5 scenarios for Russia after Putin’s re-election: the oppositionist said what could actually happen

The so-called presidential elections in Russia, but their “winner” is already known to everyone. The Politico publication undertook to predict 5 options for how political events in Russia could unfold under Vladimir Putin’s new presidential term.

Russian oppositionist, political analyst Olga Kurnosova commented on the 24 Kanal probability of each of the 5 scenarios. She also predicted the most likely plan for Putin's future rule.

Scenario No. 1: flourishing of democracy

Probability of implementation – 5 – 10%. This option is based on the possible “flourishing of democracy” in Russia. As noted in the publication, the anti-communist and anti-colonial revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe demonstrated that totalitarian structures can be based on “shifting sands” and quickly disintegrate when they are opposed by democratic movements.

“If these democratic movements rely on the “Freedom of Russia” legion and the RDK, and they further increase through our common efforts, then the probability of this scenario being realized is up to 35%,” noted the Russian oppositionist.

Scenario No. 2: the collapse of Russia

Probability of implementation – 10 – 15 %. According to this forecast, Russia could collapse due to the war in Ukraine, which is depleting the country's economy. As a result, Russians will come out in large numbers to protest against the authorities. This could lead to anarchy, territorial fragmentation of Russia and violence.

Such a scenario is possible, and the West fears it most of all, because anarchy in a country with nuclear weapons does not suit anyone. At the same time, it is necessary to explain to everyone that even the collapse of Russia or its fragmentation into several countries may not be chaotic or anarchic, but carried out according to certain rules,” Kurnosova noted.

It is very important, in her opinion, that the transition period allows the territories that want to exist separately to begin an independent life. This requires a civilized break.

Scenario No. 3: activation of nationalists

Probability of implementation – 15 – 20%. Such a plan was considered incredible a year ago, but Yevgeny Prigozhin managed to organize a march on Moscow. He did not get there because of a lack of opportunity – on the contrary, the path was open. The consequence of Prigozhin's rebellion was that he made Putin look like a tsar without clothes.

Therefore, the likely scenario is that one of the Russian nationalists will manage to reach Moscow. As Politico notes, “the flame of nationalism that Putin is stoking” is unlikely to go out anytime soon.

In fact, there are not that many Russian nationalists, so this threat is exaggerated. It is precisely the war that Putin unleashed that is being used by the regime to “utilize” the most passionate strata of Russian society. Because of this, the brightest nationalists are dying in this war,” she emphasized.

At the same time, nationalists who oppose the war are either persecuted by the authorities or have left Russia , or are silent. There are different nationalists, the political analyst emphasized, the same Russian Volunteer Corps are also nationalists, and if they reach Moscow, it will even be very good.

Scenario No. 4: technocratic reboot

Probability of implementation – 20 – 25%. The economic consequences of sanctions against Russia and large losses in the war will have an impact. Putin's inner circle may offer to retire.

Today, there is no inner circle around Putin due to the fact that there is no unity among the security forces. In order for such a scenario to become possible, it is necessary for the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense to unite and tell Putin that the time has come for him to retire for a “well-deserved rest.” However, now this has a small chance of implementation, Kurnosova is sure.

Scenario No. 5: Putin will remain in power until 2023

Probability of implementation – 40 – 50%. After the death of Alexei Navalny, the democratic movement in Russia fell into decline. The Russian economy, despite the sanctions, has not collapsed and is holding on. Therefore, Putin has a chance to rule for another six years. However, he will face a lot of problems in these years due to the war, economic downturn and much more.

“This could be a short-term scenario. Putin is scheduled to be inaugurated on May 7, and in a couple of months he could be overthrown. If we talk about the most likely scenario, then it will be exactly like this,” noted Olga Kurnosova.

The so-called presidential elections continue in Russia: briefly

• The elections started on March 15 and should end on the 17th. During this time, a large number of cases were recorded when Russians spoiled ballots by pouring brilliant green and paint on them.
• Also, in some polling stations, explosions are heard and arson occurs, carried out by Russian citizens.
• On March 17 at 12.00, the “Afternoon without Putin” action of the Russian opposition is to take place. Those who are dissatisfied with Putin’s power should come to the polling stations and express their protest. The action should demonstrate “the unity of the place and time of protest.”