An informal meeting of EU defense ministers, High Representative of the European Union Josep Borrell and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will take place in Stockholm on March 7-8. A representative of Ukraine will also take part in the discussion. The key issue will be financing the purchase of artillery ammunition for the Ukrainian army.
In addition, the ministers will consider the training of the Ukrainian armed forces by the EU Assistance Mission to Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine). Mission commanders are expected to provide an update on the status of this session. A Channel 24 correspondent in Brussels found out what exactly European officials could agree on at this meeting.
Ukraine has discovered “weaknesses” in the defense of the EU
European countries were not ready for a protracted struggle between Russia and Ukraine. Despite the disappointing forecasts of the Western media, a year after the full-scale invasion, Kyiv is still standing, and Ukraine continues to fight for its independence. However, intense fighting is depleting the stocks of ammunition and weapons of the Western states. As early as September 2022, American and European partners expressed concern about the depletion of most military stocks.
This problem is due to the fact that Ukrainian soldiers in two weeks use the same number of shells that the US industry produced troops in a year. The lack of ammunition showed that in peacetime the military-industrial complex of the Western states did not work at full capacity, and the governments cut back on expensive production, releasing weapons as needed.
Francisco Casalduero, Project Manager for the Defense Development Program at the European Commission's Directorate-General for Defense Industry and Space, acknowledged that the EU has invested little in defense in recent years. That is why European defense is at the forefront of the agenda at the European Commission. Despite the lack of ammunition, the partners emphasize that they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. This also applies to military aid.
In addition to sending new weapons, it is necessary to ensure the operability of those already transferred to Ukraine, in particular, 155 mm artillery. On the eve of the historic meeting of Kuleba, Borrell and Stoltenberg, EU High Representative Josep Borrell said that the urgent issue is the transfer of ammunition to Ukraine. He stressed that Russia fires up to 50,000 shots daily and Ukraine should be at the same level. In addition, now on the battlefield, time is measured not in months, but in weeks. Therefore, the EU countries faced a new task – not only to ensure the dispatch of shells, but also to start the work of the military-industrial complex as quickly as possible.
According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov asked the European Union to send 250,000 ammunition to the Ukrainian army every month. The media reports that now the Ukrainian military is forced to use five times less shells due to limited supplies from Western allies. At present, artillery is very important in eliminating the military power of the Russians.
“If we were not limited by the number of artillery shells, we could use the full load of ammunition, which is 594,000 shells per month,” Reznikov wrote in a letter.
The Financial Times writes that EU Industrial Commissioner Tommy Burton believes that the European defense industry should move to a wartime economic model. To do this, Burton is putting pressure on banks that are boycotting more lending to arms companies.
Along with the European states, the North Atlantic Alliance is also increasing production. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the problem of the rapid use of ammunition was discovered a long time ago, so there are already first signed production agreements with the United States, France and Norway. However, Stoltenberg believes that the countries of the Alliance should speed up and increase production.
How the EU plans to provide Ukraine with ammunition and increase the capacity of the military industry
The first impetus for the creation of a special plan was provided by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who proposed a scheme for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine similar to the EU vaccine purchase system. In particular, she suggested that the EU countries transfer the money, and the European Commission would buy weapons and send them to Ukraine.
In an interview with Channel 24, Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur said that the transfer of ammunition will be one of the key issues during the meeting of defense ministers in Stockholm. According to Pevkur, it is possible to provide such a number of shells from our own stocks, after fulfilling the signed contracts and organizing new purchases.
The Estonian initiative was supported by the EU High Representative Josep Borrell. He urged partners to act immediately and speed up the supply of ammunition. This issue was discussed during the meeting of the EU Council of Ministers for Foreign Affairs. The foreign ministers discussed ways to accelerate the provision of shells, and Borrell will present some proposals at a meeting of defense ministers in Stockholm. On the eve of this meeting, Borrell sent letters to the heads of the EU Ministry of Defense with a request to send ammunition from warehouses as soon as possible and to give Ukraine a priority place in already approved contracts.
Euractiv reports that a document presented to EU ambassadors proposes a three-pronged plan to eliminate the shortage and increase the production of shells in Europe. According to media reports, EU defense ministers will consider this plan in Stockholm. The first step could be the allocation of 1 billion euros from the European Peace Fund to force countries to send shells from their stockpiles. The second step of the plan involves coordinating the joint purchase of 155-mm ammunition by the bloc's defense department in order to sign the first contracts as early as next month “for a period of seven years.”
Such an order will be aimed at making up for the shortage of national reserves and the ability to send shells to Ukraine in the future. The European Defense Agency, together with member countries, will use a new scheme “covering seven categories from small arms up to 155mm”. The Agency will consolidate requests from Member States for resupply and expedite the procedure for direct negotiations with industrial ammunition suppliers in the EU.
When asked by Channel 24 about the details of the joint procurement of ammunition, the European Defense Agency did not answer. They noted that they could not provide details before a decision was made at the political level.
The third step is aimed at expanding the large-scale production of ammunition in Europe and strengthening the work of the military-industrial complex. The document proposes to create a special fund for the joint purchase of weapons, provided that the bloc countries agree to allocate money for this. However, the plan lacks information on how purchases will be paid, how long production will take, and when the shells can be delivered to Ukraine.
Sources of the Financial Times also claim that the leadership of the EU countries agreed on a plan to quickly provide the Ukrainian army with artillery shells. All EU members, except Denmark, have joined this project. The media write that Ukraine will be able to receive shells within a few weeks. Journalists report that a billion euros will be allocated for this from the European Peace Fund, which finances the purchase of weapons, as was proposed in the first stage of the sent plan.
In a comment to Channel 24, the head of the subcommittee on security and defense of the European Parliament, Natalie Loizeau, said that EU member states would continue to provide military support to Ukraine.
“The EU is committed to continuing to provide strong support to Ukraine for as long as it takes. This means that we must encourage the defense industry to accelerate and increase production, especially when it comes to ammunition. Several initiatives are now being implemented: at the national level, through bilateral agreements, and also through a special part of the European Peace Fund,” she said.
In addition, she said, the EU is working to encourage European states to use joint procurement mechanisms to provide better prices and clearer incentives for the defense industry to increase production.
Note that the European Peace Fund is an extrabudgetary instrument created in March 2021 to strengthen the EU's ability to prevent conflicts, develop peace and strengthen international security. Currently, part of the funds from this instrument is used to reimburse the costs of military assistance and operational support that each capital promises to Ukraine. It should be noted that during the year of a full-scale war, the EU member countries provided the Fund with 3.6 billion euros.
Finally, there is hope for a “political consensus” before the defense ministers' meeting. However, the question of how to pay for joint purchases remains a matter of debate.
Although Josep Borrell called for the ammunition to be provided as soon as possible three weeks ago, the official approval of the plan for the procurement, manufacture and provision of shells is expected during a meeting of EU foreign ministers on March 20 in Brussels. At the same time, the leaders of the European Union can sign the final plan during the summit on March 23-24.
