Main points
- Vladimir Putin fears Russia's ultra-nationalists who want to continue the war, but more dangerous are Russians who want peace but are frustrated by the lack of victory.
- Abbas Gallyamov argues that Putin's support will fall significantly after the end of the war, when victory is not achieved.
Vladimir Putin is afraid of Russia's ultra-nationalists, who want to continue the war against Ukraine and are ready to go to the end. However, he knows how to deal with them.
Much more dangerous for the Kremlin dictator are the Russians, who now allegedly want peace, but the lack of victory will greatly disappoint them. This opinion was voiced to 24 Kanal by political strategist Abbas Gallyamov.
“The fall will accelerate”
Abbas Gallyamov noted that the majority of Russians want negotiations to end everything. But if Putin comes to them without a victory and gives them peace, they will not be delighted with the so-called head of the Kremlin. They will be disappointed, because the Russian dictator initially created high expectations.
They are against the war, but in the current situation. At the moment when it seemed that victory was already close, then, according to my estimates, no less than 50%, perhaps more than 60%, were for the war, he said.
The majority did support the invasion of Ukraine. But they were ready for an easy and beautiful victory. When it became clear that it would be necessary to pay a huge price for it, in particular, to them personally, the level of support for the war fell sharply. But they remember what they were promised at the beginning. When peace comes, Putin's support will fall significantly.
While the war is going on, the defeat has not yet been recorded, then there is supposedly hope. Therefore, there is no collapse yet. There is a gradual decline. When it is recognized that it was not possible to win, then the decline will begin to accelerate after some time. Not at one moment, but in 3-5 months after the end of military actions, everything will quickly go down, – the political strategist suggested.
The loyalty of the security forces to Putin is also not absolute. In particular, it depends on public opinion. If people hate the dictator, the government relies only on the security forces, and Putin becomes dependent on them. Therefore, the Kremlin dictator continues to try to fight, while worsening the situation in the economy and so on.
By the way, The Telegraph wrote that Putin continues the war because he may be afraid of a revolution. The Kremlin dictator is not afraid of a democratic revolution, but of the radical wing inside Russia – the ultra-nationalists. It is noted that Putin is deliberately betting on the nationalists, since he considers them a potential threat to his own rule. At the same time, independent Russian polls indicate that the war is quite unpopular among the population.
