Sullivan: The United States will announce data on the “scenario of attack” of the Russian Federation on Ukraine in the next day
Photo: Jonathan Ernst / Reuters
National Security Adviser to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan announced Washington's plans in the next 24 hours to voice data on the scenario of an attack on Ukraine, which Russia is allegedly preparing. His words are quoted by RIA Novosti.
We saw this scenario in 2014. They are preparing it again. The administration will have additional details on what we see in terms of creating a pretext that we will share with the press over the next 24 hours.
Jake Sullivan National Security Adviser to the President
Attack scenario
According to Sullivan, it could be Moscow fabricating grounds to accuse Kiev of preparing an imminent attack on Russian forces in the East.
Our intelligence community is processing information that Russia is working to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, including sabotage and information operations, accusing Ukraine of preparing an attack on Russian forces in eastern Ukraine
Jake Sullivan National Security Adviser to the President
According to US intelligence, the threat of a Russian attack on Ukraine “remains high.” However, Sullivan clarified that the US intelligence community has not yet come to the conclusion that Moscow has decided on military action against Kiev. In addition, the adviser to the American president noted that the degree of confidence of the Washington administration in the reliability of the information collected by intelligence is now lower than before.
Not only sanctions
Sullivan warned that if the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border escalated, Washington would use its own levers of pressure on Moscow. At the same time, the national security adviser emphasized, sanctions are only part of the American toolkit.
We have other tools that we can use. These tools relate to the interests and opportunities in the field of security of the Russian Federation
Jake Sullivan National Security Adviser to the President
In addition, earlier US congressmen presented a bill on new anti-Russian sanctions. We are talking about a ban on operations with the primary and secondary public debt of Russia. It is also proposed to introduce restrictions against the Russian banking sector and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. If the situation escalates, the US may also demand that Russia be disconnected from the SWIFT international payments system.
In addition, the Democrats are considering imposing sanctions personally against Russian President Vladimir Putin. They also offer restrictions on Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, as well as commanders of various branches of the armed forces, including airborne and naval forces.
How it all started
In early December 2021, The Washington Post published a map of Russia's offensive against Ukraine. According to US intelligence documents, Moscow plans to deploy 100 battalion tactical groups of up to 175,000 troops to the offensive. A U.S. administration official said on condition of anonymity that the scale of the force is “twice the size we saw last spring during Russia’s operational exercises near Ukraine’s borders.”
Sources in NATO and the security services told the German publication Bild that the attack could take place in late January or early February. At the first stage, it is planned to enter from the south of Ukraine to ensure supplies to the Crimea, as well as to cut off the country from the sea.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow plans to involve 100 battalion tactical groups of up to 175,000 troops in the offensive.
Later, the Financial Times (FT), citing analysts, described two scenarios of a possible Russian “invasion” of Ukraine at once. The first was pinpoint airstrikes on Ukrainian territory. According to experts, Moscow can launch air strikes on military and infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. In this case, cruise and ballistic missiles may be involved, with which the Ukrainian air defense systems “will be difficult to cope.”
The second scenario involved a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts say that option is less likely, as Russia will need more troops to carry it out, many of whom could die as a result.
Moscow's position
The Russian authorities have repeatedly stressed that the Kremlin has no aggressive intentions. In particular, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the information about a possible invasion an empty and unfounded escalation of tension.
Russia has never been the first to attack anyone. Remember history. They wanted to make us a victim, but, thank God, no one succeeded
Dmitry PeskovPress Secretary of the President of Russia
The speaker of the Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko, also spoke about Russia's lack of plans to invade Ukraine. According to her, 80 percent of Russians consider Ukrainians to be a brotherly people.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov at a press conference following recent negotiations with the United States on security guarantees in Geneva also said that the Russian side had assured the United States of the impossibility of an escalation on the Ukrainian border. Also, American diplomats were pointed out the fact that the maneuvers of Russian troops are conducted within the territorial borders of Russia.
