Find out who sociologists and experts predict will win.
America's next presidential election year is finally here, which can only mean one thing: Speculation will continue as to who will be the next person to occupy the White House.
President Joe Biden is set to win the Democratic nomination for nearly a second time, but he entered the campaign trail facing a long list of competitors. This “pack” is decisively led by former President Donald Trump, but two other serious GOP contenders are seeking to usurp the former president's leadership. Several independent candidates are also running in the race.
With the election just 10 months away, pollsters and political scientists are fueling debate over who will win the 270 popular votes needed to fill the Oval Office.
So who, according to experts, will become the next President of the United States? TSN.ua offers you an adaptation of The Week's material to find out the answer.
Who, according to polls, will win the elections?
Biden and Trump remain the two unchanging leaders of their parties – and for the most part they go toe-to-toe. In actual numbers, however, a Jan. 2 Morning Consult poll of 6,816 voters showed Trump leading Biden by 42% to 41%.
The same gap was shown in a YouGov/CBS News poll conducted on January 12 among 1,906 voters, according to which Trump leads Biden by a margin of 50% to 48%. A pair of Suffolk University/USA Today polls of 1,000 voters released Dec. 26 also showed Trump leading by 37% to 34% and 44% to 43%, respectively.
So, based only on the polls themselves, which have a margin of error of less than 4%, it appears that pollsters are predicting Donald Trump will return to the White House in 2024, and his landslide victory in the Iowa GOP caucuses suggests that he is path to becoming the Republican Party candidate.
However, the aforementioned neck-and-neck aspect of the race means the polls could change. Several other recent polls have found Biden running neck and neck with the former president, including many from the same outlets that have published other polls where Trump led.
A Dec. 26 Morning Consult poll of 4,000 voters showed Biden and Trump each with 42% of the vote. This matches YouGov/Economist polls conducted on January 2 and 9, which showed them tied at 44% and 43% respectively. And while most recent polls have put Biden either behind Trump or tied with him, a Dec. 23 Morning Consult poll of 4,000 voters showed Biden leading Trump by 43% to 42%, as did a Morning Consult poll , conducted on January 7 among 6367 voters.
Of the last seven polls conducted by FiveThirtyEight, Trump is either ahead or tied with Biden in each of them. Trump's biggest lead was a Jan. 3 ActiVote poll that showed him leading Biden 54% to 46%. However, unlike the above-mentioned surveys, which were calculated over several days, this survey was conducted over three months from October to January. It also had a smaller sample size of only 841 voters.
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Who, according to experts, will win the elections?
While polls may tell one story, political analysts, pundits and commentators tell another. Many students of politics believe that even though Trump currently leads in most polls, it will be Biden who will win a second term as president.
Biden “is seen as a moderate figure who has not transformed a politically polarized country,” Fox News' Juan Williams opined on The Hill, and that “contributed to his low approval numbers in 2023.” But Williams said Biden's low numbers “will blow out out the door in a rematch with Trump in 2024, when he faces him one-on-one.”
“Democrats have the opportunity to turn this race into a referendum on Trump rather than Biden,” Williams said. “With a rising stock market, falling unemployment, rising wages, slowing inflation, and a strong U.S. position against Russia and China, Biden has a good chance of winning over undecided voters.”
Biden could also win reelection because “the strength of the president's record is matched only by the strength of his party,” Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg wrote for MSNBC. Rosenberg noted that Democrats “have won more votes in seven of the last eight presidential elections, something no party has done in modern American history,” and in both previous years “have averted a historic race to win the party in power and carried out two extremely successful elections “. He added that the polls “continue to unduly diminish Trump's historical baggage and MAGA's repeated electoral failures.”
Some, however, still believe Trump could return to the White House – exemplified by his landslide victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses, “a stunning show of strength after leaving Washington in disgrace,” wrote Stephen Collinson. CNN. His rise is especially remarkable because “losing one-term presidents almost never run successful primary campaigns,” Collinson added, let alone a complete victory—Trump won every county in Iowa except one, which he lost by only one vote.
Others still say neither of these men will occupy the White House next year. “Whether Biden can remain viable and survive until Election Day is a matter of speculation,” writes computer scientist and election forecaster Sheldon Adelson for The Hill. Democrats “will realize that the sooner they withdraw his nomination, the more time they will have to prepare a campaign to replace him,” Adelson added.
Trump, meanwhile, “can be pitted against one or two of the remaining candidates more easily, and voters will be clear about what they're getting with him — and what the risks are of him getting the nomination,” Adelson said.
The data suggests that “the likelihood of a Biden-Trump rematch is extremely unlikely, and that neither will win the White House,” Adelson concluded.
Who else is in the game?
Besides Biden and Trump, another candidate whose name seems to be gaining traction is Nikki Gailey. The former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations has been rising in the polls in recent weeks and has received key support from the Koch network. As a result, many are looking at him as a potential person to replace Trump as the Republican Party's nominee.
Gailey gets top marks for being seen as likeable and smart, and she's nearly tied with Trump in terms of preparedness, CBS News reports. The latter indicator is notable because Gailey is ahead of Trump in terms of preparedness, despite the fact that he has already been president once.
Although Gailey was ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in many polls, it was DeSantis who came in second in the Iowa caucuses, with 21.2% to Gailey's 19.1%. However, DeSantis suffered from a troubled campaign and low voter enthusiasm. Gailey “is still in a strong position to rise in New Hampshire and his home state,” The New York Times reports.
She could potentially upset Trump in New Hampshire due to his weakness among college-educated voters. However, the Times notes that both Gailey and DeSantis face an uphill battle trying to change the seemingly inevitable Trump-Biden rematch.
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