Collective immunity from coronavirus will appear one day, its formation alone is hampered by the emergence of new mutations of the infection, experts interviewed by RBC said.
They commented on the words of the head of the information center for monitoring the situation with coronavirus, doctor Alexander Myasnikov, on the Telegram channel. He stated that herd immunity will not be formed in Russia, since even in countries with a high proportion of vaccinated people, the dynamics of the number of sick people does not decrease.
Immunity does not protect everyone from recurrent disease, however, herd immunity depends on the variability of the coronavirus, Sergei Voznesensky, associate professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the RUDN University, told RBC. “If the virus continues to mutate, the herd immunity will be untenable, the herd immunity will not protect against the disease,” the scientist said.
Voznesensky also did not rule out that at one moment such a strain of coronavirus may appear, from which the vaccines developed today will not be able to protect. According to him, this will not be a critical problem, since scientists can “refine” vaccines, taking into account mutations, so that they remain effective.
Voznesensky added that in this case, humanity will be regularly vaccinated against coronavirus, as is the case with the influenza virus. “Most likely, the new coronavirus infection will become the same seasonal illness as the flu, so herd immunity will form after vaccination,” he said.
Vitaly Zverev, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Microbiology, Virology, Immunology of Sechenov University, also pointed out the danger of mutations for the formation of herd immunity in an interview with RBC. The scientist said that sooner or later, immunity will still be achieved. However, how quickly this happens depends on the effectiveness of the vaccines, the spread of the virus and the duration of immunity after the illness, he said.
“There is reason to think that the immunity will be long enough. And if serious mutations do not occur, then sooner or later herd immunity will be acquired, ”said the virologist. According to him, in order to achieve herd immunity, it is necessary that 80% of the population have antibodies.
The head of the Ministry of Health, Mikhail Murashko, said at the end of January that in order to stop the spread of coronavirus, it is necessary to form herd immunity at the level of 60% of the country's adult population, or 68-69 million people. According to RBC estimates, as of August 20, 40.5 million Russians were vaccinated with at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 32.9 million people were fully vaccinated.
In early August, First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Health Viktor Fisenko predicted that herd immunity at the level of 80–90% in Russia will be formed in “a few months”. Head of the Center. Gamalei Alexander Gunzburg also admitted that the required level will be reached by the end of the year.
Over the entire period of the pandemic in Russia, more than 6.82 million people fell ill, died, according to the headquarters, 179,243. Over the past day, 19,630 coronavirus cases have been identified, 820 people have died, it follows from the data of the headquarters.
