Probability of an offensive from Belarus to Western Ukraine is low. After all, Russia cannot cut off the supply of equipment to Ukraine from the West.
Relevant information was reported on October 21 at the American Institute for the Study of War. They reacted to the data about the growing threat of a new offensive from Belarus.
ISW explained the issue of an offensive from Belarus
The risk of a new offensive from the territory of Belarus remains low, despite the statement by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) Oleksiy Gromov about the growth of such a risk, the ISW said.
The Institute for the Study of War also warned that:
- an attack from Belarus remains unlikely in the coming months;
- given that Russian forces do not have the ability to cut off Ukrainian supply routes from the West through a ground offensive.
“The nearest Ukrainian east-west railway line is 30 kilometers from the Belarusian border, and the Pripyat marshes are extremely complicate the conduct of maneuver warfare across the international border in the Volyn and Rivne regions,” the Institute for the Study of War said.
According to them, Ukraine's roads and railways have enough junctions with Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary so that a Russian attack from Belarus could not seriously impair Ukrainian logistics lines without penetrating deep into Ukraine.
That's right.
That's right. the Russians did when they fought for Kyiv in the winter. However, analysts noted that at that time the Russian army was stronger, but now it is significantly weakened.
Briefly about the likely offensive from Belarus
- On October 20, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Aleksey Gromov warned that the threat of a renewal of the offensive on the northern front by the Russian Armed Forces is growing.
- According to him, the direction of the offensive may be changed to the west of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. In particular, in order to cut off the logistics of deliveries of weapons and equipment to Ukraine from partner countries.
- British intelligence reported that a new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is unlikely. According to them, Russia is unlikely to be able to assemble ready-to-fight formations in such numbers, because its forces are already deployed in Ukraine.
