A real threat or a big bummer: can China's multimillion-strong army know how to fight?

The Chinese army is large, but is it capable of fighting / Illustrative collage 24 Channel

China does not hide its intentions to attack Taiwan. And they are actively preparing for this possible step. And not only in Beijing, but also in Washington and Taipei. The military trains every day, because the tension only grows.

At the same time, the question arises: will the Chinese army be able to do what Xi Jinping wants? Observers who took up the analysis of the People's Liberation Army of China tried to answer this question. Or rather, its capabilities and power.

What are the power of China's troops?

In terms of manpower, the Chinese army numbers 2.1 million troops. The number of ships and aircraft is impressive, which puts Beijing in a leading position in the world in terms of these indicators. The Pentagon believes that China has more than 400 ships and 3,100 aircraft. And this makes it the world's largest navy and the world's third largest air force.

In 2021 , the nuclear arsenal exceeded 400 warheads. And by 2035, according to experts, it should reach 1,500. True, at that time both the United States and Russia should deploy the same amount.

And China may or may not use all its might in an attempt to take over Taiwan. At least since meeting with Biden on November 15, Xi Jinping's government has said that Taiwan's unification with China “cannot be stopped.” This means that Beijing is not going to deviate from its goal.

Numerical but not efficient

Journalists interviewed dozens of current and former American and Chinese officials. They came to an interesting conclusion that points to Beijing's main weakness. And it is connected with the fact that doubt arises about the ability to transform rapid progress in military technology into effective combat operations. Especially if it is necessary to support those same military operations.

John Culver, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who spent 35 years as a CIA analyst specializing in the Chinese military, described them.

They have a high mortality rate, which is difficult to deny. From what we can see, the Chinese military is a weak point. (However – Channel 24), judging by China’s own assessments, they believe that they have made progress, but they are not where they would like to be,” he stated.

Xi himself criticizes his own army

As paradoxical as it may sound, concerns about a country's armed forces start at the very top. Yes, Xi Jinping is the most ardent critic of the People's Liberation Army of China (hereinafter referred to as the PLA).

He promised to build a “world-class” army by 2049. Consequently, he purged senior officers, ordered the military to get out of commercial business, and reduced the number of PLA ground forces. At the same time, he took on the development of new missile, cyber and space capabilities and created a new unified command structure.

But there is one “but”. His repeated instructions to the Chinese military to “prepare to fight and win” are partly a tacit admission that Xi has a fear that they are unable to do so.

It is interesting that he criticized his army recently. For example, in July, in two weeks, he made three separate public calls to strengthen military control. Interestingly, they coincided with unrest in the Chinese missile forces. This is the unit that controls the ballistic missile stockpile and will be responsible for targeting US surface ships in a conflict over Taiwan if one arises.

After this, Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who was appointed to this post at the beginning of the year, mysteriously disappeared . Lee's resignation was finally announced at the end of October. He became China's defense minister, who served less time in that post.

No fresh real military experience

It should be understood that the PLA has not seen major combat since Beijing's short and painful war against Vietnam in 1979. This means that almost all Chinese generals have no combat experience. Exceptions include 73-year-old Zhnazh Yuxia, deputy head of the Central Military Commission. He was sent to the front more than 40 years ago.

Meanwhile , Xi and his generals call China's lack of experience “the disease of the world.” The official PLA Daily newspaper wrote about it last year, citing repeated statements by Xi Jinping. They say that in a “long-term peaceful environment” officers and soldiers are prone to “diseases of the world.”

“China has no experience of war, they (the military – Channel 24) need to be checked before committing something like a full-scale invasion of Taiwan,” stated Li Xiaobing, director of the Western Pacific Institute at the University of Central Oklahoma, who previously served in the PLA .

Strict verticality and belated decisions

It should be understood that the PLA is not technically a military force. It is rather the armed wing of the Communist Party. Therefore, the PLA is very much top-down. This means that the ability of its commanders to make quick decisions on the ground is at risk. Actually on the battlefield, when conditions change.

Of course, the PLA doctrine was adjusted so that the military could take more initiative during operations. However, the process is slow and imperfect.

An expert on PLA issues at the US Institute of Peace and co-author of China's Quest for Security said China is more focused on “control” than “command.” The consequences can be debilitating, he said.

This obsession with control means they are not nimble or flexible. If the situation on the battlefield changes, an order you received a few days ago can be catastrophically difficult,” Scobell said.

At the same time, the United States does not underestimate the enemy. Intelligence and Pentagon leaders believe Xi aims to have his military capable of capturing Taiwan before 2027. At the same time, China's doubts may reduce the likelihood of such a conflict. After all, failure or victory at too high a cost could mean the fall of the Communist Party. At the same time, Beijing will strive to avoid the Ukrainian scenario. Be that as it may, the PLA will come to the battle with Taiwan with many advantages, but not all that matter, Bloomberg writes.