International experts assessed the aggravation between Yerevan and Baku and predicted a possible development
The military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh escalated again. On the night of September 13, the states exchanged accusations of provocations and shelling.
Foreign relations experts on the TSN Youtube channel said that Russia could use this conflict to show itself as a “peacemaker” and divert attention from the war in Ukraine.
Political scientist Aleksey BuryachenkoThe expert believes that “there was certainly no way without a Russian trace” – “either from Armenia, or from the Russian Federation.”
“This will psychologically allow the Russian Federation to speak of itself not only as an aggressor state, a state “occupier and terrorist state. In this context, it will change certain public moods. Russia will be perceived by a certain part of the population in a specific conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a peacemaker,” the political scientist explained.
According to Buryachenko, Putin hopes that other CSTO countries will join this process in order to get their support, including in the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
“We saw at the last CSTO summit how all countries refused to even speak about Ukraine, not only to help Putin in this attack on Ukraine,” the expert recalled.
“Therefore, I see a Russian trace here and the full involvement of the military in this conflict – the CSTO, the Russian Federation, and so on. It will definitely not benefit either Armenia or Azerbaijan,” he said.
International expert < strong>Bogdan Ferens expressed concern that the escalation of the conflict could divert the attention of the world community from the events in Ukraine.
“The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh may determine how much attention, especially of the Western community, will be to the war in Ukraine, unfortunately … We will observe – if the intensity continues to increase for two days, then there are prerequisites for a protracted war. If there is a reaction soon and If they try to return to the ceasefire and consultations, it will be more useful for us,” he explained.
According to the expert, in the context of Ukraine, “I would not really want attention to be refocused on this part.”< /p>
At the same time, Ferens considers the conflict to be expected, as Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the favorable moment to strengthen its position in the region.
“Azerbaijan understands that at the moment the most favorable conditions are to move further and further. Their tactics are that they are moving and gaining ground with the help of such intensity, which are very important for controlling another part of Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said.< /p>
As Ferens noted, “now, given that Russia is completely in a large-scale conflict with Ukraine and is losing its reputation, image and military potential radically, Azerbaijan has begun to act.”
What the parties to the conflict are striving for< /h2>
Director of the Center for Middle East Studies Igor Semivolosstressed that such aggravations between Azerbaijan and Armenia “may happen from time to time.”
“The whole intrigue is as follows. Until 2025, Russian peacekeepers should be in the territory of Karabakh, which is not controlled by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is interested in getting rid of these peacekeepers in 2025. But for this, it needs to resolve the key issues of this conflict, that is, to take control of the whole of Karabakh. .. Azerbaijan is persistent in this activity, in particular, through forcing Armenia to understand that it will not be able to create a military power that is capable of somehow restoring its presence in these lands in the future, that is, to force Armenia to recognize the fact of final defeat and recognize this agreement,” he said.
The expert said that Armenia, in turn, “is doing everything to avoid such steps, and believes that the best strategy is to drag out time.”< /p>
“Time dragging is a permanent Russian presence, and under the patronage of the Russian presence, the military capabilities of the Armenian army can be gradually restored. This is such a very simple combination,” Semivolos added.
Details of the new escalation
The conflict on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia escalated again on September 13, information appeared about the shelling of military facilities in the border area.
Azerbaijan made an official statement about the aggravation of the situation. Baku notes that the responsibility for the escalation “lies with the military-political leadership of Armenia.” Baku accuses the Armenian armed forces of “large-scale sabotage”. In turn, official Yerevan claims that Azerbaijan “started attacks on Armenian territory in four directions.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin and said that the Azerbaijani armed forces had fired from artillery and large-caliber weapons, and called such actions unacceptable.
The Armenian prime minister subsequently called French President Emmanuel Macron, to whom he also complained about Azerbaijan.
The Security Council of Armenia decided to turn to the Russian Federation for help in connection with the aggravation on the border with Azerbaijan. Also, the Security Council of Armenia decided to officially apply to the CSTO and the UN Security Council.
On the morning of September 13, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that it was in “close contact with Baku and Yerevan”, between which an agreement was allegedly reached on a ceasefire from 09:00. However, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan confirms the information about the ceasefire.
Armenia stated that as a result of the escalation, the number of victims has already reached 49 soldiers and is not final. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan also announced losses among the personnel.
As you know, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been going on since the 1990s. The previous serious episode was extinguished in the fall of 2020, when Russian peacekeepers were brought into Karabakh.
A new round of the conflict took place in March 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the hopes of Ukrainians that the Russian Federation would get bogged down in a new war and ease the pressure, did not come true.
On July 17 of this year, the President of Azerbaijan accused Russia and Armenia of violating the agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. According to him, the Russian Defense Ministry did not fulfill its promise to ensure the withdrawal of the Armenian military from Nagorno-Karabakh until June 2022. In early August, the region “rushed” again, then somehow managed to resolve the situation.
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