This is not Russia accepting any number of losses.
Russia's opening of a new front from Belarus is a fantastic development so far. Such a scenario is not likely while self-proclaimed leader Alexander Lukashenko is in power,
Victor Yagun, Major General of the SBU Reserve, Deputy Chairman of the SBU (2014-2015), noted this during the Espresso broadcast.
According to him, an offensive from the Belarusian side cannot be expected, because it is economically unprofitable for the leader of this country to enter into a war.
“As for the likelihood of Russia opening a new front from Belarus, this is fantasy; such a scenario is not probable. While Lukashenko is in power, an offensive from the Belarusian side cannot be expected. Not because Lukashenko is so “meek” to Ukraine, but because it is not economically profitable for him,” explained Yagun.
Lukashenko, according to the expert, understands that Belarus’ entry into the war will entail huge security losses.
“He can deploy no more than 50 thousand troops, and another 50 thousand of some security forces, who may be in the second or third echelon. And 100 thousand is nothing, this is the possibility of capturing one inhabited point or one district,” Yagun explained.
Also, from the Ukrainian side, if Belarus enters the war, it will be possible to hit Belarusian oil refineries. This is also the possibility of our Belarusian comrades in arms entering the territory of Belarus to start a guerrilla war in the rear there.
Moreover, the citizens of the country will rebel against such a decision.
“There will be a destabilization of the situation in Belarus itself when the coffins go there. This is not Russia, which accepts any number of losses. Belarus is mentally closer to Ukraine. And Belarusians will ask: why are we fighting with Ukraine and why do we need these coffins in our villages” ?Lukashenko understands all this well, so he will delay it until the end,” Yagun explained.
Lukashenko, against the backdrop of all attempts to persuade him to participate in the war, allowed a recruitment campaign on the territory of Belarus into the armed forces of the Russian Federation for former military personnel who served in law enforcement agencies or the army.
“Recruiting is actually open, but this is the only thing he agreed to. Everything else is fantasy. There are no strengths, no means, no opportunities,” added Victor Yagun.
Meanwhile, in Belarus they are preparing for the transition to “war time”. TSN.ua has already reported what is happening near the border with Ukraine.
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