Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has arrived in Beijing and analysts suggest that Belarus may become a kind of pad for China's arms supplies to Russia. However, Washington once again warned Xi Jinping that such a move would hit China's image hard.
Another part of the analysts see Lukashenka's visit to China as an attempt by the Belarusian dictator to weaken the influence of the Kremlin on his regime. Channel 24 journalist Aleksey Pechiy analyzed what Lukashenka's visit to Beijing is really connected with.
China does not want to let Russia lose the war devastatingly
The plane of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko landed in Beijing on February 28. The dictator's visit to China will last until March 2. He has a series of meetings scheduled with Chinese officials and senior Chinese corporations.
In addition, Lukashenka and Xi Jinping should hold talks in a narrow and expanded format. Preliminarily, after their completion, “a large package of documents on the development of relations in key areas” will be signed.
Such a visit by the dictator to Beijing is quite worrisome, given the American warning that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia, such as attack drones, artillery and ammunition.
China allegedly seeks to do all this in order to help Russia thwart the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the spring . And here we can assume that China simply does not want to allow Russia to lose this war devastatingly . And to be more precise, China is not interested in Russia losing, let's say, on Ukraine's terms with the support of the United States.
For then it will endanger China itself, which professes such Kremlin rhetoric. In particular, in support of this thesis, there is a “peace plan” of China, requiring the lifting of sanctions against Russia, a ceasefire and negotiations without a preliminary withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
China stands for the end of the war, but on terms that will differ from Ukrainian and Western ones. This will give China influence bonuses in geopolitics. So, there are already suggestions that Belarus will simply become a hub for the transfer of weapons in order to avoid the Western sanctions that the US is already warning about.
The US State Department said that the fact that China agreed to accept the visit of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is evidence that Beijing is trying to increase its interaction with Russia. After all, Lukashenka cannot present himself as a player separate from the Kremlin. This was stated by the representative of the US State Department, Ned Price.
Lukashenka hinted at what weapons Russia can get from China
On the eve of his departure to China, Lukashenka has already managed to boast that, allegedly, despite the sanctions, Belarus, together with Russia, produces various types of weapons and sells them to 57 countries. He assured that everything he needs for the production of weapons, he receives from Russia.
And, they say, there are so many of those weapons that he can afford to export them to 57 countries. He also added that Belarus is successfully developing modern weapons, such as rockets and large-caliber artillery ammunition .
And after such an announcement, there are already fears that this is exactly what China will supply to Belarus , and Lukashenka will pass it off as his own.
Although, on the other hand, after the explosion at the Machulishchi airfield, Lukashenka demanded increased security inside Belarus and looked frankly confused. That is why he issued another nonsense that Ukraine should finally sit down at the negotiating table with Moscow, which “has not started anything yet.”
Washington warned Beijing
Washington has frankly warned Beijing that Chinese aid to Russia in the form of any lethal weapon could have tragic consequences that would raise questions from other countries in relation to Beijing's policy.
That is, US State Department spokesman Ned Price directly stated that such assistance would be, and I quote, “a very clear signal to countries around the world about the falsity of China's claims that it does not take any side in this war.”
Price notes that other countries are already asking why China supports Russia in other ways, including economic, diplomatic, political assistance, and also supports Moscow with its rhetoric.
In particular, this also applies to the EU countries, with which China seeks to get closer. Indeed, EU officials are planning to visit Beijing in the coming weeks.
Later, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reaffirmed the Joe Biden administration's concerns that China was considering providing deadly aid to Russia and warned that Beijing would face the consequences of such a move.
China's economy is already suffering
And what is important – China's intentions to help Russia alone are already dealing a blow to the economy of the Celestial Empire . Apple's AirPods maker said today that Apple's suppliers are trying to leave China to prevent the fallout from escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Companies are currently exploring countries outside of China. For example, a headphone maker is already investing the first $280 million in a new plant in Vietnam, and is considering expanding to India. Moreover, Washington only welcomes such steps, but it seems that this is only the beginning.
Such an outflow of capital would have far – reaching consequences for China . This means that there is still a chance that Lukashenka is really just trying to expand cooperation with China in order to limit the influence of the Kremlin on his power . The survival of the Lukashenka regime is 100% dependent on Putin. While until 2020, Lukashenka managed to maneuver between Russia and Europe.
The Kremlin is losing partners
However, the Kremlin is probably now also concerned about the fact that Russia's old partners are increasingly moving out of its orbit. For example, the day before , the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia visited Kiev .
Moreover, this was the first visit of such a level since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, that is, since 1993.
In particular, Riyadh allocated a $400 million humanitarian aid package, and also stated that it was ready to conduct a dialogue on the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. And this was a blow to the Kremlin , which believed that Saudi Arabia would not support Ukraine.
But such a visit by a Saudi minister also has a broader geopolitical context. Today, White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby said the United States considers it a positive step that a Saudi Arabian ministerial delegation has visited Kyiv.
He said Washington hopes to see more support from Arab countries in the coming months.
But perhaps the biggest blow today to the Kremlin's self-confidence was inflicted by Kazakhstan , which until recently was threatened by the Russians, assuring that it was next after Ukraine.
Kazakh President Kasim-Jomart Tokayev met US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at his residence on February 28 and thanked the US for supporting Kazakhstan's sovereignty.
