Lukashenko drew a conclusion after the return of tens of thousands of Russian invaders home in bags/Getty Images
The news about the reopening of Belarusian equipment and this fact should be considered next to other news that spread primarily in the Russian press, but it was also partially picked up in Ukraine. Further – in an exclusive blog for the Channel 24 website.
Two regimes are trying to intimidate the inflexible
The fact that the Kremlin allegedly started talking about the resumption of the offensive against Ukraine, Kyiv, to the northern regions.
And understanding how Russian propaganda works, how their narratives are built, I would put the fact of the reopening of Belarusian equipment and the continuation of their exercises in some regions (in five regions of Belarus) as two components of one system and one narrative.
That is, these are interconnected things that complement each other. And the purpose of these news and these facts is to inspire fear, to instill uncertainty, to carry out an informational special operation regarding the Ukrainian society, perhaps partially in relation to the Ukrainian authorities, the Ukrainian army, which, looking at these news and how things are these exercises are being carried out now, they should partially concentrate their efforts on the northern regions of Ukraine – on the territories bordering Belarus.
Therefore, these are two interconnected things. It must be understood that, first of all, they are aimed not at starting hostilities in the near future on the territory of the western, northern regions of Ukraine, but in order to disperse the efforts of the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian political elite and contribute to such an imbalance in Ukraine.< /p>
Donbas pique
One factor is also important: we see that now in the east of Ukraine the Russians are entering such a peak, they are entering the peak point of their “military operation”, as they call it, but in fact the war. We see that huge efforts have been concentrated on the direction of Lisichansk, Severodonetsk, probably all the efforts that they now have, in order to get at least some local, very tactical success in the direction of these settlements.
Therefore, it is clear that from a political technological point of view, it is very important for them now to finish off Ukraine with such statements, to finish off with such stuffing, to finish off with such measures, which they are unequivocally implementing through the hands of the puppet Lukashenka on the territory of Belarus. Therefore, in order to get at least some success, they must simply throw everything at the mouth of these events in order to get some kind of result.
Survival game for Lukashenka
In addition, you need to understand what role Belarus plays today in relation to Russia (and this is a completely dependent state absorbed by Russia in every sense of the word) and Lukashenka's court jester, who also understands his function in this whole game well.
< p> On the one hand, he must remain quite loyal to Putin, because Putin today is his only political “father” and political asylum, which can give him a chance to continue his absolutely illegitimate and illegal temporary domination in Belarus. And Lukashenka understands this very well – that you need to play, that you need to continue to fulfill the whims that are in the Kremlin.
But on the other hand, this is a man who has been sitting on two chairs at the same time for years and perfectly understands that the start of hostilities by the Belarusian army in the northern regions of Ukraine, in the northwestern regions of Ukraine will lead to a faster political and, possibly, physical death of Lukashenka himself.
Because having lost the remnants of the army that he now has in Belarus (this is a very small number of soldiers and officers: according to various estimates, this is about 14 thousand people of those people who can, plus or minus, conduct military operations and have some experience), having lost even this potential that he has now, Lukashenka will lead himself to the fact that he will be absolutely unprotected.
An attack is possible even from the same Putin, when he pleases, on the Lukashenka regime in order to overthrow him and install a more predictable, perhaps younger, conditionally democratic leader in order to create a facade of democracy for Europe. He can do it at any second, and Lukashenka understands this very well.
Therefore, he is now standing between two fires – on the one hand, the satisfaction of some whims of Putin, on the other, a matter of his own survival. Therefore, I very much doubt that Lukashenka will resort to such actions, that he will give the order for the offensive of the Belarusian troops to Volyn, Zhytomyr, Lvov. He will not do it.
Axiom of death for the occupiers
This is one point of contact. And the other part is that the same Lukashenko, like the military of Belarus, they have already seen the experience of the Russians and their participation in this war. And they see how the Russians are returning home – in black plastic bags and disassembled. Therefore, they are well aware that, having entered the territory of the Volyn or Zhytomyr region, the soldier will not return home.
The number of that territorial defense or citizens of Ukraine in general who are ready to defend their villages, their cities in their hands and with weapons, pitchforks, knives there are many times more of them than the combat-ready Belarusian army.
Therefore, for the Russian court jester Lukashenka is suicide. And I am convinced that he will not take this step, at least now. If both Lukashenka and Putin completely lose their minds, some such actions are possible. But I think that this will not bring radical changes on the battlefield – perhaps some local ones.
But as a result, we will return our territorial integrity, we will recapture the Kherson region, we will recapture the Luhansk region, the Donetsk region, the Kharkiv region. They definitely have no chance of success.
