Tesla has by far the most successful year behind it. However, 2021 could be a fateful year.
If you go by the share price, Tesla was one of the most successful companies in the world in 2020. The stock exchange price and thus also the company value have risen by an incredible 700 percent since the beginning of the year. Since last week, Tesla has also been included in the S&P 500 and even the S&P 100, which includes the 500 and 100 largest listed US companies, respectively. Only Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Facebook are worth more.
500,000 cars vs. 10 million
The view of the current financial year is less euphoric than the price would suggest. Tesla surprised in October with the best quarter in its history. The goal of selling at least 500,000 cars by the end of the year could be tight. If it succeeds, that would be an increase of 35 percent compared to the previous year. To put it into perspective: Large car companies like VW or Toyota sell over 10 million vehicles a year.
“The inclusion in the S&P share index is of course an accolade and further confirmation that Tesla is now one of the established ones. The fact that Tesla has ousted an oil company from the index with Occidental Petroleum in the S&P 100 is a remarkable sign of the times, ”explains Monika Rosen, chief analyst at Bank Austria, in an interview with futurezone.
Ventilator instead of a new car
On the developer side, however, things remained pretty quiet in the crisis year. Little heard of the Cybertruck announced in 2019. Except for a few software updates and an update of the Model 3, Elon Musk's (Twitter) escapades about Corona, the dispute over a Tesla ventilator and the discussion about the name of Musk's child were remembered.
And sales and profits do not provide a good foundation for the share price explosion either. Because in terms of profitability, Tesla is miles away from similarly highly rated tech giants such as Apple. While the iPhone manufacturer made a profit of $ 12.67 billion in the last quarter alone, Elon Musk's company came to a measly $ 451 million for the whole of 2020 so far.
With new locations such as the controversial Gigafactory in Berlin, Tesla could significantly increase production capacities – both for vehicles and batteries – in the coming years. Whether Tesla can actually meet the enormous expectations and whether the charismatic but often impulsive and erratic Elon Musk is the right one to develop the company from a challenger to an established mass producer remains questionable.
Is Elon Musk the right one?
“With such transitions, the question is always: Is the founder the right one to be able to optimally lead a large corporation? Because that usually requires different human characteristics than in the early days or when it comes to building up the company, “says Rosen.
The coronavirus panic is dumb
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 6, 2020
Asymco analyst Horace Dediu is also split: “A lot at Tesla revolves around Elon Musk. The fact that electromobility is so closely associated with the brand is in large part also thanks to it. To make everything dependent on him, however, is a risky undertaking. “
“Not a real disruption”
Another comparison shows how exorbitantly Tesla is valued on the stock market. Most recently, the company was worth more than Toyota, VW, General Motors, Ford, Fiat, Nissan and Daimler combined. “I understand the business approach and strategy, and I've always believed that Tesla will do a great job. However, the stock exchange has very explicitly priced in that the company should be much more than just a car company, ”says Dediu about futurezone.
And he doesn't really see this claim at the moment. “I cannot see any real disruption in the sense that Tesla is redefining the topic of mobility with new products, services and jobs. They sell cars, essentially that's it. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but I find this limitless optimism in the stock market about Tesla a little illogical, ”explains Dediu.
Tesla against the rest of the world
Whether the share party will continue unchecked next year will be shown at the latest after the publication of the last quarter of the year. There are many indications that 2021 could be a fateful year for Tesla. Because while all established car manufacturers are throwing everything into battle to get their electric vehicles into the market, Tesla has to deliver – be it for the capacities of the Model Y, but also for the planned cybertruck. Failure to do this could also have serious consequences on the stock market.
The same naturally applies to all other car manufacturers, who will probably no longer be able to talk about production delays due to the Corona crisis in the coming year. In addition, they do not have a leader who has the same magical appeal to the following and the media public as Elon Musk has for years.
“The Magic of Steve Job”
But this undisputed ability can also have its downsides, according to analyst Dediu. “Apple is a good example of this. With Tim Cook some of the magic that Steve Jobs embodied was lost. On the stock market, however, Apple benefited from it. Because magic is fascinating, but also unpredictable. It creates a certain amount of uncertainty because you never know what will come next and whether the success can be repeated with an unexpected product, ”explains Dediu.
It could be particularly exciting in the industry if the recently resurfaced rumors about a planned Apple car with revolutionary battery technology come true. So far, despite some efforts, the group has struggled with its own vehicle. Electronics manufacturer Dyson also withdrew surprisingly despite the finished prototype. Should Apple actually get involved, it must first make up for many years of Tesla's lead.
