Vienna. The performance of the domestic benchmark index leaves something to be desired this year, let's put it that way. Since the beginning of January the ATX minus has been around 19 percent. The Vienna Stock Exchange is not alone in its fate, but there are indices that have fared better. Even in Europe. This includes, for example, the Frankfurt DAX. Its price index (i.e. the index without dividends) is also in the red at around 2.5 percent. But not that strong. In times like these you have to bake smaller rolls as is well known.
But for a few weeks now, the ATX has been experiencing something of a resurrection. Its performance since September has been a remarkable 16 percent, the plus since November is even more impressive at around 26 percent.
But what are the reasons for this? Well, companies like the fiber manufacturer Lenzing, the caterer Do & Co, the steel group Voest, the plant manufacturer Andritz or OMV were hit particularly hard by the corona crisis. In times of economic uncertainty, nobody wants to have cyclical values, i.e. those that move in harmony with the business cycle. And there are an enormous number of these in the ATX.
Vaccine drives courses
In the past few weeks, however, something like hope has blossomed in the financial markets. Reports of breakthroughs in corona vaccine development made investors cheer. Because once the drug has been distributed, its administration can begin. And then nothing stands in the way of an almost normal life. Ideally, the economic recovery will then also return. What those companies that were punished particularly hard on the stock exchange this year are now the most pleased. “Those who lost the most in the first half of the year now have the greatest upside potential,” says Erste Group analyst Christoph Schultes. The notion that everything will turn out for the best is anticipated in the courses.
Which is why, for example, Do & Co's paper has risen by 70 percent since the beginning of November. The oil stocks OMV and Schoeller-Bleckmann also increased by over 50 and around 40 percent respectively. The prospect of an upturn has recently also caused oil prices to climb (in the hope of increased demand). Even bank stocks went through the roof. A picture that is rarely seen. There are essentially three earnings drivers at banks. The interest business, the commission business and the risk costs. The latter rise in the downturn because then not only unemployment rises, but also loan defaults. If the economy develops positively, the banks are spared a negative scenario and they have to set up lower provisions.
The fact that the results of many companies in the past few months were anything but sparkling no longer matters. “What was in the past is eaten,” says Schultes. The business year is not yet over for the companies. “The fourth quarter will be difficult for many,” the analyst believes. The figures for the current calendar year are usually not published until March.
However, Schultes is optimistic about the remaining trading weeks this year. For December he expects a positive performance in the ATX. “And then there should be the first approvals for corona vaccines.” So the positive news flow shouldn't stop so quickly.
