If 30,000 Ukrainian refugees remained permanently living in Estonia, this would delay the decline in the population of Estonia by more than 20 years.
War refugees living in Estonia will rapidly increase the population, but in the future the population will start to decline due to low birth rates and, according to the current long-term forecast, due to uncompensated immigration.
This is stated in the report of the Center for Monitoring the Development of the Chancellery of the Estonian Parliament, reports ERR.
The center, which analyzes the long-term development of society and the economy, has compiled demographic scenarios for the stay in Estonia of 10 thousand, 30 thousand and 60 thousand refugees from Ukraine.
“Since the war is going on in Ukraine, it is difficult to predict the number of refugees and the time of their stay in Estonia,” said Magnus Piirits, an expert of the Center.
According to him, the refugees living in Estonia will rapidly increase the population, but in the future the population will begin to decline due to low birth rates and, according to the current long-term forecast, due to uncompensated immigration. Currently, the population of the country is 1.3 million people.
As of the end of April 2022, according to the Police and Border Guard Board, more than 35,000 Ukrainian refugees arrived in Estonia.
< p>“Because there is a war going on in Ukraine, it is difficult to predict the number of refugees and the time they will stay in Estonia,” Piirits said.
Based on the Eurostat baseline population forecast, the Development Monitoring Center estimated the impact of refugees on the Estonian population up to 2100 based on three scenarios.
“The fact that refugees remain in Estonia delays, in particular, the population decline. 10,000 refugees will keep Estonia's population larger than usual for nine years, 30,000 for 22 years and 60,000 people for 40 years,” adds Piirits.
According to him, in 2100, as a result of 10,000 refugees staying in Estonia, the population would increase by 13,000 people, 30,000 refugees by 39,000 people, and 60,000 by 78,000 people.
“From the point of view of the labor market, an important indicator is the ratio of older people to people of working age, which will improve significantly by 2050. War refugees will feel good in Estonia in the long run, since a third of the refugees are children, and the level of education of adults corresponds to the Estonian average,” said Piirits.
According to preliminary data from the Social Insurance Board, about 50% of refugees aged 30-34 have higher education, that is, the level of education is as good as the average residents of Estonia.
Recall, President of Poland Andrzej Duda said that Russia must pay indemnities to Ukraine because of the war. Speaking in the Verkhovna Rada, the President of Poland promised to do everything possible for Ukraine to become a member of the European Union.
