Russia is making significant efforts to influence talks about allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons.
Even a small number of successful long-range strikes by Ukraine could have asymmetrical consequences for Russian forces.
This is stated in a new report Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Russian authorities appear to be making significant efforts to influence the Western debate over allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to launch long-range strikes against military targets in Russia. These Russian efforts reflect deep concerns about the operational pressures that such strikes against Russia would entail for Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, although U.S. officials remain hesitant about allowing Ukraine to launch such strikes,” the ISW noted.
Analysts cited a New York Times (NYT) article, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that U.S. intelligence assessments downplay the impact of Ukrainian strikes against Russia using long-range missile systems provided by the U.S., Britain, and France.
There are concerns in Russia that moving ammunition depots and other critical storage facilities beyond the front lines and beyond the reach of Western-provided systems will affect offensive capabilities in Ukraine. And officials close to senior Russian diplomats recently suggested that Putin may be hesitant about the impact of his nuclear rattling on Western policymakers. However, ISW does not rule out that the head of the Kremlin may continue to use such rhetoric if he assesses that “information operations will continue to have at least minimal influence on Western policymakers.”
“The benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range systems against Russia may outweigh the risk of Russian retaliation more than Western policymakers realize. Western media have repeatedly reported that the United States and other Western governments are hesitant to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied systems to strike targets in Russia due to preliminary assessments that the risk of retaliation for such strikes outweighs the potential benefits that Ukraine could gain from such strikes,” the report says.
American analysts note that the Kremlin has been conducting covert operations against Western states long before talks began about Ukraine using long-range systems. ISW does not rule out that the Kremlin may intend to step up these operations, since “this could support the Kremlin's other goals of destabilizing European countries and undermining NATO's military readiness.”
Recall that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy allowed for when Ukraine might receive permission.
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