By escalating tensions with the Houthis, Biden inadvertently strengthened the militant group's ability to disrupt international shipping.
There is a simple reason why US and UK military strikes against Yemen's Houthis will not achieve their goal of opening critical Red Sea routes to international shipping: the Houthis will not be sure to succeed in striking additional commercial shipping or even successfully responding to attacks by American warships.
All they have to do is try. This is enough to maintain a virtual shipping blockade of the Red Sea, through which a staggering 12% of global trade flows. Many Western commercial vessels simply will not risk moving their ships through these waters, not in spite of President Joe Biden's military strikes, but through them.
Time writes about this.
US strikes: what is their role
The irony is obvious: the richest country in the world is bombing one of the poorest. By escalating tensions with the Iran-backed Houthis, Biden inadvertently strengthened the militant group's ability to disrupt international shipping.
The Houthis managed to raise the cost of container shipping after the war between Israel and Hamas by launching rocket attacks on cargo ships passing through vital waterways. But the Biden administration's retaliatory strikes against Yemen's Houthis have shut down shipping lines, perhaps permanently until the war is over.
Since January 11, the Houthis have continued to fire missiles at ships almost every day. On January 14, a Houthi missile was shot down by the US Navy. It never hit its target, but it still served its purpose: keeping tensions high and scaring away Western ships heading to Israel.
But even the US ability to continue shooting down missiles is hardly guaranteed: on January 15, a Houthi missile hit an American container ship in the Gulf of Aden. Thus, the Houthis have already succeeded in crippling the Israeli economy, while ridiculing the efforts of Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to renew containment.
Regional war possible?
Biden can certainly up the ante and intensify strikes against Houthi weapons trains and missile launchers. But unless there is a significant degradation of the Houthis' military capabilities – a scenario that seems unlikely given their large arsenal of anti-ship missiles and an estimated 200,000 fighters – continued strikes will only lead to the same thing: an escalation of tensions that will strengthen the de facto blockade of the Houthis, the possibility of the conflict escalating into a full-fledged one regional war.
The Biden administration says it wants to prevent this from happening.
The Houthis have consistently publicly expressed their demands: an end to attacks on ships in the Red Sea in exchange for Israel stopping attacks on Palestinians in Gaza, which have killed at least 23,000 people, most of them women and children.
There is no guarantee that the Houthis would adhere to their commitments after the ceasefire. But when a temporary truce reigned in Gaza from November 24 to 30 last year, the number of confirmed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea dropped significantly, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
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Iraqi militias also completely stopped attacks on American troops during the truce. On the last day of the truce, the Houthis issued a statement reaffirming their “full readiness to resume military operations” when fighting resumes in Gaza.
Biden ignored this warning. In his last telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 23, 2023, the US President did not even raise the issue of a ceasefire. Earlier, he told reporters that there was “no possibility” of a ceasefire. And, of course, his administration vetoed numerous UN Security Council resolutions calling for a pause in hostilities.
However, a ceasefire would be much more likely to deter attacks by the Houthis and Iraqi militias; would reduce tension on the Israeli-Lebanese border, where regular exchanges of fire take place; would secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas; and, most importantly, would stop further civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip.
Instead, under the guise of restoring deterrence, Biden did the opposite.
If, in a worst-case scenario, Biden's escalation against the Houthis leads to a regional war, there should be no doubt that it will be another war of choice—and a war without congressional authorization . Not because Biden wants it, but because he refused to take the most obvious and peaceful way to prevent it.
Recall, it was previously reported that the Houthis mistakenly attacked a tanker with Russian oil in the Red Sea.
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