After the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and commander Dmitry Utkin, the Wagner PMC and mercenaries have an “uncertain status.”
PMC “Wagner” may again pose a serious threat to the Ukrainian military if it consolidates with a single leader and becomes subordinate to the Russian Guard or the Russian Ministry of Defense. Among the potential leaders is the son of Evgeniy Prigozhin – Pavel.
This is stated in the report of analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“The status of Wagner remains unclear, with mercenaries scattered across several different countries,” the report notes.
However, on September 29, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin met with former Wagner commander and current Russian Defense Ministry official Andrei Troshev and stated that he would be involved in the formation of new volunteer detachments performing combat missions primarily in Ukraine.
Some representatives of Wagner reacted negatively to this information and began to say that Prigozhin’s place should be taken by his 25-year-old son Pavel. One of the channels reported that he was allegedly negotiating with the Russian Guard about the transfer of mercenaries under their command.
“A well-known source associated with Wagner said that the fighters will not have to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry and that” The Wagner Group “will retain its name, symbols, ideology, command, management and existing standard operating principles,” analysts write.
A Russian insider source said that Pavel Prigozhin is not an independent player, but is under the influence of the head of the Wagner Security Service, Mikhail Vatanin.
Another source claimed on September 30 that the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov, is considering the possibility of allowing elements of the group ” Wagner” to join the Russian Guard as a separate unit.
“The Ministry of Defense in any case would have to provide equipment and materials to large, restored forces subordinate to the Russian Guard, since the Russian Guard does not have the logistical infrastructure to do this on its own,” ISW noted.
Analysts reported , that, based on these data, they have revised their assessment and now believe that the Wagner could again potentially become a serious threat.
Recall:
AirplaneEvgeniy Prigozhina crashed in the Tver region of Russia on the evening of August 23, 2023. At the crash site they found a crashed plane with the tail number of a business jet, in which the owner of the Wagner PMC usually flew.
10 bodies were found at the scene of the plane crash. Later, Russian authorities assured that everyone had been identified. In particular, among the dead are Prigozhin, as well as the commander of the Wagner PMC Dmitry Utkin and other leaders of the Wagnerites.
In the first days after the plane crash, analysts put forward four versions of events. Among them is an air defense missile explosion or explosives on board. At the same time, they agreed that it was possible that the murder was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who did not forgive the mutiny in June 2023.
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