Alexander Litvinenko explained which regions the Kremlin dictator will lose influence over if he loses in Ukraine.
President of Russia < strong>Vladimir Putin hopes that victory over Ukraine will help him regain control of the former Soviet republics on the principles of Russian imperialism that both preceded and followed the communist era. The Kremlin understands that if Ukraine falls, it will be easier to return other former Soviet republics. If Ukraine holds out, it is a matter of time before Russia loses influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Alexander Litvinenko, wrote about this in a column for The Economist magazine.
“By attacking Ukraine, Russia believes that it is simultaneously at war with the West. Putin is hoping for a domino effect. He believes that if the West, and above all the United States, suffers a crushing defeat in Ukraine – a second such humiliation just a few years after the disorderly exit from Afghanistan – it will quickly lose global influence,” he noted.
According to Litvinenko, revisionist states that look at Ukraine would see this and conclude that their the time has come.
“As a result, within a few years, a new, multipolar world order will be established, where the most important issues will be decided by a number of competing large states, including Russia. Xi Jinping, the leader of China, the strongest competitor of the West, is closely monitoring the war and is making conclusions,” writes the intelligence officer.
Russia knows that the victory over Ukraine it seeks will have a global effect, noted the chairman of the Foreign Intelligence Service. He added that Russia understands that it cannot achieve its goals there without disrupting the world order.
“Russia and its proxies enjoy great privilege. They are fighting with brute force to create a new global order, while many in the West seek to use soft power first to preserve the old one that emerged after cold war. It has long been known that those who rely on force to implement the new have a significant advantage over the admirers of the old, who, by and large, voluntarily limit the means of achieving their goals,” the intelligence officer notes.
At the same time, if Russia fails to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, its global goals will be significantly undermined. Therefore, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service is convinced that strengthening the defense capability and security of Ukraine and ensuring the stability of society and the state is the easiest and cheapest way for the West to stop Russia and other revisionist states.
“Today, Ukraine is capable of repelling Russian aggression with adequate military and economic support from the West. This support will remain effective if it is long-term (until the cessation of Russian aggression) and comprehensive (including political, economic, military and intelligence support, as well as assistance in countering and disinformation),” summarized Alexander Litvinenko.
Recall that EU representative Peter Stano said that during the presidential campaign Putin will intensify aggressive actions against Ukraine.
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