from the front in the ICTV Facts material.
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Kherson direction
Avdeevskoe direction and construction of fortifications
Ukraine-NATO Council and F-16
Execution of Ukrainian soldiers
Missile shortages and Shahed attacks
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Kherson direction
ISW reports progress on the left bank of the Kherson region, but the Ukrainian command almost does not comment on this issue.
In fact, according to the ex-platoon commander of the Aidar battalion and ATO veteran Yevgeny Diky, very important events are taking place on the left bank of the Dnieper, and the General Staff refrains from disclosing information so as not to harm the Defense Forces and so as not to give the population vain hopes.
“If our bridgehead can be not only maintained, but also significantly expanded, the highway that connects Crimea with Melitopol will come under attack. This is the main route along which the main logistics of the southern group of occupiers are carried out. The alternative is only a very long route from Rostov through Mariupol,” says the military man.
Diky notes that now all supplies for the Russian military, in particular in the Zaporozhye direction, come precisely from Crimea, and in this way it will be possible to cut off the channels for the delivery of weapons and personnel to the invaders. However, according to the expert, this is only possible with optimistic developments.
Deep State Map
– This is a good scenario for us. There are no secrets here, just look at the map. And of course, this is also no secret to our enemies and they are very concerned about this bridgehead of ours. Now they are gathering a large group of military personnel and will try to demolish the bridgehead of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Dikiy added.
However, the ATO veteran emphasized that the occupiers are now experiencing a severe shortage of personnel. Therefore, the Russians are gathering this strike force from all over the front. According to him, they have almost collected the 70 thousand soldiers needed to push back the Ukrainian defenders from the left bank. However, time will tell whether the Russian military will succeed in this.
Avdeevskoe direction and construction of fortifications
The most difficult situation now remains in the Avdeevsky direction. And although at the beginning of the month, when the invaders had just begun to advance near Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a record amount of equipment and personnel, in just a few weeks, subsequently the enemy began to gradually push through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Geolocation footage from November 24 indicates that the Russians have advanced north from Krasnogorovka, 7 km northwest of Avdeevka. Now the third wave of the Russian offensive is ongoing there.
Recently, President Zelensky said that Ukraine needs to strengthen and accelerate the construction of fortifications in several main directions, including Avdievsky, in order to deter the enemy and prevent him from advancing further. According to ex-commander Aidar, these fortifications should have been built long before a full-scale invasion, at least six months before the start of the big war. Then, perhaps, it would have been possible to contain the enemy in some sectors of the front. However, now it won’t hurt either.
“I understand perfectly well why they weren’t built last year.” There were illusions about rapid advance, a relatively quick breakthrough of the enemy front. So what is the point of building a fortification if we are about to take out the orcs, and then we will dig in along the 1991 border. But it was an illusion, and therefore what is being done now is absolutely logical,” says Dikiy.
Ukraine-NATO Council and F-16
This week also saw the first meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council. Secretary General of the Military Bloc Jens Stoltenberg spoke about the opening of a training center for F-16 pilots in Romania. Meanwhile, in his latest essay, Modern Trench Warfare and How to Win It, Valery Zaluzhny does not even mention the F-16 fighters.
According to military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan , F-16 aircraft are only part of the weapons Ukraine needs to be able to turn the tide of the war.
– What makes the F-16 a flying fortress is its weapons. That's the flying launcher it can carry, plus the early warning, radar guidance and tracking system that would also be carried by the F-16. It is integrated into the overall system of air defense and missions on the battlefield. These include AWACS long-range radar detection and tracking aircraft, and ground-based systems with long-range radars. That is, it is a whole system. Therefore, it is important to discuss the transfer of the entire complex with our partners. “Everything will depend on how the F-16 will be transferred to us, as a complex or as a “flying wing,” he said.
Execution of Ukrainian soldiers
On Sunday, December 3, the head of the Avdiivka city military administration, Vitaly Barabash, announced that the Russian military, who executed two Ukrainian defenders when they surrendered, had been liquidated.
The Russian military has no concept of the rules of conducting a fair war. They have one task – the destruction of the Ukrainian people by all means, notes expert Roman Svitan.
– This is terrorism in its purest form. The entire Russian army is a terrorist organization that should have been officially recognized a long time ago, and the Russian Empire as a state sponsor of terrorism. We know very well how the Russian military treats prisoners of war and the ordinary Ukrainian people. This is genocide and they carry it out as best they can,” he added.
Missile shortages and Shahed attacks
Due to sanctions and a shortage of spare parts, Russia can no longer produce a large number of missiles, so the occupiers are increasingly using attack drones during air attacks. However, there is no need to relax, because the fact that the Kremlin is saving missiles suggests that the Russians are preparing to launch a massive missile strike, perhaps this will happen during the New Year holidays, says military officer Yevgeny Dikiy.
– The Russians are actually in short supply of missiles. Now they produce about 30 missiles a month, all types together. Of these, ballistic missiles, which are more difficult to intercept, amount to less than 10 per month. It turns out that they produce one missile strike per month, so it seems that they are still accumulating missiles so that they can deliver several massive strikes in a row, not once a month, with a difference of, say, a week. But to do this they need to collect them,” he says.
However, according to Dikiy, the Russians were able to establish the production of drones. The occupiers have set up a secret factory in Alabukh, which is producing attack drones under an Iranian license.
There is another difficult winter ahead and the occupiers will do everything possible to add trouble to us Ukrainians.
Due to difficult weather conditions, combat operations on the contact lines may slow down, however, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have time to prepare for the spring counter-offensive.
